Week 0: SPR Release -- The Biden Surge -- April 6, 2022

Number I'm waiting for: amount of crude oil in store measured in days. Report will be released today. 

• recent high: 41 days back in early March, 2022;
• trending down the last few weeks after relative "stability"
• last report, one week ago, at 26.1 days of crude oil in storage (US supplies)
• my estimate for new number: 26.0 days
  

Before we get started:

• the big story no one is reporting: price of jet fuel surging now (NYC); spot shortages (Austin, TX); and yet there's a glut of oil;
• the big story many are reporting but with no analysis: diesel prices surging; relative shortage; and yet there's a glut of oil;
• refiners have a bit of capacity left; operating at 92.5% of their operating capacity;
• so, what's the problem? It certainly isn't lack of crude oil.

So, we can use these numbers as the baseline before the Biden Surge begins.

SPR: released 525,500 bbls last week. The Biden Surge: goal to release one million bbls per day. 

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

• US crude oil in storage increased by 2.4 million bbls from the previous week; so it appears they be putting the SPR-government stored oil into commercially-stored tanks; this tells me the problem is not a lack of crude oil;
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 412.5 million bbs, 14% below the five-year average, and probably twice what we need; especially with all that SPR oil about to be released;
• instead of storing it below ground, we will be storing it above ground;
• US crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million bopd, up by 41,000 bopd (yawn); imports averaged 64 million bopd over the past four weeks, 8.9%more than the same period last year;
• so, we're importing more, and storing more above ground with the SPR release;
• US refiners operating at 92.5% operating capacity, unchanged from last week; with all the crude oil in storage, why aren't refiners stepping up their game?
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8 million bbls last week; inventories now 15% below the five-year average
• jet fuel supplied was up 28.9% compared with same four-week period last year 
• overall report consistent with what API reported yesterday
  

Gasoline demand to be posted later this afternoon.

WTI after the report came out:  down two cents. WTI trading at $101.90.

Oilprice headline after report: EIA report dampens oil prices. Technically correct. WTI down two cents.