With five minutes to go:
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Word of the Day
Sfumato: the technique of allowing tones and colors to shade gradually into one another, producing softened outlines or hazy forms.
The EIA may reflect this data later this week.
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ISO NE
I'm sure this has happened before but I can't recall. If so, not often.
ISO NE is at a fairly moderate demand of 13,519 MW.
Price: upwards of $110 / MWh.
But look at the fuel mix:
Could be a long, expensive summer.
This is a pretty good wrap. I don't care for the fonts or the graphics but the data is pretty good. I'm impressed.
On top of everything else, Putin's most interesting unintended consequences:
US getting incredible experience and training in Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting.
Amazing.
From the linked article:
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has 9,730 personnel permanently deployed throughout Britain, an increase of 22 percent from six years ago.
Analysis by Declassified has found that Britain hosts the third-highest level of USAF personnel of any country in the world, ahead of historic U.S. military outposts like South Korea and Italy. [Italy?]
These American airmen have in recent years flown bombing missions to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya from their bases in Britain.
“The USAF presence in Britain isn’t just some remnant of the Cold War, it’s ongoing and very active,” Kate Hudson, chair of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), told Declassified.
The USAF from the Brits' point of view? Oversexed, overpaid and over here. Yeah. I know. Not original.
Some of the best years of my life were in England: RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, RAF Menwith Hill.
Did President Xi get the memo?
Back to global oil, link here:
Is DIS a buy?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
How many superhero movies do you need to see to fully process what’s happening in “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”?
Marvel’s latest blockbuster isn’t just a sequel to a “Doctor Strange” movie from six years ago. It’s a concatenation of storylines, characters and references that tie back to at least a half dozen other movies and TV series.
Want to know how Stephen Strange started messing with the parallel dimensions known as the multiverse? Watch last year’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”
What about why an all-powerful witch named Wanda is wreaking havoc? Her motives are explained in “WandaVision,” a nine-episode Disney+ series released in early 2021. For extra credit, refer to 2015’s “Avengers: Age of Ultron.”
Fully understanding Doctor Strange’s emotional baggage, meanwhile, requires you to know what he did in a 2018 “Avengers” movie that caused half the population to vanish. Even grasping the significance of certain cameos requires adding the animated “What If…?” TV show to the syllabus, Marvel completists might suggest.
This canon has fired a debate about how much prerequisite viewing Marvel releases actually demand, and whether the studio should cater to audiences who haven’t done the homework.
Since its launch in 2008 with “Iron Man,” the Marvel Cinematic Universe has expanded to 28 movies. Next up in July: “Thor: Love and Thunder,” the fourth movie dedicated to the hammer-wielding god (not counting his starring roles in other big releases). The MCU’s interconnectivity of plots and characters helped it become a huge force in mass market entertainment.
Some releases do work as standalones, including three Disney+ series in a row with new characters, starting with the recent “Moon Knight.” And with an opening-weekend haul of $450 million worldwide for the new “Doctor Strange,” the Marvel juggernaut shows no signs of slowing, especially as non-franchise titles often struggle at the box office. But if future installments grow more and more self-referential, do they risk alienating people who don’t keep up?
I normally don't like sort of stuff, but I thoroughly enjoyed the "first" Dr Strange.
Folks may want to take another loook at Disney+ and DIS.
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Spider Man
Tonight, Spider Man is all over Hulu. LOL.
Is Spider Man part of the MCU?
You had to ask.
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Loki
Disney+. Again.
Russia's western front.
Link to Peter Zeihan. Or direct to Forbes.
Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, appear to have pushed Russian troops east past Ternova, a settlement on the Russian border.
If confirmed, the Ukrainians’ liberation of Ternova could mark an inflection point in Russia’s 10-week-old wider war in Ukraine. In late March, Ukrainian forces drove Russian invaders from northern Ukraine. Now it appears they’re driving the invaders from northeastern Ukraine, too.
Heavy fighting continues around Izium, south of Kharkiv—and also around Kherson on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. The Russians late last month briefly advanced around Kherson before stalling out. And Russian battalions more recently have captured a few settlements around Izium.
But those Russian gains are in jeopardy owing to Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million just 25 miles from Russia. As the Russian front collapses around Kharkiv, it could free up powerful Ukrainian brigades to push south, toward Izium, potentially tipping the fighting there in Kyiv’s favor.
Tesla investors are different than those who invest in Ford, GM.
The former are living the dream; don't care about margins, free cash flow, profits, dividends, or moats. The latter -- those who invest in Ford, GM -- tend to watch these things.
The former invest in a dream, not a stock. The latter tend to look at their options: GM or F or 15,000 other ticker symbols.
Wells Fargo understands that.
This doesn't mean that GM and/or F are not great trading stocks.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
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Amazon
Probably no hurry. FOMO? Nope. YOLO? True, but crude oil super cycles are rare as hens' teeth.
I remember doing the same back-of-the-envelope analysis in the early days of the blog and coming up with similar numbers.
Link here. Or direct to paywalled MarketWatch.
Link here. Or direct to paywalled Bloomberg. Dos Bocas. Two mouths. Far southeast coast of Mexico.
"Original" estimate: $12 billion.
Over-budget by $5 billion.
Or compare with Georgia's (US) newest nuclear plant: 250% over budget. [Update: March 7, 2023 -- unit #3 has reached critical mass and soon to go "live."]
Why do I get the feeling that on July 15, 2022, we're going to wake up to a Breitbart headline with GOP breathlessly irate that the president was asleep at the wheel and that the American public was never warned that there would be shortage of oil, sort of like their breathless faux anger that mothers were never warned of a baby formula shortage .
Russia, post Putin's War
PARIS—Western pressure on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine lowered the country’s crude-oil output by 9% in April and reshaped the global oil market as Russia sought new buyers for its production outside the West, the International Energy Agency said.
Russia’s lost supplies amounted to 900,000 barrels a day in April and are expected to grow by a further 600,000 barrels a day this month—totaling around 1.5% of the world’s oil output when the invasion began. An oil embargo being considered by the European Union, the biggest destination for Russian crude, would likely push those losses to as much as 3 million barrels a day from July, bringing Russian oil production to its lowest level in nearly two decades, the IEA said in its monthly report Thursday.
The West’s response to the Russian invasion has scrambled the global oil market and hit Russia hard. European energy buyers have turned away from Russian diesel and other refined products, forcing Russian refineries to cut output and slash purchases of crude oil, the IEA said. India and Turkey have stepped in to become big buyers of Russian crude, allowing Russian exports to hold steady this year. But that hasn’t been enough to offset the drop in Russian domestic demand for crude oil and the end of exports to the U.S. and the U.K., which have both imposed sanctions on Russian oil.
This story lacks any real detail but one small bit of trivia helps.
California to spend $5.2 billion on electricity reserve to avoid blackouts.
But not much is said with regard to "creating a strategic electricity reliability reserve."
Except for this one paragraph ready for parsing:
But renewables and California's electricity exports have also stressed the grid.
The Reserve will be developed using existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire, new generation, new storage projects, clean backup generation projects, customer side load reduction capacity that is visible to and dispatchable by CAISO during grid emergencies, and diesel and natural gas backup generation projects—which the budget document stressed would have emission controls and all required permits.
Of note were two items in that list: "existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire" and "diesel and natural gas backup generation projects".
"California electricity exports"? From nuclear plants due to be retired?
This looks like a list of stuff designed to hide where the bulk of that $5.2 billion will go: to diesel and natural gas.
The committee, of course, knowing the pushback they would get, "stressed that diesel and natural gas backup genertion projects would have emission controls and all required permits. LOL. That's nice. All required permits.
This is what Chevron, et all, heard: "blah, blah, blah, blah, more diesel and natural gas back up, blah, blah, blah, blah.
We'll have to wait for the details but I was surprised to even see the word "diesel" in a California budget request.
This suggests how bad things may be in California.
Breaking: Shanghai will start re-opening this week. All things being equal, very, very bullish for oil. Reminder: WTI at $110.50.
Also, bullish for Apple, Inc.
Now, back to the new Covid-19 vaccine: Novavax confident its vaccine will receive FDA authorization in June after delays. Link here.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Just think, Warren Buffett bought "Snow" when he could have bought Devon. Whatever. My advice: take the loss. Buy DVN. See disclaimer.
From SeekingAlpha, April 14, 2022: Devon Energy was the #1 performing equity in 2021.
The company has an incredibly strong portfolio of low-cost assets and an ability to generate double-digit shareholder returns starting at $70+ WTI.
Devon Energy is tracked here.
Fast forward one year: Devon Energy named world's fastest growing oil and gas brand.
Go direct to Hart Energy. Archived.
Following the completion of its merger with WPX Energy and increasing focus on ESG, Devon Energy’s brand value has tripled to $2.3 billion, a new report shows.
Oklahoma-based Devon Energy was named the world’s fastest growing brand in the oil and gas sector due to higher commodity prices and an increased focus on addressing ESG priorities.
Following the completion of its merger with peer WPX Energy last year, Devon’s brand value tripled to $2.3 billion and the U.S. shale producer made it to the list of the world's top 50 oil and gas brands for the first time.
The original report is found here. Look how Devon Energy stacks up with some big names.
Ranking based on revenue, I assume:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
From the linked "original report."
Devon (brand value triples to US$2.3 billion) was the fastest growing brand globally in the oil and gas sector.
Devon’s brand value tripled and was ranked as one of the top 50 oil and gas brands in the world for the first time as a result of the completion of its merger with peer WPX Energy last year.
As a result, the combined brand value has increased substantially, with the combined brand focusing on on-shore exploration and drilling in the continental USA, primarily in the Delaware Basin of Texas, and to a lesser extent, operations in New Mexico and North Dakota.
The brand is benefiting from higher commodity prices and an increased focus on addressing environmental, social and governance priorities.
I do not know if this their policy any more, but at one time Netflix was closing accounts in which subscribers had not watched anything on Netflix for two years. Those subscribers, all of a sudden, were no longer paying their annual subscription fee for a service they were no longer using.
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Perhaps Less Happy: France, Next Winter
Link to Julianne Geiger: France's power sector further strained by extended outages and repairs. This is not just a problem for France, but for the entire continent and the UK.
France, Europe's largest power exporter, could be left scrambling to import power this winter. France typically sends power to the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain—and could soon find those countries rivals in its quest to purchase power to sustain itself through the demanding winter months.
France generates more than 70% of its total electricity from nuclear power.
The extended outages and repairs will create a strain in the market that is in addition to the strain caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy- and financial-related sanctions on the aggressor.
This winter, Bloomberg said, the winter electricity flows to the nations France typically supplies is set to be reversed, as power prices within France are pushed higher amid less supply.
The upcoming winter is what Phil Grant, Partner at Baringa Partners, has called "fascinating".
Germany had openly chastised the European Commission for its decision to classify nuclear investments as climate-friendly. Germany has plans to shutter all of its nuclear plants by 2022, whereas France sees nuclear power as a necessary step that will allow the country to move away from fossil fuels.
May 13, 2022:
May 12, 2022:
May 11, 2022:
May 10, 2022:
