All's Not Quiet On The Western Front -- May 15, 2022

Russia's western front. 

Link to Peter Zeihan. Or direct to Forbes.

From David Axe:

Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, appear to have pushed Russian troops east past Ternova, a settlement on the Russian border.

If confirmed, the Ukrainians’ liberation of Ternova could mark an inflection point in Russia’s 10-week-old wider war in Ukraine. In late March, Ukrainian forces drove Russian invaders from northern Ukraine. Now it appears they’re driving the invaders from northeastern Ukraine, too.

Heavy fighting continues around Izium, south of Kharkiv—and also around Kherson on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. The Russians late last month briefly advanced around Kherson before stalling out. And Russian battalions more recently have captured a few settlements around Izium.

But those Russian gains are in jeopardy owing to Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million just 25 miles from Russia. As the Russian front collapses around Kharkiv, it could free up powerful Ukrainian brigades to push south, toward Izium, potentially tipping the fighting there in Kyiv’s favor.