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Tuesday, April 26, 2022

No New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed; Earnings: GM, MSFT Report -- April 26, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Abbott's War: apparently Federal judge rules for Texas with regard to new abortion law; I haven't followed the case. Waiting for mainstream media to report. Right now, only Fox has reported the story.

  • apparently Idaho "following" footsteps of Texas

Putin's War: Russia shuts off natural gas to Poland. That sounds like just the beginning. Germany ready to ban Russian oil "completely" within days.

US oil exports to Russia: link here

Even as Biden administration takes more steps to hobble US oil production. Today it's Alaska. It's almost as if Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde running domestic policy for the US.

API: huge surprise? I guess it's a surprise if you thought it would be a draw. Larger than expected build.

  • forecast: 2.167 million bbl build; actual: 4.784 million bbl build (not sure if this is correct; multiple sources; here's one) -- looks like best site.
    • yup: forecast of a 2.167 million-bbl build; in fact, much greater: a 4.78 million-bbl build
      • that's almost a million bopd that could be exported to Europe
    • EIA to report tomorrow
  • previous: a draw of 4.496 million

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

MSFT earnings after close: live blog.

  • topped revenue expectations
  • revenue of $49.36 billion beats consensus $49.02 billion (yawn); beats by 0.63%
    • $4.36 billion vs $49.05 billion
  • EPS beats by 0.98%; 
    • $2.22 reported vs $2.20 expected
  • operating expenses rose 15% y/y
  • revenue growth of 18%
  • all I can say: at least it met expectations.

GM after close: Detroit News.

  • EPS beats by 25.33%
    • EPS: $2.08 reported vs forecast, $1.68
  • boosted earnings guidance slightly; semiconductor supplies improving;
  • revenue: $36 billion reported vs forecast, $37.11 billion
  • sales in first quarter: 512,846 vehicles
    • vs Toyota: 514,592 vehicles;
    • for Toyota, a 15% decline y/y
    • last year, Toyota dethroned GM as America's top-selling automaker
      • outsold GM by more than 114,000 vehicles in 2021 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$102.30
4/26/202204/26/202104/26/202004/26/201904/26/2018
Active Rigs3614296463

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:

  • Hess (7): three EN-Abrahamson permits in Mountrail County; four BB-Olson permits in McKenzie County.
  • NP Resources (2): two Little Mo Federal permits, Billings County;

Closer Look At Hunt's Blue Ridge Well In Green Lake; Moderate Frack With 71 Stages; Unremarkable Well -- April 26, 2022

The well:

  • 38386, 212, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H3, Green Lake, some production reported; 71 stages; 13.4 million gallons; appears to be the first bench, TFH; total depth, 19,863 feet; two sections:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022289755955264009952924227107
BAKKEN1-202221471045813251936411383481
BAKKEN12-2021143491361628652341712962121
BAKKEN11-2021288652830655119918019327248

************************
Other Wells 

 The wells:

  • 38385, A/F, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7-H2, Green Lake, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 40K 2/22;
  • 383586, A/drl, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H3, Green Lake, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 27K 2/22;
  • 38387, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H2, Smoky Butte,
  • 38388, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H3, Smoky Butte,
  • 38389, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H4, Smoky Butte,
  • 27185, going north, 125, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H-1, Smoky Butte, t5/14; cum 97K 2/22;
  • 27186, going south, 54, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H-1, Green Lake, t5/14; cum 122K 2/22;
  • 38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5, Smoky Butte,
  • 38350, A/F, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H 4, Green Lake, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 27K 2/22;
  • 38349, 496, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H 5, Green Lake, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 273K 2/22; two formations (?) but only one lateral drilled; 71 stages; a very small volume, 5.2 million gallons; oh, I see what happened; error on the spreadsheet, just happened to show the production twice. These things seem never to be corrected.

Full production

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022271307412984605991210930789031
BAKKEN2-2022271307412984605991210930789031
BAKKEN1-202220875886733610462342375959
BAKKEN1-202220875886733610462342375959
BAKKEN12-2021228965871539253898634095577
BAKKEN12-2021228965871539253898634095577
BAKKEN11-202125790788753997116775353113244
BAKKEN10-202173409212548045824608246

A Closer Look At Three Oasis Wells In Willow Creek -- April 26, 2022

The wells coming off the confidential list today:

  • 38140, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 12-8H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 34135, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX, Camp, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 90K 2/22; 

Of interest to me, are a couple of parallel horizontals to the #34135 well:

  • 21902, 4,059, Oasis, Wren Federal 5300 41-26H, Willow Creek, t5/12; cum 356K 2/22, with halo effect seen in 12/21:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202228440744143916848247483517
BAKKEN1-202231478651644866912746534210
BAKKEN12-202131592052263642970860253451
BAKKEN11-20216132612272024244413721028
BAKKEN10-20213100842000
BAKKEN9-2021216011221011
BAKKEN8-202131728678182115501353155
BAKKEN7-2021316001014168621901864271
BAKKEN6-2021301238957158420301539191

  • 21903, 873, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 41-26H, Willow Creek, t5/12; cum 463K 2/22; not affected by the new Fraser Federal wells; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202228171616833847477547010
BAKKEN1-202231177719004820517550840
BAKKEN12-20213117251676352447964405313
BAKKEN11-202128118912601982422441270
BAKKEN10-20213114581313151142373898237
BAKKEN9-2021156686111167342
BAKKEN8-202131166213301941506449680

New Sources For Energy For EU -- April 26, 2022

I don't recall if I posted the link to the article that suggested the EU plans to be "free" of Russian energy (all forms) by 2027.

A reader sent me a note regarding feasibility of doing that, even forgetting about all the environmental issues. One needs to remember that not all energy that the EU relies on comes from Russia. Even by doing nothing in terms of new infrastructure, the EU could significantly reduce dependence on Russian energy. Having said that, not ready-for-prime-time:

Regarding the feasibility of the EU ending all Russian energy imports by 2027, there is another article that I was going to post but did not because the article was too mundane/esoteric, but Germany is accelerating plans for LNG import facilities. 
These new facilities take a few years to build after permit approval (which is pretty much being thrown out now) but floating LNG import terminals, modular, can be brought in in months, if not weeks.

So, there will be many options. [Think how quickly the US converted LNG import facilities to export facilities a few years ago, and how many new LNG export facilities the US has added to those over the past few years. The US has one huge "harbor" -- Texas/Louisiana for all of this; the EU has many ports/many options, going counterclockwise, from Poland to the Netherlands to Germany to France, to Spain, to Italy.]

In addition, many more articles on going back to more drilling in the North Sea, and even the Netherlands / Groningen for natural gas is getting a re-look.

Right now, the environmental concerns are on the back burner, very much like the John Kerry - Nancy Pelosi - Jen Psaki explanation for increased drilling (but very little); a few pipelines (but very few); and, a bit more rail to transport fossil fuel. 

The  bottom line for me is to what I alluded in this post: Russia has joined a very exclusive club composed of itself, North Korea, and Cuba. There may be a few others seeking membership (e.g., Iran, Venezuela). 

Based on what I'm reading in social media right now, the EU's goal to end all Russian energy imports could happen much more quickly than anticipated. It's much more "will" than "way," as in, "if there's a will, there's a way."

Germany and Austria are generally seen as the "hold-outs" (again, in general reading of social media) but Germany is being "shamed" into going along with the US. Austria may be a "lost cause." 

On a completely different note, there are three arenas on which to focus:

  • economic
  • diplomatic
  • military.

Without question, the military is probably running the show with short-term goals, while diplomacy has long-term goals, all being bridged by the bankers and industrialists with long-term economic / short-term financial goals. 

But right now, without question, the US military-industrial complex is the huge winner in all this (see below). 

I think everyone saw the article regarding a new book coming out on the rocky relationship between Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Clearly, the pundits are correct: Joe Biden has a much bigger opportunity -- by doing almost nothing -- to be a more transformative president than Barack Obama. 

As good as the "Brian Williams" tape, link here:


****************************
The Military-Industrial Complex 

Link here.

Student Driver Sticker -- April 26, 2022

Updates

Later: we do have the placards. Very sensible placards. My wife approved.

Original Post 

Olivia, our soccer-playing granddaughter is now taking driving lessons. 

I will be driving to Walmart this a.m. -- actually biking to Walmart  this a.m. -- to get one of those yellow "student driver" stickers.

This is one option:

Another option:

I'm looking for this one:

************************
The Medical Page

A reader sent me this story: how breast cancer spreads to other parts of the body.

Many of the questions asked below are, no doubt, answered in the research regarding these genes. 

  • an NR2F1 gene prevents pre-malignant breast cells from spreading to other parts of the body
    • two immediate questions
      • is the NR2F1 gene "generally" found in all men and women?
      • is the NR2F1 gene "specific" for pre-malignant breast cells or "all/most/some" pre-malignant cells, regardless of origin?
  • however, another gene, the HER2 gene suppresses the NR2F1 gene, allowing pre-malignant breast cells to spread to other parts of the body:
    • again, the immediate questions:
      • is the HER2 gene "generally" found in all men and women?
      • is the HER2 gene "specific" to the NR2F1 gene? Most likely, yes.

After that, so many questions [later: a lot of these questions have been answered; from another non-medical news source].

  • right now, it appears researchers are suggesting using the NR2F1-generated protein as a diagnostic tool, not a therapeutic tool. Why?
    • that is easy to answer, but most likely the research will lead to using NR2F1-generated protein as both a diagnostic and a therapeutic tool, a two-fer, as it were.
    • but if only used as a diagnostic tool, my conspiracy theory antennae are raised.
  • how does either the NR2F1 gene or the HER2 gene mediate its action? Obviously through a protein but exactly how?
  • what is the "go-between" protein coded for by the NR2F1 gene and what is the target site on the pre-malignant cell, 
    • because those are perhaps the two best things on which to focus
    • develop a simple molecule that when ingested in pill form (or injected directly into the bloodstream) would have the same "lock-and-key" site for the protein mediated by the HER2 gene
  • how "universal" is the pre-malignant breast cell "target" site ["lock-and-key"] with regard to other pre-malignant breast cells, or is unique only to the breast cell?
  • "why" would the body "evolute" an NR2F1 gene? That question  might be a bit easier to anser than the next question:
  • "why" would the body "evolute" an HER2 gene?
  • did genetic precursors to these two genes have other, more general, roles in human development millennials ago?
  • how do we know this isn't fake news, like the Covid-19 vaccines?


Other links:

  • News Medical Net, April 26, 2022: an explanation why a small but significant percentage of women with early-stage breast cancer never progress into an invasive breast tumor but instead die after their pre-malignant lesion reoccurs only in other organs. This explains why testing for a certain protein in all women after a certain age may be similar to testing for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in men as a screening tool.
  • NCBI.NLM.NIH, online July 29, 2019
  • wiki entry: I didn't see NR2F1 mentioned at the wiki entry. I believe I read somewhere that NR2F1-breast cancer represents about 30% of all breast cancer. I have no idea if this is accurate; if that was old information; where this issue stands now. I'm also not sure why all the media interest all of a sudden in April, 2022; NR2F1 has been "around" for some time, although the HER2 news might be a new development.

Holy Mackerel: Apple iPad Pros On Sale -- Amazon -- April 26, 2022

Link here.

Highlights in this sale include the tablets with higher storage that are seeing new all-time low prices, like the 1TB Wi-Fi 12.9-inch iPad Pro for $1,599.99 ($199 off) and the 2TB Cellular 12.9-inch iPad Pro for $1,999.99 ($399 off). 

At this much of a discount, the 2TB Cellular 12.9-inch iPad Pro is now the same price as the 2TB Wi-Fi model, so this is a great time to buy the cellular device.

But why buy "cellular"?


 Word of advice: before buying from Amazon, check your local Costco.

**************************
The Sports Page

Boston Celtics: a sweep. Wow. 

NASCAR: I saw most of the race but then missed the finish on Sunday due to family commitments. I saw the re-airing of the race yesterday. Wow, Eric Jones (#43) really "blew it." How did he manage to lose the race in the last quarter of the final lap. Chastain (#1) played it perfectly. Huge lessons learned by the top five going into third turn before the finish.

****************************
The Book Page

How the disappearance of the dinosaurs created an hospitable world for humans.

Link here. My notes on the book will be recorded here. From the preface:

Biologists still argue about what the definition of life truly is—reproduction, growth, movement—but the one amazing fact that we are confronted with every day is that life is incredibly, irrepressibly resilient. Every organism alive today is tied together, each life connected to the one before it. Even as we acknowledge that 99 percent of all species that once lived are now extinct, our world is still brimming with organisms that have survived, evolved, and thrived in their own ways.

From the foggy and sometimes dim windows of the fossil record, paleontologists have estimated that about 75 percent of known species that were alive at the end of the Cretaceous were not present in the next sliver of time. As if to drive the point home, a band of clay packed with the metal iridium marks the boundary between the  Age of Dinosaurs and the opening chapters of the Age of Mammals. In some places, such as eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, you can follow the story layer by layer, watching the likes of Triceratops disappear as a world of diminutive fuzzballs begin to flourish in a new Age of Mammals.

The book: The Last Days of the Dinosaurs: An Asteroid, Extinction, and the Beginning of Our World, Riley Black, c. 2022. 

Riley Black:

Who she is, what she does:

Riley has been a fossil fanatic since the time she was knee-high to a Stegosaurus. Her evolution into a science writer and amateur paleontologist was only natural. Based in Salt Lake City, Utah, right in the center of dinosaur country, she chases tales of vanished lives from museum collections to remote badlands.

A prolific writer, Riley wrote her popular Laelaps blog for publications such as WIRED, National Geographic, and Scientific American for more than a decade. Her fossil-filled tweets have led Business Insider to call her one of the top "science social media wizards" and HLN to dub her one of "Twitter's 8 coolest geeks", as well, and she was the host of Parallax Film’s Dinologue. And in a childhood dream come true, Riley was also hired to be the "resident paleontologist" for Jurassic World

Riley Black sounds like the J.R.R. Tolkien of the "dinosaur world." 

I absolutely don't need this book, but I just ordered it from Amazon, and it will be at my door this evening. 

Look at the copyright date, and look at today's date:

Putin's War -- April 26, 2022

All indications, the "tea leaves," with regard to "military ops" going forward, use whatever analogy you want, but these all fit:

  • Ukraine becomes the "next Korea" -- a war that was never declared and never ended;
  • Ukraine becomes the "next Vietnam" -- never declared but finally ended where the US lost
  • Ukraine becomes the "next Iraq" -- I've long lost the bubble on Iraq (and no longer care)
  • Ukraine becomes the "new Kurdistan" -- everyone has lost the bubble on Kurdistan
  • Ukraine becomes the "next Afghanistan" -- never declared but US and Russia both lost that one
  • Ukraine becomes the next divided country, west Ukraine / east Ukraine
  • in all cases, prior to Ukraine, neither Russia nor the US shared a border with the country where the conflict existed
  • Ukraine can and will carry the battle to "inside" Russia
  • Putin's War will have greater global impact than all other conflicts noted above combined

Earnings -- April 26, 2022

Because of the market volatility I have not looked at the market since last week and will not look at it until at least a month after earnings season -- so that gets me deep into May. There will be exceptions when I am investing -- accumulating shares -- which I expect will be done on three tranches between April 30, 2022, and May 31, 2022.

Because I am avoiding the market, I will not be checking earnings reports for awhile. Whatever earnings I post will come from social media (generally twitter, SeekingAlpha), from the Yahoo! earnings calendar (rarely) and readers. 

So, here we go: Valero profit surges. Look at this:

  • EPS: beat by 40%
  • revenue: beat by 20%

Apparently WTI is back up over $100 this morning.

Overall, "things" are looking very, very good. 

My investment "attitude" has changed completely.

On The Price Of Gasoline -- April 26, 2022

I was going through my journals earlier today, looking for something which I've now long forgotten what that was, LOL, and ran across this journal entry.

  • cross-country trip from Dallas, TX, to Williston, ND; 2011 Honda Civic with 45K miles
    October, 2013
    • Bowman, ND: gasoline -- $3.449 / gallon for 6.377 gallons = $21.99. 
    • this was my sixth stop for gasoline; I stopped about every time I needed five to seven gallons of gasoline
  • other prices along the way, per gallon, regular unleaded:
    • Guthrie, OK: $3.29
    • Salina, KS: $3.37
    • Grand Island, NE: $3.06
    • Winner, SD: $3.56
    • Belle Fouche, SD: $3.399  
    • Bowman, ND, as noted above: $3.449
    • Williston, ND: $3.399
  • today, about 110,000 miles on that same 2011 Honda Civic (it might be a 2012; bought it in December, 2011)
    • DFW gasoline: $3.79 / gallon; a bit less expensive a bit farther from the freeway
  • total trip: one way
    • 1,496 miles but that included ~ 113 miles in Black Hills / Bowman, ND area sightseeing
    • DFW to Williston, ND: 1,383 miles

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Time Weighted Return On Oil Equities

**********************************
ICE For A Long Time 

Link here

Charts And Polls -- April 26, 2022

Poll: back to the poll at the right -- how many new wind turbines did the US install in CY21? The answer ... drum roll .... seven.  [Later: see comments.]

Yes, seven, which will take us to the graph below.

Link here: the future looks grim for wind turbine manufacturers. The source? Bloomberg. Yes, Bloomberg

********************************
The Graph Below

Link here.

YouGov could have added "new wind turbines installed."

  • true number: 7.
  • perception: 7,000.

Be sure to read the social comments. I find it interesting so many folks are unable to read a "graph." I'm also amazed at folks that don't trust this data. If one doesn't trust the blue dot-data, that's fine; just compare your "estimates" to the red dot-data.


The entire chart is interesting. There is a "natural break" of sorts at line item "live in California." Those line items above "live in California" suggest one thing, those below "live in California" is another thing.

Above the "live in California" line, I still find it amazing that:

  • only 4% of Americans are members of a union;
  • only 5% are vegan or vegetarian

Below the "live in California" line, I find it surprising:

  • 14% of Americans are first-generation immigrants (awesome)
  • education:
    • advanced degree: 12% (impressive)
    • at least a college degree: 33% (very impressive)
    • at least a high school degree: 65% -- it should be 100%
    • half of all Americans have not read a book in the past year -- think about that for a minute
  • own a house: only 49% (that means about 51% of Americans really can't afford an EV, for multiple reasons); I've always thought it was closer to 61%;
  • a large percentage of Americans have never flown on a plane
  • a large percentage of Americans do not own a car
  • I was surprised how many owned a pet
  • line item with highest percentage: owning a smartphone

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Pipeline Story Re-Posted; Blizzard Hit; Oil Holds At $98 -- April 26, 2022

Diesel, NY harbor: east coast (PADD1) diesel inventories are at the lowest levels in 26 years.

  • creates perfect storm for big squeeze;
  • NY harbor ULSD rose to $4 / gallon, equal to $175-oil
  • globally, diesel is tightest of all refined products
  • ISO NE
  • NY ISO
    • Long Island this morning: $81

Market: tight oil market myth becoming reality. S&P Global.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Pipeline: needs repeating. This pipeline to carry as much as one-fourth of all Bakken production from Johnson's Corner, east of Watford City, to national pipeline system. Historic. Gets little notice. 

The question one needs to ask is this: if current takeaway easily meets / exceeds current production, "who" feels we need another pipeline that would carry as much as 25% of current Bakken production, and why to "they" feel that way?

Blizzard outage: up to 60%. Footage, "falling like dominos."

How bad was it. Student are finally going back to school today, Tuesday.

Active rigs, affected by blizzard:

$98.89
4/26/202204/26/202104/26/202004/26/201904/26/2018
Active Rigs20e
14296463

Tuesday, April 26, 2022: 50 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 209 for one year

  • 38140, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 12-8H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 34135, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX, Camp, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 90K 2/22;

RBN Energy: power burn leads lower 48 gas demand gains on limited fuel switching.

Despite the highest natural gas futures prices in over a decade, its use for power generation in the Lower 48 has set records in recent months. This is in part by design: economics and environmental regulation have broadly favored gas-fired plants and pushed into retirement hundreds of coal-fired plants in the last decade or so, reducing price-driven fuel-switching capabilities between the two fuels. However, there’s more to it than that: a tight coal market, marked by low stockpiles, high export demand and record high prices, is limiting gas-to-coal switching even further, making gas burn for power much more inelastic to price. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at this key intersection of the gas and coal markets.

There is no doubt that much of the run-up in natural gas futures prices these days is tied to the strained global LNG market and strong demand for U.S. LNG exports. LNG export terminals ran full tilt this winter and feedgas deliveries posted record highs, as new liquefaction capacity was commissioned and the Ukraine war threatened energy security in Europe and heated up global competition for U.S. cargoes. Producers’ muted response to higher demand and prices hasn’t helped matters. U.S. gas production, while posting strong gains compared with winter 2020-21, peaked in December 2021 before falling off in January and stagnated through the first quarter of 2022, and has yet to return to the pre-pandemic high of 96.2 Bcf/d in November 2019. 

The bottom line is that power burn played a significant role in drawing the storage inventory to its lowest level in three years this winter and has the potential to affect storage refill this injection season. Most remarkably, gas demand by power plants achieved these new heights during the winter and now the shoulder season — generally the low-demand periods for power generation — even as gas prices treaded 50%-90% higher year-on-year and hit multi-year highs this winter, and by April, soared to the highest level in more than 13 years (up nearly 150% from last year).

*****************************
Initial Production

The well:

  • 34135, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX, Camp, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 90K 2/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222115804157171980136114324322872
BAKKEN1-2022312530625478330751103996384245312
BAKKEN12-202131443314410135208834775564726112
BAKKEN11-20213001514352463518575784272
BAKKEN10-2021314089393872514662119402633