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Monday, May 23, 2022

Georgia, USA, Early Voting -- May 23, 2022

Georgia, US: voting. If you are not following this story, you are missing a huge story. Early voting is surpassing all past turnouts -- by a large, large margin. In Georgia, a red state, folks are turning out en masse for one of two reasons:

  • to show their support for Joe Biden and $6-gasoline; or,
  • to register their disgust with where things are headed: inflation, $10-gasoline, and $9-bacon.
  • so, we'll see.

Then this news story which suggests that the Biden administration is watching the Georgia turnout and is getting desperate:

  • mainstream media is reporting that the White House is considering waiving smog rules on gasoline to lower pump prices. No link. I have the link but I want folks to look for this story for themselves, to fact-check my reporting. I got the story from a reader, thank you very much.

Energy transition is dead when you start waiving smog rules for gasoline. Even Trump did not do that.

Greta: "WTF?"

Off The Net -- Watching The NASCAR Race From Last Night -- May 23, 2022

The full race being aired again on FS1 -- Fox Sports One -- what a treat. 

The All-Star Race, Texas Motor Speeedway.

Speaking of sports -- that PGA Championship yesterday was perhaps one of the best PGA finishes ever. It was like two pugilists going the distance. Justin Thomas looked whipped, but the adrenaline rush from the crowd re-invigorated him to the point he could lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

The Wanamaker Trophy, named after businessman and golfer Rodman Wanamaker, stands nearly 2.5 feet tall and weighs 27 pounds. 

The trophy was lost, briefly, for a few years until it showed up in 1930 in the cellar of L.A. Young and Company. 

Ironically, this cellar was in the factory which made the clubs for the man responsible for losing it, Walter Hagen. Hagen claimed to have trusted a taxi driver with the precious cargo, but it never returned to his hotel. There is a smaller replica trophy that the champion gets to keep permanently, but the original must be returned for the following years tournament.

Hagen's version: akin to "the dog ate it." 

I only posted this so I could type "Wanamaker" -- since the analysts must have mentioned this trophy 8,347 times yesterday if they mentioned it once. 

I guess the Wanamaker is to the PGA what the Stanley Cup is to the NHL, except the Wanamaker was lost for a time. LOL.  

And how many moms name their kids Rodman? Before "Dennis Rodman" was a thing?

Wow, I think it's time to go back to reading some good literature. I'll start with Djuna Barnes Nightwood.

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words -- May 23, 2022

Link here.

Comments on the Legacy Fund later. 

The daily activity report

NDIC has made major strides in getting their website back up. There are still some glitches and thus no new data to post for today. The daily activity report was not posted today.

WTI: fell to $109.80.

And that's about it.  

Apparently there's some news story out there about President Biden being happy with high gasoline prices because it suggests the transition to renewable energy is going well, especially for those who enjoy can afford $6-gasoline. 

I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall listening to some staffer "explain" this to the president who has probably never driven a car in his life -- except for that 18-wheeler he used to drive "back in the day" -- which wasn't a car -- but you know what I'm trying to say.

Business News While I Was Out -- May 23, 2022

Carmax: for the first three months of this year --

  • CarMax: made $465 on each car sold
  • Carvana: lost $3,255 on each car sold
  • link here.

Arby's: will now sell hamburgers. Link here.

Starbucks: will follow McDonald's out of Russia. 130 stores. Link here

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Something To Watch

Detroit Diesel on strike watch. 

Interesting bit of trivia here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

Video Conferencing -- May 23, 2022

A reader asked why I would not invest in Zoom. See comments at this link.

First, some "background." 

This site compares three: Zoom, Google Meet, and Microsoft Teams. That linked site, I believe, is a "google" site. 

That site does not include: Apple's FaceTime, Cisco's Webex, or Amazon's Chime. I assume there are others.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

The reader asked whether I thought Zoom would be around in 30 years, at least in some iteration.

Yes, and that's the problem, in some iteration. No moat. Too many video conferencing platforms. Six of them mentioned above.

As a trading stock, Zoom should be considered. But I am not a trader; I'm an investor. For a trader:

  • volatility is great; and,
  • possibility of company being acquired (even better).

The biggest problem I have with Zoom -- unless I'm missing something -- it's a one-trick pony with no moats. The other platforms are all "divisions" in much larger companies: Google,  Amazon, Apple, Cisco, and Microsoft. These much bigger companies have much deeper pockets; important when it comes to R&D during flush times, and financial support during lean times.

For all the money Zoom has made its founder(s) and owners, Zoom pays no dividend.

And that's why this is not an investment site. We all have different criteria for investing. One of my criteria is dividends. Not absolute but a huge discriminator. 

The video teleconferencing platforms surged during Covid; it's unlikely we'll ever see anything like that again, and if we do, the platforms are already in place. The type of growth we saw in 2020 - 2021 video teleconferencing won't be repeated.  

My wife uses Zoom regularly for one of her virtual meetings. The local school district uses Webex, which I love. The family uses FaceTime for family chats. My hunch: many / most Fortune 500 companies use Microsoft Teams which complements their desktop operating system. 

And finally, when it comes to tech, so many -- thousands -- of investing options out there. Zoom doesn't rise to a level to compete for my investment money. 

By the way, speaking of tech and acquisitions and traders, news today: apparently Broadcom looks to acquire VMWare (Michael Dell).

Disney Theme Parks -- Outrageously Expensive -- May 23, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

DIS: someday, sooner than later, I'm going to start accumulating DIS. I'll be watching at least three things: earnings, of course for the next six quarters, share price, and then if/when DIS starts paying a dividend. With regard to earnings, I will be looking for rate of growth, not just earnings per se. With regard to share price, when that price starts to move up. Would $140 be a good entry point? I don't know, maybe. Dividend is less important than rate of growth of earnings.

  • DIS:
    • one year ago: $200
    • today: $100

But that's not why I'm posting this. I'm posting this because there's another "meme" article on how expensive Disney's theme park in Florida has become.

Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/cost-disney-world-unaffordable-average-american-family. The browser may not support the link; if so, you can copy and paste.

We've talked about this before (at least I think we have -- oh, yes, here it is -- the key words: Disney outrageously expensive).  

Whether [Disney theme parks are] expensive or not is in the eye of the beholder. 

I know I could not afford to go this year if I had a family of four or six (spouse plus three or four children). [Not true: I could afford to go; I just would hate to spend that much money at this point in time.]

However, having said that, when Disney can price the experience at the rate they do, and yet the parks are still filled shoulder-to-shoulder, it tells me one thing: there's a lot of money out there. A lot of money.

On another note, along that line, I can't imagine having not visited Disneyland at least once in my life. 

"Everyone" needs to have the experience at least once, and that experience must come before age 25.

Old folks like me who have seen the theme park -- in my case,  more than a dozen times -- and others over the age of 45 who may or may not have seen the park -- can say they are no longer interested in such things. That's incredibly understandable. I have no interest in ever seeing Disneyland again (or Disney World for that matter, for the first time). But I can't "transfer" that emotional response to others, especially to anyone under the age of 25.

Nine-year-olds still see the magic.

High school seniors taking their dates to Disney theme parks still see the magic.

There's a great book out there, Enemies of Promise. I think folks who try to take that magic away from others are enemies of promise. 

It's possible -- and likely -- a larger and larger percentage of the American population cannot afford a Disney theme park experience. I don't know. I know the vast majority of Americans cannot afford to do this, but the vast majority of Americans cannot afford to do a lot of things.

But if it's an experience of a lifetime, and one wants to do it, one needs to plan for it as such. 

Note: I did not say "the" experience of lifetime, but "an" experience -- one of many experiences of a lifetime, one needs to plan for it

At the link the writer chose the most expensive options to max out the cost of his/her Disney experience, I assume, to make the story that much more sensational. A Disney theme park will be expensive but there are ways to bring that cost down.

But let's say one plans to do what the writer did and spend upwards of $8,000 -- in today's dollars -- for the experience.

Our daughter really, really wants to make sure her two-year twins get the chance to see Disneyland, California. They may decide they don't want to go, but she doesn't want to take that magic away simply because she did not plan.

So, let's do the math.

Start with the goal, or cost in today's dollars: $8,000.

From their age today, two years old, to ten years old, eight years to plan.

8 x 52 weeks = 416 weeks.

$8,000 / 416 = $20.

$20 / week.

So, I opened another Schwab account which I've nicknamed the "Disney Account."

I will deposit $20 / week in to that account.

What can one buy for $20 / week?

  • a week's worth of Starbucks?
  • a bottle of cheap gin?
  • a bottle of mid-priced wine?
  • a softcover book?
  • a cheap haircut?
  • a cheap dinner out for one?
  • half a tank of gasoline?

I'm going to cheat:

  • I'll make the deposit at the end of every month: $100 / month.
  • every six months -- January 31st and June 30th -- I will add an additional amount to bring the total to the highest the account has ever been up to that point .. if that makes sense.

These Items Previously Discussed On The Blog -- Others Now Catching Up -- May 23, 2022

First, we have confirmation (for lack of a better word) that now Beijing is concerned. Look at the map. Tianjin is Beijing's port city. Think NYC on the way to Philadelphia, our original nation's capital. Link here.


We've not really talked about this on the blog, but there have certainly been murmurs on the blog and off-line e-mail discussions regarding China and Taiwan after Putin invaded Ukraine. This is a very, very long thread, but well worth it, link here, from the BBC.

Zoom. I wouldn't touch Zoom with a ten-foot hole. It may be a great trading stock, but it's not a 30-year stock. Anticipation:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them
.

Clearing Out The In-Box From Overnight -- Part 2 -- May 23, 2022

America is back! Americans are driving more now than they were pre-Covid -- despite record prices. Link here

Energy transition is dead. Bigger shocks are yet to come. Electricity bills to get much worse. Bloomber, Javier Blas. Link here.

Energy transition is dead. Germany's power contract is heading toward its highest ever monthly level. Javier Blas. Link here.

Clearing Out The In-Box From Overnight -- Part 1 -- May 23, 2022

Most peculiar story today:

  • Biden administration prepared to release home heating oil in the northeast. Say what? In May? Link here.
  • so bizarre, I looked for another link: White House explores tapping emergency diesel reserve.
  • heating oil SPR has only 1million bbls: drop in the bucket; non-story.
  • confusing (?) diesel and heating oil from White House in same day; I don't understand any of this.
  • go to the links and google other sources, if you want; I'm moving on. 

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Grim Diesel

This might help explain things regarding diesel. From Doomberg

Principal among the fossil fuels in its importance is diesel, one of the most abundant products derived from refining a barrel of oil (second to gasoline). Diesel engines are ideal for long-haul truckers and heavy-equipment operators because they provide superior torque at low RPM, critical for pulling heavy loads. Diesel engines are efficient, reliable, and durable. Without the fuel to power these engines, our supply chains would quickly seize up, grocery store shelves would be stripped bare, mining of all critical ores would cease, and riots would soon follow.

An urgent crisis is unfolding in the global supply of diesel – something Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas has been flagging for many months, both on Twitter and in print (emphasis added throughout):

The dire diesel supply situation predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While global oil demand hasn’t yet reached its pre-pandemic level, global diesel consumption surged to a fresh all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2021. The boom reflects the lopsided Covid-19 economic recovery, with transportation demand spiking to ease supply-chain messes.

European refineries have struggled to match this revival in demand. One key reason is pricey natural gas. Refineries use gas to produce hydrogen, which they use to remove sulphur from diesel. The spike in gas prices in late 2021 made that process prohibitively expensive, cutting diesel output.

 The article needs to be archived.

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Global Warming

We'll be seeing a lot of stories on emissions this week, so let's get started.

Reality sucks:

Photo of the day, hypocrisy knows no bounds:

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Chinese EVs

Link here.

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Flashback

By the year 2000 ...

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Ignorance Has No Bounds

Link here.

By the way, as far as I know, the Texas grid held. No rolling blackouts in north Texas. No flickering of lights; no loss of a/c.

WTI Steady At $110; North Dakota Rigs Steady At 39 -- May 23, 2022

WTI: $110.40. Pretty much unchanged since last week.

Active rigs: 39 or thereabouts.

RBN Energy: an honest look at direct air capture's promise and pitfalls, part 9. Yawn. Popular Mechanics stuff. 

At the most basic level, carbon-capture technology is not new, but it has attracted a lot more attention in recent years amid discussions about how best to transition to a net-zero world by 2050. Efforts to ramp up carbon capture have faced a number of hurdles, however, including the difficulty in capturing some emissions at the point where they’re generated. That’s where direct air capture (DAC) — which essentially works as a large-scale air filter and can be located just about anywhere — comes into play. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the still-emerging technology and its limitations, a project in Iceland that is the largest currently in operation, and plans by Occidental Petroleum to make Texas home to the world’s largest DAC facility.

Focus On Fracking — May 22, 2022

 http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2022/05/spr-at-34-year-low-total-us-oil-at-17.html.

A must-read.

A great update of the SPR. More later.

A great update of US refining.