Sunday Night -- Notes From All Over -- Energy And Otherwise -- April 17, 2022

Oil, Sunday night -- on a weekend in which the Biden administration is seriously considering sending US troops inside Ukraine ...

• Brent: up 1.05%; up $1.17; trading at $112.90;
• WTI: up 0.86% up 92 cents; trading at $107.90.
• natural gas: up 3.41%; up 25 cents; trading at $7.55 

ATT: a long time coming; worth the wait. Link here, Barron's via Yahoo!Finance.  

Investors now have a pair of inexpensive stocks to consider: The leaner AT&T (ticker: T), focused on competing in the U.S. wireless and home broadband markets, and the streaming-centered entertainment company Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). And then the paywall. 

Motley Fool: could WBD become the next Netflix? At the end of the day, it's comparing apples and oranges, and thus even asking the question is a flawed comparison. But then Motley Fool adds this: 

WBD's enterprise value stands at just seven times its adjusted EBITDA target for 2023. Netflix trades at 17 times its adjusted EBITDA for the same year, while Paramount trades at 10 times its adjusted EBITDA.

Based on those valuations, WBD looks very cheap relative to its peers. However, investors should remember that WBD -- like Paramount, Disney, and Comcast -- isn't a "pure play" streaming company like Netflix. 

US Tech Ranked By Dividend Yield -- April 17, 2022

PGA: Jordan Spieth wins a PGA tournament, the RBC Heritage, first play-off hole. he now has 13 PGA wins. 

NASCAR: on dirt track at Bristol tonight beginning at 6:00 p.m. CT.

Now, back to "business." 

From twitter today: US tech ranked by dividend yield. Market cap above $5 billlion.

Inflationary Shock: US Vs EU -- April 17, 2022

Reminder: NASCAR on dirt tonight, Bristol Motor Speedway.  Fox.

Link here.

Putin's War -- April 17, 2022

Link here. 

Russia invaded Ukraine with 7,000 tanks (entire Russian military has 12,000 tanks).

• military hardware: loss of equipment in first four weeks.
• battleship: add one flagship battleship.  

A loss of 500 Russian tanks sounds like a lot, but one must remember, Russia started out with 7,000. Five-hundred is just half of a thousand, and they got six-more-thousand after the first thousand are loss 

The US has given Kiev a third of its entire stockpile? I assume that is not counting the A-10s. 

Three Enerplus Winter Fur Pad Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 17, 2022

The Enerplus winter fur pad is tracked here. 

Coming off the confidential list this next week:

• 37724, conf, Enerplus, Beaver 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	29109	53322
1-2022	34266	56045
12-2021	37660	54735
11-2021	36610	49678

• 37722, conf, Enerplus, Sable 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	25001	45715
1-2022	46292	75698
12-2021	45397	65933
11-2021	35348	47630

• 37721, conf, Enerplus, Ermine 151-94-33C_28H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	23271	42577
1-2022	37982	62112
12-2021	43095	62609
11-2021	34956	47472

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 17, 2022

The wells:

• 37916, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5BR, 
• 38500, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 6-34H2, 
• 37663, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-3H, 
• 36521, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1, 
• 38499, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 5-34H, 
• 38458, conf, Slawson, Machete Federal 1 SLH, 
• 38455, conf, Slawson, Lightning Federal 5-24-13TFH, 
• 37724, conf, Enerplus, Beaver 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	29109	53322
1-2022	34266	56045
12-2021	37660	54735
11-2021	36610	49678

• 37722, conf, Enerplus, Sable 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	25001	45715
1-2022	46292	75698
12-2021	45397	65933
11-2021	35348	47630

• 37721, conf, Enerplus, Ermine 151-94-33C_28H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	23271	42577
1-2022	37982	62112
12-2021	43095	62609
11-2021	34956	47472

• 37011, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 12-28HSL1, Long Creek, no production data, 
• 38457, conf, Slawson, Cougar Federal 1 SLH,  Big Bend, no prooduction data, 
• 38454, conf, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 5-25-36TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 36520, conf, Hess, BB-State A-LS-151-95-1615H-1, Blue Buttes,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	23778	48865
1-2022	25593	41161
12-2021	29876	46081
11-2021	32937	47740
10-2021	19884	9457

• 38533, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 13-34HSL1, Oakdale, no production data, 
• 37013, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 4-27H, Long Creek, no production data, 
• 38532, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 12-34H2, Oakdale, no production data, 
• 38493, conf, Sinclair, Grasslands Federal 14-15-1H, Lone Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	8179	0
1-2022	31315	0

• 38534, conf, Hunt, Quill 145-93-10-3H 3, Lake Ilo, no production data, 
• 37662, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-2H, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	21450	25238
1-2022	28911	30864
12-2021	29700	23382
11-2021	21840	14231

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 17, 2022

Monday, April 25, 2022:
None.

Sunday, April 24, 2022 48 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 207 for one year
37916, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5BR,

Saturday, April 23, 2022: 47 for the month, 47 for the quarter, 206 for one year
38500, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 6-34H2,
37663, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-3H,
36521, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1,

Friday, April 22, 2022: 44 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 203 for one year
38499, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 5-34H,
38458, conf, Slawson, Machete Federal 1 SLH,
38455, conf, Slawson, Lightning Federal 5-24-13TFH,
37724, conf, Enerplus, Beaver 151-94-33C-28H,
37722, conf, Enerplus, Sable 151-94-33C-28H,
37721, conf, Enerplus, Ermine 151-94-33C_28H,
37011, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 12-28HSL1,

Thursday, April 21, 2022: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 196 for one year
38457, conf, Slawson, Cougar Federal 1 SLH,
38454, conf, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 5-25-36TFH,
36520, conf, Hess, BB-State A-LS-151-95-1615H-1,

Wednesday, April 20, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 193 for one year
None.

Tuesday, April 19, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 193 for one year
None.

Monday, April 18, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 193 for one year
38533, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 13-34HSL1,
37013, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 4-27H,

Sunday, April 17, 2022: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 191 for one year
38532, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 12-34H2,
38493, conf, Sinclair, Grasslands Federal 14-15-1H,

Saturday, April 16, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 189 for one year
38534, conf, Hunt, Quill 145-93-10-3H 3,
37662, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-2H,

A Record -- I Missed It -- April 17, 2022

Link here. 

I'm sure this was widely reported in the press but somehow I missed it.

Remember:

• March, 2020: the global lock downs begin

US natural gas exports: link here.

Tesla Beats -- Tesla Meets -- Tesla Misses -- April 17, 2022

Tesla (TSLA) misses its "whispers number."

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) reported fourth quarter earnings of $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.72 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.26 per share on revenue of $15.75 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2021. The Earnings Whisper ® number was $2.71 per share. Revenue grew 64.9% year-over-year. 

So:

• the miss was with regard to the "whispers number";
• otherwise EPS beat;
• revenues just slightly below expectations;
• most interesting: revenue growing 65% year-over-year.

CAPEX Is A B**** -- For Investors Only -- April 17, 2022

 Link to WSJ. 

Blue Oval -- April 17, 2022

From Garrett Golding:

The Green Page -- ESG Failed Its First Big Test -- Barron's -- April 17, 2022

Link here. 

From "Themes."

The energy transition is dead. Tracked here. 

• ESG is dead, too. Tracked here.

Energy Transition is dead. 

I don't subscribe to Barron's but that may be what I may think about as a birthday present. But then I read somewhere that Barron's has really gone downhill. I don't know.  

I Honestly Don't Know What To Make Of This, But I Have My Hunches -- April 17, 2022

Updates

April 19, 2022: not said in the note below -- the Keystone XL would have carried heavy oil from Canada -- the "right kind" of oil now needed by the US. Absolutely fascinating. 

April 19, 2022: the comment below reminds me of our days in Germany buying heating for the first time; quite an experience.

April 19, 2022: see first comment -- for starters, this "US heating oil: $3 / gallon"

A couple weeks ago I was billed $1,040 for 204 gallons ($5.10 / gallon). A friend in New Jersey was heating his house by buying at the diesel fuel pump; their HO price was at $5.38 a gallon, with a 100 gallon minimum.

My sense is that it ties to the loss of Russian oil...you get more diesel per barrel out of a heavy crude than you do from a light one...that also explains the SPR release... 

... as I commented elsewhere earlier today, my guess is this: the 1 million bpd release is meant to offset the loss of Russian oil, both for the US and Europe… 

... remember that the administration’s first frantic moves were to try to get Venezuelan oil and even Iranian oil back on the market to cover that? 

Russian Urals is a medium heavy sour crude, and for refineries that were built to use that kind of crude, one has to find an equivalent grade to replace it, or do some expensive blending of other grades to match it…the SPR is 60% heavier grades, so I'm assuming that’s why they’re pulling it out…most oil we get from shale is sweet and light, typically more expensive, but worthless when one is trying to replace Russian oil losses.

Original Post 

Link here. 

First question: how much is the US producing? Link here. Answer: yawn.

• CNBC: suggesting it's a refinery issue. Perhaps. I don't buy it.
• mainstream media simply ignores the elephant in the room
  

Second question: how much is the US exporting? Link here. If this doesn't surprise you, nothing will.

Third question: why? In round numbers,

• US heating oil: $3 / gallon
• Germany: $6 / gallon

Most Astonishing Number Reported In 2021 -- New US Offshore Wind Turbine Installations

Link here. 

Update: in the original poll, I was referring to the linked story above. The linked story referred to offshore wind turbines. 

Seven offshore wind turbines were installed by the US in 2021 according to The Wall Street Union.