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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Putin's War Of Attrition -- April 12, 2022

One can follow Putin's War from a number of angles: political (genocide); economic (the war's impact on Russia's economy); and, of course, the military aspect. 

I track the economic aspect and the military aspect elsewhere.

In the twelve years or so of blogging, I've only posted a handful of blogs of which I'm pretty proud. The Vietnam analogy, March 26, 2022, was one of those posts. The other was the Devon post.

I was reminded of that again today with this story that appeared in The Washington Post in the last twenty-four hours, as noted by Peter Zeihan

Look at the "heavy artillery" that the US is sending to Ukraine at this link

Putin's War is going to end up being a war of attrition for the Russians. For Putin, there is no longer any end game. 

This is almost the "perfect" war for the US. The longer this war lasts, the worst it will be for Russia. I'm not saying the US will purposely let the war drag on. In fact, one can argue that the US has little impact on how long the war lasts; it will end when it ends. But each week the war drags on, Russia's economy is set back one year. 

The military hardware and soldiers lost to date by the Russians is incredible. Putin has limited resources for re-supply. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have an "unlimited" military resupply. 

*******************************
The Politics Of Putin's War

It goes without saying that Biden is gaining politically from this war. Polls suggest the majority of Americans are buying into Biden's assertion that America's high-priced gasoline and inflation and a recession, if there is one, can all be blamed on Russia. 

No Daily Activity Report Today -- NDIC Office Closed Due To Global Warming -- April 12, 2022

Guyana: so profitable for Exxon, it's investing another $10 billion on the play. Link to Matthew Smith

  • estimates: 10 billion bbls of recoverable oil resources

Oil: prices hold despite large build, weekly API report. EIA data tomorrow morning.  From Josh Young:

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$100.90
4/12/202204/12/202104/12/202004/12/201904/12/2018
Active Rigs3717366359

An XTO Pelton Well That Maintained Incredible Production Over Three Years -- April 12, 2022

The well:

  • 34159, 277, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35GXH, API 33-025-03382, Bear Creek, t1/19; cum 361K 2/22;

Full production here. 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222814968150221602245464409224538
BAKKEN1-2022311734117535177964113340697430
BAKKEN12-2021311930019179183643565334839808
BAKKEN11-202130190501869120292298132971394
BAKKEN10-20213931107126061321129526
BAKKEN9-2021168515882988931302112448570
BAKKEN8-2021311807017974202672621925650559
BAKKEN7-20213121002213692081331531294772046
BAKKEN6-20213021134208362114530046255364499
BAKKEN5-20213120092202552069828122182709840
BAKKEN4-20213021489215452173630370030358
BAKKEN3-20213121272212492196729895029882
BAKKEN2-20212820095198372118426946026934
BAKKEN1-20213116332159911685218798018789
BAKKEN12-20206192218721719172501724
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-2020005620000
BAKKEN9-20202225814253232382932781032764
BAKKEN8-20204170316321539178301782
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-2019001170000
BAKKEN8-20191387008793127801102766164385
BAKKEN7-20193117463176752582021324911112177
BAKKEN6-20193014123140312094718373146473687
BAKKEN5-2019311303013029204721493468148074
BAKKEN4-20192818895190372821324214880415361
BAKKEN3-20191619234187631867315178502410118
BAKKEN2-2019104360000
BAKKEN1-2019344103407510169318

Random: Updating Wells That Came Off Confidential List Three Years Ago --April 12, 2022

From three years ago:

Sunday, May 20, 2018: 55 wells for the month; 144 wells for the quarter

  • 34158, SI/NC, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35D, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 33826, SI/NC, WPX, Mandaree South 30-31HQ, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 32024, SI/NC, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 

Let's update those wells.

The wells:

  • 34158, SI/NC, XTO, Pelton Federal 11X-35D, Bear Creek, t1/19;  cum 224K 2/22; initial production:
BAKKEN8-201926290752913323538370502222814734
BAKKEN7-201931372183746629305472141994227192
BAKKEN6-20193023311230571653725727197285936
BAKKEN5-20193117437174301231018651838310210
BAKKEN4-201928249532492817641303541103619256
BAKKEN3-20191016755163451106719774654513182

  • 33826, 2,264, WPX, Mandaree South 30-31HQ, Reunion Bay, t5/18; cum 304K 2/22; initial production. Well #19603 in same area just went over 600K bbls crude oil cumulative.
BAKKEN12-20183123458234201193840050372120
BAKKEN11-20183027229272651368333945308470
BAKKEN10-20183122591227041134621756170222099
BAKKEN9-2018271291512426830012864112370
BAKKEN8-2018291175211810810013543120310
BAKKEN7-201821936695088424901855712197
BAKKEN6-20182626857266162728525863160626593
BAKKEN5-20183028060278562172327023483718883
  • 32024, 7,956, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 481K 2/22; initial production. Well #20529 with significant halo effect from this well.
BAKKEN2-20192837934378451713557509551049805
BAKKEN1-20193050879514952489765633581656884
BAKKEN12-2018214453944245158375275064349565
BAKKEN11-20181031785335221642443011041173
BAKKEN10-20181453801514772788854970051948

Oasis Cliff Wells In Willow Creek

Updates

March 27, 2023: Oasis Cliff wells coming back on line; production data updated.

Original Post

The wells:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20223432442241
1-20224256345523
12-20214118338959
11-20213384937219
10-20212751529209

  • 36886, loc-->PNC, Oasis, Cliff Federal 5200 14-5 7BX, Willow Creek;
  • 36885, loc-->PNC, Oasis, 
  • 36884, loc-->PNC, Oasis, 
  • 36883, loc-->PNC, Oasis, Cliff Federal
  • 34135, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20221571732432
1-20222547863842
12-20214410155647
11-202115157578
10-2021393811940
  • 34134, loc-->PNC, Oasis, 
  • 34133, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden
  • 34132, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden
  • 34131, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden
  • 37916, conf, Oasis, Fraser
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20221930211986
1-20222713610657
12-20212556912423
11-20215544227506
10-2021117551845
  • 34130, loc-->EXP, Oasis, Borden, 
  • 34222, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 4B,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222740431677
1-20223388231272
12-20214165635003
11-20213268234431
10-20211952521265
  • 37266, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 5B,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222394629946
1-20222852727594
12-20213322228957
11-20213123633305
10-20212395524946
  • 34336, conf, Oasis, Wren Federal ..
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222225330899
1-20223084132863
12-20212950120106
11-20211890619296
  • 34339, conf, Oasis, Borden ..
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20223693443689
1-20223472037230
12-20214067033351
11-2021247722774
  • 34338, EXP, Oasis, Borden ..
  • 34234, conf, Oasis, Borden ..
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20223539245532
1-20223323835377
12-20213689327514
11-20213068530929
  • 34235, conf, Oasis, Borden ...
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222814734876
1-20223161831957
12-20213563326714
11-20213103033192
  • 34236, conf, Oasis, Borden ....
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20221843523716
1-20222675428206
12-20212896520088
11-20211898919598

The graphic;

Other wells of interest:

  • 20872, 3,694, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 24-34H, Willow Creeek, t9/11; cum 389K 2/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202228439744254504502848030
BAKKEN1-2022313593415846571024933856684
BAKKEN12-202130495835923345989432746451
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-202125744929018758211024
BAKKEN7-202131980911460236010251294
BAKKEN6-20213093594739923351188847
BAKKEN5-20213168990847024591313836
BAKKEN4-2021301397129930227931643850
BAKKEN3-20213112831277525358720841213
BAKKEN2-20212412001158397298117141027
BAKKEN1-202129108112971402292015141106
BAKKEN12-202031102085513725531344899

Global Warming Wallops North Dakota; Bad News: Price Of Natural Gas Stalls At $6.646 -- Up Only 0.05% -- April 12, 2022

Updates

Later, 2:26 a.m CT: US crude oil production will rise at a slower pace than expected. High costs of drilling and completing well. 

Later, 10:51 a.m.m. CT: is it time for the Biden administration to panic?

  • WTI just broke through $101
    • Biden said the massive SPR release would drop gasoline prices at the pump by 10 to 25 cents / gallon
    • his move this week to authorize E15 will have an even smaller effect at the pump; 
      • mostly because folks don't want to put E15 in their tanks -- and I think we've discussed the less energy ethanol-15 actually provides
      • later: here it is -- ethanol is more expensive than gasoline on a BTU basis. How is allowing more a more expensive fuel a good way to lower gas prices? I remember traveling cross-country some years ago and filling up with ethanol-laden gasoline and was surprised to see how much worse my mileage was.

Later, 10: 41 a.m. CT: when OPEC talks, traders listen:

  • Brent: up 6.77%; up $6.67; trading at $105.20
  • WTI: up almost 7%; up $6.57; trading at $100.90

Later, 9:56 a.m. CT: WTI just soared through $100 / bbl; up over 6% in early trading

  • OPEC says it's not going to meet any Russian shortfall
  • the spare capacity story was fake all these years

Original Post

But I'll take the move in the price of oil:

  • oil
    • Brent: up 5.68%; up $5.59; trading at $104.10
    • WTI: up 5.60%; up $5.12; trading at $99.41
  • administration has run out of arrows in its quiver to affect the price of oil
  • maxed out SPR release and that was their last arrow

Grocery note:

  • eggs have gotten very expensive over the past few weeks on the back of the avian flu outbreak;
  • but now, today, it's even worse: Target's egg supply is getting very, very low;
  • I'm keeping up to three times the normal amount of eggs in my refrigerator;

*******************************
Global Warming

Southwest North Dakota less than a week before Easter. This is called a blizzard.

Breaking: Brooklyn, New York, Subway Under Attack -- April 12, 2022

Single suspect fled on foot. 

"Ghost" gun probably not used. 

President Biden needs to ban the use of IEDs in American subways. 

CVX, Apple, PBR, The NBA, And Photo Of The Year? April 12, 2022

Memo to self: USPS first class stamps

  • forever stamps, first class, first ounce: 58 cents
  • July 10, 2022: 60 cents

Market: due to extreme volatility of the market on the down side, I'm not following the market at all right now. 

But having said that, I checked in on CVX today with jump in oil price. CVX is up over $6 / share today. CVX is still well below its 520-week high. We often don't get these opportunities.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

PBR: increased its dividend; now pays 19.5%. Announced April 5. Record date April 18, 2022; pay date, May 23, 2022. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Refiners: cash machines?

  • northern California Chevron refinery: in its third week strike action.

Apple: Mac shipments up in 1Q22 amid worldwide PC shipment decline. Link here

Apple's worldwide Mac shipments were slightly up in the first quarter of 2022. Apple shipped an estimated 7 million Macs during the quarter, up from 6.5 million in the year-ago quarter, marking 8.6 percent growth.

The sports page:

  • playoffs begin
  • play-in games begin tonight
    • San Antonio Spurs tomorrow night vs Pelicans
  • LA Lakers and LeBron James will be watching the playoffs on television or in the stands
    • incredibly hard to believe that LA Lakers couldn't place higher than ten other teams in the 15-team league
    • six coaches in past eleven years since Phil Jackson departed
    • last time they made the playoffs: during the Covid-19 bubble
    • Russell Westbrook: highest paid player on the LA Lakers team
    • this tells me again just how good Phil Jackson as a coach was

******************************
Photo Of The Year?

No trick photography.

Two-year-old grandson did this on his own. His twin brother watches, probably in amazement.

Natural Gas Price Soaring; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 12, 2022

Inflation: March CPI comes in at 8.5% -- much higher than expected a few weeks ago. Highest in 40 years. For the archives.

Pipeline: FERC approves Mountain Valley pipeline; free site but must sign in;

  • as for the pipeline, ho-hum; I'll believe it when I see it;
  • this says it all:

The 2-Bcf/d, 304-mile gas pipeline project is almost complete, but litigation and permitting challenges delayed work on the final pieces. The FERC authorization was conditional pending new approvals from the US Fish and Wildlife Service under the Endangered Species Act, forest crossing authorizations from the US Forest Service and US Bureau of Land Management, and a water crossing permit by the US Army Corps of Engineers
There are probably a few other regulators also involved and each of those will likely end up in court.

OPEC+: will struggle to make up Iraqi, Russian production shortfalls. EnergyIntel

Vaca Muerta: S&P Global -- Vaca Muerta is finally showing signs of big growth.

LNG: Camerson LNG export terminal expansion; recent update; US terminals tracked here.

  • Louisiana
  • jointly owned by Sempra, TotalEnergies, Mitsui and Japan LNG
  • TotalEnergies to raise capacity
  • will expand with a fourth train
  • 6.75 million metric tons per annum
  • a five-percent increase of the current 13.5 Mtpa first three trains

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Blizzard

Bitcoin explosion in the Bakken:

  • a non-story;
  • Crusoe Energy;
  • was an unrelated CNG operation;
  • nothing to do with Bitcoin operations
  • no injuries.

Active rigs:

$98.28
4/12/202204/12/202104/12/202004/12/201904/12/2018
Active Rigs3717366359

Tuesday, April 12, 2022: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 184 for one year

  • 38513, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 3-28H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 38008, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 6B, Willow Creek, huge well; Willow Creek oil field tracked here and updated;

RBN Energy: the supply-demand fundamentals are spurring $6-plus natural gas prices.

  • Key word: "plus."

Prompt CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures prices averaged $4.54/MMBtu this winter, up 67% from $2.73/MMBtu in the winter of 2020-21 and the highest since the winter of 2009-10. Prices have barreled even higher in recent days, despite the onset of the lower-demand shoulder season, with the May contract hitting $6.643/MMBtu on Monday, the highest since November 2008 and up more than $1 from where the April futures contract expired a couple of weeks ago. 
Europe’s push to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas has turned the spotlight on U.S. LNG exports and their role in driving up domestic natural gas prices. However, a closer look at the Lower 48 supply-demand balance this winter vs. last suggests that near-record domestic demand, along with tepid production growth, also played a significant role in drawing down the storage inventory and tightening the balance. Today’s RBN blog breaks down the gas supply-demand factors that shaped the withdrawal season and contributed to the current price environment.

***********************************
Initial Production

The well:

  • 38008, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 6B, Willow Creek, huge well;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20223432442241
1-20224256345523
12-20214118338959
11-20213384937219
10-20212751529209