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Wednesday, April 6, 2022

The XTO Darlean Wells Have Been Completed; First Few Days Of Production Reported -- April 6, 2022

Updates

July 20, 2022
: production updated.
 
June 18, 2022: two of these DUCs have now been reported.

Original Post

The four XTO Darlean wells have now been completed; yet to report IPs:

  • 34937, SI/NCW-->SI/NC, XTO, Darlean 41X-2G2, Alkali Creek, first production, 2/22; t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202223693279624190419
  • 34936, SI/NC, Darlan 41X-2C, Alkali Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022650204454872176847208438
  • 34934, SI/NC, Darlan 41X-2H, Alkali Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022983007364156801402513584370
  • 34935, SI/NC, Darlan 41X-2H, Alkali Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202222772463703250325

The WPX Lion Wells Are Hitting 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- April 6, 2022

This well came off confidential list two years ago, and has now produced over 500,000 bbls crude oil cumulative:

  • 34397, 3,387, WPX, Lion 18-19HA, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 319K 3/20; a 54K month; cum 505K 2/22;

Cumulative production of the other wells on that pad. They were all completed 7/19.

  • 34960, t7/19; cum 516K 2/22;
  • 34396, t7/19; cum 470K 2/22;
  • 34398, t7/19; cum 410K 2/22;
  • 34399, t7/19; cum 400K 2/22;
  • 34400, t7/19; cum 432K 2/22;
  • 34401, t7/19; cum 432K 2/22;
The WPX Lion wells are tracked here.

Season 1, Episode 22 -- 1983 -- Cheers

Remember all that talk about resurgence of Covid through the "new" variant BA.2 less than a month ago? Today it's being reported that "the number of coronavirus cases globally has dropped for a second consecutive week and confirmed Covid-19 deaths also fell last week, according to a WHO report issued today, Wednesday, April 6, 2022.

Tomorrow we will hear cries to "release the Krakken."

Area under the curve. Link here.

How The New Whiting Littlefield Wells Will Impact The Older Lacey Wells In Sanish Oil Field -- April 6, 2022

The Whiting Littlefield wells sited in section 2-152-92, that will drill to the east, for drilling unit, section 1-152-92 and section 6-152-91:

  • 37599, conf, Whiting, Littlefield 41-2HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2022168500
1-20223528025003
12-20213416824609
11-20211872312149
  • 37600, loc, Whiting, Littlefield 41-2TFHU, Sanish,
  • 37601, conf-->loc/A, Whiting, Littlefield 41-2H, Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 107K 2/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202226145321454933481948518648786
BAKKEN1-2022312444424504579029441261153264
BAKKEN12-202131302083030370052196321006898
BAKKEN11-2021303025230191384919065173731630
BAKKEN10-20212172517054749651334590392


That drilling unit is filled with a slew of completed Lacey wells. Of interest:

  • 16902, 2,192, Whiting, Lacey 11-1H, t7/08; cum 532K 2/22: with halo effect; 
  • 24555, 1,993, Whiting, Lacey 21-1H, t4/13; cum 253K 2/22: with halo effect; 
  • 24556, 536, Whiting, Lacey 21-1TFH, t5/13; cum 180K 2/22: no halo effect; 
  • 20452, 728, Whiting, Lacey 12-1TFH, t10/11; cum 193K 2/22: no halo effect; 
  • 37662, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-2H,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222145025238
1-20222891130864
12-20212970023382
11-20212184014231
  • 37663, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-3H,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20221402117337
1-20222213321812
12-20212574021040
11-20212594017083
  • 17326, IA/3,199, Whiting, Lacey 12-1H, initial production back in 2010:
BAKKEN11-2010301166112122468531752570
BAKKEN10-2010187982766341717471553159
BAKKEN9-2010301369514406512768461311493
BAKKEN8-2010311554014974474822665581606
BAKKEN7-20103120059211414601307512913100
BAKKEN6-2010292874428275170716373145911725
BAKKEN5-20107837870395100530316843605

Chillin' -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 6, 2022

It's such an incredibly beautiful day here in north Texas, and I have so many great memories of the granddaughters, I cannot blog about the Bakken any more this evening. Maybe later tonight. 

Wow, this is simply the best time of the year. Days are getting longer. Days are getting warmer. Folks are starting to use the pools. I love daylight saving(s) time. An extra hour of daylight at the end of the day. Tomorrow night, a pound of crawdads. 

For now, Hotel California:

Hotel California, The Eagles 
 
As it came to an end, I thought this would have been covered by Linda Ronstadt, but haven't found Linda Ronstadt covering this song on YouTube (yet).

That was for fun. And a great song. But for a great piece of poetry, nothing beats Leonard Cohen. 

Tower of Song, Leonard Cohen

Tonight is such a beautiful night, just gonna chill for awhile. 

**************************
Group Me

For families and/or athletic teams and/or any group, the best idea out there is "Group Me." Wiki entry here, and app owned by Microsft. Again, how did AAPL miss this one? That's why I accumulate shares in MSFT.

"Group Me" .... not "grope me." 

Our group: all non-driving family members and all non-driving family members -- extended family -- are on on "Group Me" group. We use it exclusively to coordinate ride-sharing / necessary rides / etc. It's really is quite remarkable. 

This technology never ceases to amaze me. 

From wiki:

GroupMe was conceived at TechCrunch Disrupt 2010. 
Founders Jared Hecht and Steve Martocci raised US$10.6 million in venture capital from Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst Partners, angel investors, and others. 
In August 2011, Skype acquired the one-year-old start-up for around $80 million
Skype had itself been purchased by Microsoft in May 2011, with the purchase finalized in October 2011. 
The app underwent a redesign in late 2012. 
Initially, groups were limited to 100 members, but a support request could get a group's limit raised as high as necessary as it approached the limit. In 2019, GroupMe stopped offering group member limit increases; however, the app increased the standard limit from 100 to 5000.

 GroupMe --> Skype --> Microsoft. 

And then look at this:

GroupMe has been used as a means for studying the usage of messaging clients in educational settings. 
Use cases include facilitating online course discussions, small group work, and other course communications for both in-person and online sections. 
Though unconventional, using GroupMe to facilitate discussion in an environment where students already interact has been found to encourage rhetorical thinking and overall engagement
Researchers have found alternatives for literacy learning as a "legitimate academic genre", given a student population that communicates in variety of modes
Research around GroupMe furthers the argument that computer-mediated communication is a valuable space for learning in an increasingly globalized society.

Daily Activity Report Pending -- April 6, 2022

Fun fact: if the Venusians had switched to paper straws sooner, they'd still be here today. How come?
Venus was once Earth-like, but climate change made it uninhabitable: we can't make this stuff up

Sad fact: a NextEar Energy subsidiary has been sentenced to probation and ordered to pay more than $8 million in fines and restitution after killing more than 150 eagles over the past decade at wind farms across the US. Link here.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$96.23
4/6/202204/06/202104/06/202004/06/201904/06/2018
Active Rigs3613406257

Four new permits, #38870 - #38873, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Winner (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits four wells (Dragset, Knox, Knox, and Nash) to be drilled in SWSW 10-158-100; 
      • to be sited between 386 FSL and between 554 FWL and 930 FWL:

Twelve permits renewed:

  • XTO: four Henry Federal permits; four Bully Federal permits; and, four Don permits, all in McKenzie County;

Six permits canceled:

  • Enerplus (5): a Frilled, a Basilisk, a Gecko, a Cayman, and a Lizard, all in McKenzie County;
  • Crescent Point: a CPEUSC Reed permit in Williams County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 33612, 3,158, Grayson Mill, Garmann 19-18F, Banks, no production data,
  • 35497, n/d, Whiting, Cvancara 11-14-2H, Alger, no production data,

Teenagers And The iPhone --April 6, 2022

Be careful with this survey. We cannot see the raw data and there is no link to the report itself. We don't know what the real questions were. 

The survey was taken of teenagers whose family had a median household income of $69,298 and their average age 16.2 years of age.

It appears not to have been an open-ended question, but it looks like the teens were given a list of watches and smart phones from which to choose. Why else would "Rolex" be on the list. See comments at the link.

Most folks who "know" Rolex note that it would be very unusual for any teenager to have a Rolex, suggesting the question was more along the line, "if you could have any watch in the list below, what would it be?"

Be that as it may, from the linked article:

According to the report, 87 percent of surveyed teens in the United States now own an iPhone, and 87 percent expect their next smartphone to be an ‌iPhone‌. In addition, 72 percent of teens already own AirPods.

Apple Watch ownership continues to climb among teens, reaching 37 percent, up from 34 percent last fall. 14 percent of teens now intend to buy an Apple Watch within the next six months.

Apple Watch is now overwhelmingly the most popular watch brand among upper-income teens, with 42 percent of upper-income teens saying that Apple is their favorite watch brand. Apple has gradually climbed up the list of the most popular watch brands among upper-income teens, reaching the milestone of taking the top spot from Rolex in the fall of last year. As of spring 2022, the Apple Watch now stands well ahead of the next three most popular watch brands, with Rolex at 33 percent, Garmin at two percent, and Fossil at two percent.

All Indications Suggest Russia's Economy Will Implode By Summer -- April 6, 2022

Updates

May 31, 2022: Ukraine takes control of all Tatneft assets in Ukraine.

April 22, 2022: Europe bracing for diesel deluge. Why aren't we seeing this in the US, and why aren't diesel prices in the US plunging?

April 21, 2022: update; oil companies pulling out of Russia.

April 12, 2022: Russia's oil production slips below 10 million bopd. So, far this is still an estimate based on early production data in April.

April 11, 2022: the snowball starts to roll. Russian Railway has officially defaulted; and Russia telegraphs it -- the country -- will also default. 

April 10, 2022: Putin's War pushing Russia into insolvency. Ronald Reagan tried to do that with Star Wars; the Russians at that time were smart enough to back out. Now, in less than a month or so, President Biden et al may do what Reagan did not do.  

Original Post

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis: the US can increase LNG exports to Europe. No new contracts or infrastructure are required. 

Update, 7:44 p.m. CT: I wrote the above earlier today. The headline: all indications suggest Russia's economy will implode by summer.

Now this, from the guy who wrote the "bible" on oil: Russia's days as an energy superpower are over, according to Daniel Yergin. 

Based on the comments, a lot of folks disagree with Yergin. I understand where those folks are coming from. So, we'll see. 

I do think world leaders need to think seriously about what has happened the past five weeks.

Gasoline Demand, Implied All Products Demand -- April 6, 2022

Gasoline demand: link here.

US implied continues to decline: just under 20 million bpd, still slightly less than 2019 and 2021 at this point; link here.

People still working at home; driving habits changed during the lock down. Will take awhile to re-adjust. 

And from this site, implied oil demand continues to weaken: 

Ethane: The Forgotten Condensate -- April 6, 2022

I remember when I first started the blog, knowing nothing about "ethane," or "ethane rejection." I had it backwards and a reader tactfully corrected me. 

So, now over a decade later, we're talking about ethane again. 

Link here

Wow, Wow, Wow! Am I Good Or What! LOL -- April 6, 2022

Earlier today, at 9:44 a.m. CT, I posted, before the numbers were posted / before I saw them I wrote:

Number I'm waiting for: amount of crude oil in store measured in days. Report will be released today. 

  • recent high: 41 days back in early March, 2022;
  • trending down the last few weeks after relative "stability"
  • last report, one week ago, at 26.1 days of crude oil in storage (US supplies)
  • my estimate for new number: 26.0 days 

So, what is the number?


Right on the dot. LOL.

WTI Drops Below $100 During Congressional Hearings; The Breakfast Page -- April 6, 2022

WTI: falls below $100, again; down 2.45%; down, $2.50; trading at $99.46.

  • apparently traders are taking the Congressional hearings seriously.

Again, "we" should not be concerned with oil dropping in price. $5-gasoline is not good for the US economy. And I would love to see gasoline at the pump in the US half the price what they pay in France. LOL.

  • California certainly needs to be less than $6 / gallon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Meanwhile, Pioneer Resources, Mike Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha:

  • Back in 2020, Pioneer Resources was one of the first shale oil producers to announce a variable rate dividend policy based on a percentage of FCF. 
  • That policy has massively rewarded PXD shareholders, with the most recent Q1 variable dividend being declared at $3 (with the base dividend, the total Q1 payout was $3.78/share). 
  • Given the current strip, Pioneers says its variable rate dividend policy (75% of FCF after the base dividend payment) could lead to a total dividend payout of $20+/share this year. 
  • At the current price of $244, that equates to an estimated yield of 8.2%.

Later: Pioneer's CEO Sheffield said he expects Permian oil production to rise to 8 million bopd by 2030. That implies an increase of roughly 375,000 bpd a year, or an annual increase of 7% in the first year,of the period, edging down each year to a 4.7% bump in the final year. Link here

To put that in perspective, the entire Bakken produces about a million bopd. Unfettered, the Bakken might produce two million bopd. Continental Resources? 330,000 boepd, or 160,000 bopd. 

By the way, what's PXD doing?

  • trading at about $240; range, over 52-weeks: $134 - $260.
  • P/E: 28
  • yield: 1.3%

DVN:

  • trading at $58; range, over 52-weeks: $20 - $63
  • P/E: 14
  • yield: 6.86%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

*****************************
The Breakfast Page
For The Archives

I've talked about this before. 

Breakfast runs me about $2.00 at home.

  • coffee: depending on the brand, 25 cents to 50 cents per cup, so 50 cents to one dollar; Keurig K-cups: Starbucks, Amazon Solimo, Community, Cafe du Monde (the latter, most expensive; the Solimo, least expensive)
  • eggs: about 25 cents apiece right now;
  • chorizo: 30 cents
  • one slice of toast and butter: inconsequential
  • white bread: $1.19 / loaf, 40 slices? Three cents a slice.
  • home made hash browns (once in a while); one-fourth potato; 75 cents / 4 = 20 cents;
  • orange juice: 52-ounce for $3.99; 4 / 52 x $3.99 = 35 cents 
  • okay, so with everything, at higher price: $2.50 

Some days, just a slice of toast and coffee: $1.00

Other notes from today's shopping:

  • Tom Thumb: I don't shop at our local Tom Thumb; farther to bike; not a pleasant experience; most expensive of my four options;
  • Albertson's: a little farther to ride than Target but has some items I can't get at Target, like much sushi at Albertson's; we've always considered prices at Albertson's better than Target
  • Target: right around the corner; preferred place to shop;
  • Walmart: probably best prices but too far to ride for just one or two items.

Target

  • eggs have gone from $1.19 / dozen to $1.89 / dozen (best price; most were $2.89 - $3.99 / dozen). I was surprised. Did not buy; wanted to see Albertson's prices.

Albertson's eggs across the board more expensive than any at Target.  I could not find the $1.89 / dozen eggs at Albertson's. Best I could find: $2.89.

Chorizo:

  • Target: $1.49
  • Albertson's: $.189

A single potato:

  • Target: 75 cents / pound;
  • Albertson's: 89 cents / pound

Very, very surprised. The few items I checked, Target's prices were better than Albertson's especially with eggs and chorizo.

Eggs at Albertson's: a sign was posted that said eggs have increased significantly in price over the past few months, and that Albertson's was working with suppliers to get price of eggs down. 

The receipts below cannot be used to compare prices. I didn't buy same things at the two stores. 



Ice cream has gotten quite expensive. I don't eat ice cream but I bought a small container for Sophia. Likewise, the chocolate croissants are for Sophia. Voortman sugar cookies are incredible and best bang for the buck: $2.99 / package. I believe we get twelve services from one package, or 25 cents for single dessert.

**************************
The Kitchen Gadget Page

One of the cleverest things I've seen for the kitchen. I ordered it from Amazon about a year ago and love it: it's called a dish drying rack but I use it for slicing fruits and vegetables, but for large pots and pans, it does work great as a drying rack.

When done with it, simply roll it up and let it drip dry.


Week 0: SPR Release -- The Biden Surge -- April 6, 2022

Number I'm waiting for: amount of crude oil in store measured in days. Report will be released today. 

  • recent high: 41 days back in early March, 2022;
  • trending down the last few weeks after relative "stability"
  • last report, one week ago, at 26.1 days of crude oil in storage (US supplies)
  • my estimate for new number: 26.0 days

Before we get started:

  • the big story no one is reporting: price of jet fuel surging now (NYC); spot shortages (Austin, TX); and yet there's a glut of oil;
  • the big story many are reporting but with no analysis: diesel prices surging; relative shortage; and yet there's a glut of oil;
  • refiners have a bit of capacity left; operating at 92.5% of their operating capacity;
  • so, what's the problem? It certainly isn't lack of crude oil.

So, we can use these numbers as the baseline before the Biden Surge begins.

SPR: released 525,500 bbls last week. The Biden Surge: goal to release one million bbls per day

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage increased by 2.4 million bbls from the previous week; so it appears they be putting the SPR-government stored oil into commercially-stored tanks; this tells me the problem is not a lack of crude oil;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 412.5 million bbs, 14% below the five-year average, and probably twice what we need; especially with all that SPR oil about to be released;
  • instead of storing it below ground, we will be storing it above ground;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million bopd, up by 41,000 bopd (yawn); imports averaged 64 million bopd over the past four weeks, 8.9%more than the same period last year;
  • so, we're importing more, and storing more above ground with the SPR release;
  • US refiners operating at 92.5% operating capacity, unchanged from last week; with all the crude oil in storage, why aren't refiners stepping up their game?
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8 million bbls last week; inventories now 15% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel supplied was up 28.9% compared with same four-week period last year 
  • overall report consistent with what API reported yesterday

Gasoline demand to be posted later this afternoon.

WTI after the report came out:  down two cents. WTI trading at $101.90.

Oilprice headline after report: EIA report dampens oil prices. Technically correct. WTI down two cents.

Active Rigs As Reported By NDIC -- April 5, 2022

Noble

1

Hess

BW-Rolfson… 7PA

37140

Nabors B

1

Lime Rock

Narstad … 91

38696

Nabors B

2

BR

Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH

37694

Nabors B

3

Ovintiv

Kramer..13H

38243

Noble

4

Crescent Point 

CPEUSC Fantuz … LL

38805

AES

4

Ovintiv

Calhoun … 15H

38715

Nabors B

5

Summit Carbon Solutions

Slash Lazy h 5

38701

Nabors B

6

BR

Curtis 44-9THF

30923

Nabors X

10

Grayson MIll

Ron 28-33 3H

38821

Nabors B

13

Oasis

Ramirez … 2B

38656

Stoneham

16

Zavanna

Galloway … 1TFH

29781

Nabors B

18

WPX

Wounded Face 14-15HEL

38436

Nabors B

20

Iron Oil

Boxcar 1-4-16H

37896

Nabors B

21

Crescent Point 

CPEUSC Austin … MBH

36513

Nabors X

24

Hess

EN-Reehak … 7

38196

Nabors B

26

Oasis

Foley Federal …4B

36051

Nabors X

27

Hess

EN-Neseet … 6

38732

Nabors X

28

Hess

BB-Budahn…11

38164

Cyclone  

35

Bowline Energy

Shaffer … 6H

36900

Cyclone 

38

CLR

Flint Chips … 5H1

38125

True.

40

Enerplus

Osmium …20H

37984

H&P 

259

MRO

KB 34-8H

38593

H&P 

276

Rimrock

MC 14-11 Narwhal 34H

38698

Patterson 

280

Murex

KC-Dustin David … mB

38765

Unit 

414

Slawson

Armada Feederal 8-14-13H

38665

H&P

429

MRO

Audrey 34-10H

38501

H&P 

454

CLR

Fuller 6-2H1

38369

H&P

456

CLR

Bang 8-4H

38673

H&P

492

CLR

LCU Reckitt…2-22H

37010

H&P 

516

Ovintiv

Kramer … 15H

38248

H&P 

535

Whiting

Ryder Olson 31-1H

38541

H&P 

640

Hunt

Trulson … 3

29791

Patterson

806

Whiting

Lindley 41-7HU

38431

Patterson

808

Whiting

TTT Ranch 11-26HU

38581

Patterson

811

Grayson Mill

Lucy Hanson … 2H

36674

Patterson 

901

CLR

Clear Creek …26H1

37982