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Thursday, April 7, 2022

Okay, Time For "Cheers" -- Away From Keyboard -- April 7, 2022

Joining Norm. 

I know folks love their homes and their McMansions, but I absolutely love apartment life. I don't think I would want it any other way, except possibly a little cottage on Flathead Lake. 

If I've posted this once, I've posted it a dozen times:

The Rivers of Babylon

And yes, Linda Ronstadt covered this song, also. Is there anything she did not do that was worth doing?

Active Rigs Up To Recent All-Time High Of 37; One New Permit; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 7, 2022

Inelastic demand: in what appears to be a "bear market," Hershey chocolate traded at an all-time high today, closing near the intra-day high.

Hulu: a bit of the Masters -- looping tonight -- before I get back to Cheers. I have just started the second season. More on this later, perhaps. 

The Book Page: I've almost completed Sebald's The Rings of Saturn. I cannot believe how good it really is. I don't think it's for many but for those who like "Virginia Woolf writing," this is outstanding. Maybe more later.

Sports:

  • PGA: I was quite impressed with the Masters coverage today. Maybe more on this later.
    • best thing so far: haven't had to listen to Brandel Chamblee at all so far today; 
  • MLB: opening day. The only team that matters to me right now are the St Louis Cardinals and they won their opener, 9 - 0, I believe.

LNG projects, link here:

  • FERC grants extension:
    • SRE building two pipelines in Texas and Louisiana
    • to connect to its Port Arthur, TX, LNG plant
  • NextDecade seeks FERC extension
    • proposed Rio Grande LNG project in Brownsville, TX

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$96.84
4/7/202204/07/202104/07/202004/07/201904/07/2018
Active Rigs3715366258

One permit approved, #38874:

  • Operator: Iron Oil Operating;
  • Field: Sather Lake (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: 
    • Iron Oil has a permit for a Antelope well in SWNW 2-148-102, 
      • to be sited 1050 FNL and 355 FWL;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38460, 620, Iron Oil, Antelope 4-17-20H,
  • 38461, 804, Iron Oil, Antelope 5-17-20H,
  • 38614, 1,215, Grayson Mill, Garmann 19-18F 8TFH,

Notes From All Over -- April 7, 2022

Note: CLR's Rolf Federal wells in Brooklyn oil field have been updated. These wells are tracked here.

Jobless claims, link here:

  • first time claims, lowest level since 1968
  • claims come in well below expectations;
  • 166,000 vs 200,000 expected
  • 171,000 prior week
  • was there a bit of manipulation in the data? I don't know. From the linked article:

The number of new claims filed last week marked the least in more than five decades and represented a third consecutive week that new claims were below 200,000. The prior week's new claims were also markedly downwardly revised to 171,000, from the 202,000 previously reported for the end of March. Prior to the pandemic, new claims were averaging around 218,000 per week throughout 2019.

Some of the volatility in the most recent weekly jobless claims data likely reflects a change in the way the Labor Department adjusted the figures to account for seasonal factors. Starting in Thursday's report, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. Over the course of the pandemic, the Labor Department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustment factors, which help smooth out large shifts in the data — as had been the case with the anomalous spikes in jobless claims that took place during the early wave of lockdowns in 2020.

Warren Buffett and HP, why? Link here.

  • with announcement, huge gain
  • From the linked article:

The company squashed analyst profit forecasts for its first fiscal quarter (reported in late February), powered by strong sales of commercial computers and printers. HP said commercial computer and printer sales rose 26% and 9%, respectively, from the prior year.

The strength in commercial computers and printers offset a more muted performance for consumer products. HP said consumer PC sales fell 1%, while consumer printing sales dropped 23%.

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Goin' Fishin'

Off Line Since 2/20, Coming Back Into Production: 16683 -- Federal Jorgenson -- Haystack Butte -- April 7, 2022

The well:

  • 16683, 224, CLR, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H, Haystack Butte, t12/07; cum 71K 2/22 (no typo)
    • was taken offline 2/20
    • newer wells in area have been completed;
    • this well brought back on line; first 28 days, 2/22: minimal production

Meanwhile, another well impacted by newer wells is AB:

  • 18615, 480, CLR, Jorgenson Federal 44-9H, t7/10; cum 525K 2/20;
  • it will be interesting to see if CLR brings this well back into production?

Masters Today; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 7, 2022

Masters: begins today, of course.With all the coverage "he" will get, hardly necessary for the other 90 players to show up.

Jobless claims. Pending.

Global SPR releases:

  • US: 160 million bbls
  • several IEA members: 60 million bbls
  • global demand: 100 million bbls daily

Commodities: could soar 40% as investors pivot

Buffett: takes stake in HP. Stock soars.

Energy transition is dead. Trending today:

  • UK energy security strategy does not include the word "climate"
    • doesn't mention "emissions" or "CO2"
    • it does mention "cleaner" energy
  • Greece: to ramp up coal mining

Equinor - Canada - Bay du Nord oil project: $12 billion project.

  • offshore; proposed by Equinor
  • approved by Canada
  • one wonders: would the US approve a $12 billion offshore oil project? 
  • my understanding: the US is not even approving leases for offshore projects already under development, but that needs to be fact-checked; that may be old news 

EVs:

  • tale of two companies:
    • Rivian yesterday reported about 2,000 EVs produced in 1Q22
    • Chevy Bolt: goal -- 25,000 EVs for full year 2022
  • market cap:
    • RIVN: $35 billion
    • GM: $57 billion
  • P/E:
    • RIVN: n/a (not making a profit)
    • GM: 6
  • and analysts tell us to do our due diligence

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$97.98
4/7/202204/07/202104/07/202004/07/201904/07/2018
Active Rigs3615366258

Thursday, April 7, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 172 for the year

  • 38557, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Pankake 2-6-7-157N-99W-MBH-LL, Dublin, no production data,
  • 36103, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, producing,

RBN Energy: as gasoline prices spike, how do electric vehicles stack up?

Even before the recent spike in crude oil and gasoline prices, the subject of a contentious House committee hearing Wednesday with executives from six large oil and natural gas companies, electric vehicles (EVs) were having a bit of a moment. From legacy brands such as BMW and General Motors to the EV startup Polestar, several automakers used their spots during February’s Super Bowl — the most-watched event on the TV calendar, where the cost for a 30-second ad went for a whopping $6.5 million — to highlight their latest EV offerings. Now, with gasoline prices about 50% higher than they were a year ago (and about 20% higher than they were on Super Bowl Sunday), EVs are getting a whole new level of attention from everyday drivers, not just Tesla fanboys, car afficionados, or the environmentally conscious. In today’s RBN blog, we look at whether the recent run-up in gasoline prices will help turn EVs into a more economical option.

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Initial Production Data

Today:

  • 36103, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222394236859
1-20222996545588
12-20212988643803
11-20213967153241
10-202111770