Putin's War -- Five Unintended Consequences -- CNBC -- March 29, 2022

I generally don't care for these articles, but this is a pretty good synopsis. It certainly puts things into perspective. 

March 29, 2022: CNBC, five unintended consequences for Russia:

• Russian casualties are high
• estimates: from 1,351 (Russia) to between 8,000 and 15,000 (NATO) 
• Russia lost 15,000 soldiers during the 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s
  
• Ukrainians now loathe Russia
• Ukraine is the ancestral home for Russia; Ukraine is Russia
  
• economic ruin
• besides an impending recession, this war will "wipe out five years of economic growth"
  
• Europe is dropping Russian energy
• to be replaced by US energy
  
• Russia has united the West
• the West's reaction is unprecedented 
  

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The Book Page

We haven't heard yet; waiting. Olivia's soccer team in the second round Texas girl's high school championship. 

 Woody Allen's Lost In Translation in the background. I never tire of watching it.

Thinking about W. G. Sebald's The Rings of Saturn.

The "chapter" on Joseph Conrad is probably some of the best writing I've ever read. The chapter helps, again, to put Putin's War in perspective. 

Later: Olivia's team wins 5 -1. A more competitive game than the score might indicate. Olivia's team advances to the third round. First round to championship game: six games. This was the second game; the sixth will be the championship game.

One New Permit -- March 29, 2022

Interesting: the "slap" appears to have generated an intra-Hollywood "Romeo-and-Juliet-like-family war" with "everyone" choosing sides. 

An informal, non-scientific, anecdotal look at the tweets suggests .... well, I'm gonna stay out of this one. Based on the headlines, it appears "The Academy" has moved on, nothing to see here. Apparently it's the new normal to walk on stage during an awards ceremony, assault someone, and then get a standing ovation. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$104.20	3/29/2022	03/29/2021	03/29/2020	03/29/2019	03/29/2018
Active Rigs	33	13	45	67	60

One new permit: #37860

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Mandaree (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• WPX has a permit for a Samuel Packineau well in NWNW 17-149-93;
•  to be sited 1172 FNL and 1221 FWL

Eleven permits renewed:

• BR: five George permits; a Rollacleetwood, a Phantom Ship, a Mazamaphantom, and Cleetwood, all in McKenzie County; two Gorhman permits in Dunn County.

One permit canceled:

• 28988, Prima Exploration, State permit in Divide County

ISO NE Was Trending Toward $1,000 / MWh Earlier This Morning -- March 29, 2022

Updates

Later, 7:27 p.m. CT: a reader explains how to read the graphics at ISO NE:

 It is tough keeping up with all these rapidly evolving events. 

If you click/tap on the top of that spike on the 5 Minute LMP graph, the precise number will show/display. 

Alternately, one can click/tap the 3 grey horizontal lines atop the graph (the default 'chart' icon is next to it), and one can scroll through all the exact pricings which are recorded in ~ 5/10 minute increments. 

From 5:05 to 5:20 AM this morning, spot wholesale prices were $896/Mwh. Simply insane. 

I checked neighboring PJM's site for comparative purposes, but they have changèd the format so as to be difficult to navigate. However, Real Time wholesale spot at 5:15 PM was $74 in PJM region while New England was over $250. 

[My hunch: this is where the wind turbine companies really make their money.] 

ISO NE: I posted the rush hour commute numbers earlier this morning.

But I missed this. 

Note that electricity costs spiked trending toward $1,000 / MWh:

Currently, ISO NE demand is a paltry 13,000 MW and electricity is still over $100 / MWh. 

Boston will get down to 26°F overnight.

Sinclair Reports A Nice Well In Lone Butte -- March 29, 2022

Updating the wells coming off the confidential list two years ago (2Q20). 

The well:

• 36791, drl/drl-->drl/A, Sinclair, Harris Federal 4-32H, Lone Butte, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 93K 1/22;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	27325	26871	40662	51668	21531	30020
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	28528	28403	45517	51685	21162	30406
BAKKEN	11-2021	23	36910	35978	64473	62849	0	62762

Notes From All Over -- March 29, 2022

Temperature in Boston at noon? Freezing. 32°F. 

Link here to ISO NE.

• at noon, demand is down to an amazingly low 12,691 MW;
• unfortunately, the price of electricity is now climbing, after an earlier mid-morning reversal;
• electricity now at the sixth decile, trending toward $110 / MW. Later: moved from <$110 at noon to >$130 in Boston early afternoon;
  
• oil contribution has dropped from a max of 3% to only 1%, now 
• the interesting thing, coal is back on the chart, albeit barely
  

Oil stocks:

• lesson learned: priced right when penciling in $100-WTI

WTI: back to $102.80 after causing early morning heart attacks and strokes among perma-Perman bulls.

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Energy Transition is Dead

Link here. 

This happened faster than expected. 

Translation: Greater oil production is compatible with energy transition [if it means I'm more likely to keep my job after the mid-term elections.] 

EPA chief just saw this chart -- cost of batteries, link here:

Run, Don't Walk, If You Get A Large Envelope From St Augustine, FL -- March 29, 2022

Unless you are interested in investing in the "Permanent Basin."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Just Having A Market Cap That Exceeds VW Or Toyota Blows Me Away -- March 29, 2022

From social media today:

This data point is even more amazing when you consider high-flyers like Lucid, Rivian, Nio, and Li Auto are on the list of twenty. 

But, at least we now have the list of auto manufacturers that make up the A-20.

Market To Surge Today -- March 29, 2022

OIL: WTI drops below $100. Recovered slightly before trending back below $99. 

Now, maybe folks will start to understand why US shale not eager to spend billions to increase production.

• if EU won't ban Russian oil, it opens the door for China, India to buy Russian oil;
• and no one can criticize / fault China or India buying Russian oil if the EU still openly buys Russian oil
  
• Russian oil selling at huge discounts;
• Biden knew exactly what he was doing or he was very, very lucky: but starting today, folks should start to see lower gasoline prices; 
• US WTI sweet spot: $90 - $100?
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

War in Europe.

Bond curves invert: recession all but guaranteed.

The Fed to get even more hawkish.

Biden's budget will include huge new taxes on the wealthy. 

Tech industry to get huge subsidies from US government. 

Oil prices surging.

Starbucks employees are unionizing.

America is short of workers.

House prices out of reach for all but the most wealthy.

Antarctic ice shelves falling into sea; scientists say oceans could rise 160 feet  but they keep buying water-front properties. And US government still offers catastrophic flood insurance.

Actors slapping each other on live television during awards ceremony.

Energy transition is dead. 

Indices hit six-week highs, and today, the market is going to open even higher.

Kamala Harris is next in line.

Highest appointments in US are now based on sex, race.  

Bacon: $9 / pound.

If anyone can explain this market to me, I would be forever grateful.

The market:

I will be ferrying grandchildren to school this morning when the market opens so I won't see it until I get back, but pre-market:

• BRK-B: up anotheer $3.13 after already hitting new highs;
• AAPL: announces huge smart-phone production cut; unprecedented; shares up $1.21 after small jump yesterday;
• UNP: this one actually makes sense, hitting new all-time highs; new advances slowing;
• QCOM: up an astounding $3.34 in pre-market trading; up over 2%; investors must like the subsidies these tech companies are about to get from US Congress
• SRE: somehow related to natural gas; this $124-company (share price) is now trading for $164;
• T: continues to melt up; pays 4.65%;
• F: up 2%;
• TSLA: announces huge share dilution and shares surge
  

I'm not even going to look at oil. No one likes oil companies when WTI fails to hit $150.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Nothing Like A War To Learn Geography

Link here.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- EU Hasn't Banned Russian Oil -- Nothing To See In Ukraine -- March 29, 2022

Grass is always greener: Exxon again finds no oil in Brazil, but wants to sell its assets in the Bakken. 

Venezuela: rumors Chevron getting closer to pumping, marketing, shipping Maduro oil. Apparently the only thing holding this up is trying to figure out how to explain it to President Biden so he can explain it to the American public.

Austin airport: piss-poor planning. Not enough jet fuel for scheduled flights. This cannot possibly be rocket science. 

Operators must be furious, to say nothing of the passengers. Apparent some inbound flights are landing at Houston first to re-fuel so they have enough for take-off after arriving at Austin. This is truly bizarre. Link here. I wasn't going to post this, but readers have sent me links so I have no choice.

ISO NE: hitting an all-time record for March? Link here.  $500 / MWh electricity.  

OPEC: re-prices -- to the upside -- despite Russian oil being sold at huge discount? Isn't Russia part of OPEC+? Asking for a friend.

Oil:

• Brent: $113.60, in the sweet spot; at risk of overshooting;
• WTI: $106.70, in the sweet spot; at risk of overshooting;

No short-term solution to Europe's oil addiction: link to Irina Slav. The EU continues to finance Putin's war.

• every time oil trends lower, oil bulls panic;
• price of oil no longer matters (don't take that out of context);
• truly unfortunate: while the US and UK have both announced bans on Russian oil imports, the EU has not been able to agree on any such boycott
• but wow, they are fast to fine Apple, Inc, for "app" policies
• Russia provides 29 percent of the crude oil that Europe consumes, as well as 51 percent of the oil products that the continent consumes. And Europe consumes a lot of oil and oil products despite its eager energy shift. But that's not all. Two years ago, the European Union received almost 97 percent of the oil and oil products it consumed from external sources
• in other words, the EU is more import-dependent than India when it comes to oil.
• wow, I remember that post more than ten years ago that Europe would find itself in trouble with regard to this very issue
• this is so incredibly bad, it's beyond the pale; bad decision after bad decision after bad decision; 
• my hunch: Greta won't be on the EU lecture circuit this month; by the way, where's John Kerry?
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$99.60	3/29/2022	03/29/2021	03/29/2020	03/29/2019	03/29/2018
Active Rigs	34	13	45	67	60

Tuesday, March 29, 2022: 48 for the month, 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year

• 37860, conf, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 10-35H2,

RBN Energy: could the US alone meet Biden's call for 15 Bcm more LNG to the EU? 

The Biden administration said last Friday it would help ensure deliveries of an additional 15 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of LNG to the European Union (EU) market in 2022. A frenzy of media articles followed and the targeted increase was widely cited. The April CME/NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract rallied nearly 3% to $5.55/MMBtu on Friday, and the stock price for Cheniere Energy, the largest LNG producer in the U.S., jumped 5.5% the same day. But U.S. liquefaction facilities have already been running full tilt and sending record volumes to Europe. So, what does the news really mean for U.S. LNG exports and the domestic gas market? In today’s RBN blog, we put that 15 Bcm in perspective and distill the key takeaways for U.S. LNG production.

OPEC Basket -- Happy Days Are Here Again -- March 29, 2022

Link here.

And This Is When The Wind Turbine Consortiums Make Their Money -- March 29, 2022

Link here. 

Holy mackerel! I was wrong. In the twelve+ years that I have blogged I have always said that we will never see the price of electricity get into the ninth decile. Wow, was I wrong. Boston did it overnight. 

Look at the overall demand: not all that much.

Oil! 3%. 

Wind contribution is at the highest I've ever seen. Renewables at 12% -- very respectable -- and of that 12%, wind is accounting for 64%. I've never seen wind contribution that high. This is where wind is making its money. Wind is sold on a sliding scale and at this level, the margins are "to infinity and beyond." The other components, oil, natural gas, nuclear, I assume are pretty flat-lined at contractural prices.  A reader might know more about pricing.

Boston, MA: 20°F this morning. Link here.
Bangor, ME: 18°F

From Max Gagliardi: