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Thursday, March 17, 2022

Washington (DC) Incumbents Starting To Panic -- Tea Leaves -- March 17, 2022

Updates

March 18, 2022: more suggestions that IEA (i.e., Saudi Arabia) is also quite worried. IEA specifically says it hopes OPEC+ which includes Russia can ease the market strain. The Brits are saying a complete ban on Russian oil will devastate their economy, and probably the entire global economy.

March 18, 2022: surfing through the news and op-eds, there really does seem to be a panic developing in Washington (DC) with regard to the price of oil. I'm looking through oil-stained glasses, so I am quite biased, but it really does appear to be a lot of anxiety out there among the incumbents. 

Later, 9:57 p.m. CT: I got started late on blogging tonight due to family commitments (it's spring break this weeek). But when I started the original post below, I swear on a stack of Bibles, that WTI was $103.30. You can confirm that by looking at the previous post.

Now, about an hour later, getting ready to close shop, and watch some Perry Mason, I checked WTI one more time. WTI is now $105.80. It's gone up $2.50 in the last couple of hours. 

No wonder folks in Washington (DC) seem to be in a panic.

Jay Powell may wish he had not raised the "fed rate." I guess the way Ms Psaki sees it is that with Jay Powell raising rates, it was time for the CEO of XOM to call the "oil sector of America" and tell "everyone" to raise the price of crude oil.

Original Post

Myth of spare capacity: everybody's talking about it now. Link here

Panic:


When has life been "fair" or "sensible"? LOL. 

It takes a little while for "things" to happen. But this is the timeline. A few weeks ago gasoline prices at the pump started to go up. The elites in Washington (DC) didn't really notice it: it didn't affect them or they simply weren't paying attention, or maybe a bit of both. New Yorkers certainly didn't notice it; they don't drive cars; they take the subway. Joe Biden used to commute from his home in Delaware to Washington (DC) on the train. The White House press secretary was completely tone deaf on this issue. 

It took their constituents a few days to realize that "hey, this is not transitory," and, oh by the way, "these gasoline prices really are high." So, they started writing letters to their congress men / women, and to their US senators. A few letters at first, and then those letters started growing into a big pile. Finally, the congressional / Senate staff get around to compiling those letters and providing their bosses the update. Now, two weeks later, the incumbents are starting to get it, and they're starting to panic. 

That explains the links above, why we're finally hearing from the elites in Washington (DC). Their constituents are "mad as hell and aren't going to take it any more." They're ready to ask Canadian truckers how to stage a convoy but they can't afford the gas.

Today, the US Secretary of Energy practically said, "drill, baby, drill." For the incumbents, panic is truly starting to set in. 

When crude oil dropped from $120 to $90 literally overnight a week ago, a lot of folks thought things would be fine. Some of us didn't understand how crude oil could drop so quickly when there were no changes in the fundamentals, but the Washington (DC) folks thought, "hey, maybe things will settle down." 

But today, crude oil is back up to $105 and this time it looks like it has as much to do with fundamentals (supply / demand issues) as with the geo-political environment (the Ukraine-Russia war isn't going to end any time soon). 

Anyway, there you have it. 

Sure, bad things might happen. I don't like it (the high prices). Bad things like:

  • windfall profits tax;
  • nationalizing the US oil companies;
  • executive orders for price controls, either crude oil or gasoline;
  • ban crude oil and/or LNG exports. 

So, bad things might happen. As someone once said, things are never so bad they can't get worse. And it was President Obama, not me, that recognized that Joe Biden has that particular skill set to make bad situations worse. I didn't say that, that was paraphrasing President Obama. 

Anyway, time to move on.

But the tea leaves certainly suggest the incumbents are starting to panic. 

Driving season doesn't start for another month or so. Plenty of time to put in some more renewable energy.

By the way, what's going on with Berkshire Hathaway, hitting 52-week highs three days in a row and today wasn't even subtle? Up almost $9 at the close. That just blows me away.

Eight New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; Thirty-Five Active Rigs -- March 17, 2022

Active rigs:

$103.30
3/17/202203/17/202103/17/202003/17/201903/17/2018
Active Rigs3517566558

Eight new permits, #38833 - #38840, inclusive:

  • Operators: Enerplus (7); Hunt Oil
  • Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Ross (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for seven Hay Draw wells in lot 3 section 34-148-97, to be sited between 424 FSL and 498 FEL and between 1759 FEL and 1890 FEL;
    • Hunt has a permit for a Palermo-King well in SESE 5-156-90, to be sited 265 FSL and 600 FEL

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38423, 247, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 5-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,Winner, no production data,
  • 35544, 752, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HY, Antelope, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 33K 1/22;
  • 38459, 961, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-17-20H, Sather Lake, no production data,

Initial production:

  • 35544:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-20223117998181142608544316367197290
SANISH12-202131147301432826711584782014838023

Spectacular MRO Wells In The Antelope-Sanish -- March 17, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

Initial production:

  • 37607, loc/drl-->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Saint Pierre USA 12-35TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 188K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2022312470924819141976573764001451
SANISH12-2021313467734578191068920887463414
SANISH11-202128422084214521811877288613934
SANISH10-2021192468424775155503823436844512
SANISH9-20212461426610183647795841937370
  • 37608, loc/drl-->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Robin USA 12-35H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 131K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2022281569715769101724798746872250
SANISH12-202131221342207712179625776161894
SANISH11-202128276102762312848683096724822
SANISH10-202117204612049698943954338545245
SANISH9-2021294465344356271756873866519710
  • 37609, ros-->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Shoberg USA 11-35TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 292K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2022312273722775141146296961336431
SANISH12-2021312729827258169316972568221458
SANISH11-2021283740237429194046297861614137
SANISH10-2021182840328256162075609454233820
SANISH9-20212332592328262004151844507320
SANISH8-202179094929944761224311494180
SANISH7-20212946686465952821273099702390
SANISH6-2021298763387068705971142372964379446
  • 37610, loc/drl,->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Black USA 11-35H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 233K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-20220000000
SANISH12-202100270000
SANISH11-202162947315415187763761041
SANISH10-202118182631829899194284541558600
SANISH9-2021304042041095221616715565388370
SANISH8-20211319034189461104341771385101983
SANISH7-2021316088960623335561061911024160
SANISH6-2021309158190991682381321683420892544

37776, loc/PNC, MRO, Ida USA 11-35TFH, Antelope-Sanish, PNC.

  1. 37611, loc/drl-->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Archer USA 13-35TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 123K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2022312090920979176006709365471447
SANISH12-2021312762827534222907574874169506
SANISH11-202128319303186725769619656074171
SANISH10-2021181751917458153492804627062358
SANISH9-2021282467324514279974340042223330
SANISH8-2021198933613633560
  • 37612, loc/drl-->drl/drl (2/21), MRO, Cavanaugh USA 11-35TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 245K 1/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2022311384213932197505786355568358
SANISH12-20213117844177052524181407790850
SANISH11-20212822713228022637862541597240
SANISH10-20211815219151951546142941410010
SANISH9-20213038649384603313380617760538
SANISH8-20211819531196801907336415313523784
SANISH7-20213041665415143981470164625854910
SANISH6-2021307560275192781531146811951390665

Updating An Incredible MRO Stillwell Well; Still Flowing, No Pump -- March 17, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

This well is trending toward 500K bbls crude oil in about two years:

  • 32434, 4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge, F, t9/20; cum 420K 10/21; cum 455K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202223765476254014201341899533
BAKKEN12-2021311429614657725831192295550
BAKKEN11-2021271283912263487333464319790
BAKKEN10-202116529454982244157181491523
BAKKEN9-2021301201412205494239140377160
BAKKEN8-202131192281913789414259040578210
BAKKEN7-2021251596116085807827540248931208
BAKKEN6-2021241316512928576319832155063143
BAKKEN5-20212198199727487521726193801253
BAKKEN4-2021301929019343774347816460190
BAKKEN3-2021312460425028990654302508331313
BAKKEN2-2021282613125827105034914746781223
BAKKEN1-2021202142921791893337709308654989
BAKKEN12-20203138346383951448463828517989538
BAKKEN11-20203053105529831664986043817341019
BAKKEN10-20203064940650212053985430784563024
BAKKEN9-2020309038989900506361199941131421506
BAKKEN8-20204635558564005810063581121

Hits 500K Bbls Crude Oil In About Eighteen Months -- The Incredible Bakken -- March 17, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

This well has gone over 500K in less than two years, about eighteen months?

37283, drl/A-->5,810, MRO, Marion USA 4-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t9/20-; cum 139K over 45 days; 217K 11/20; API: 3-053-09324; fracked 7/24/20 - 9/10/20; 7 million gallons of water; 70% water by mass; note completion strategies at sidebar at the right; cum 451K 5/21; cum 495K 8/21; cum 556K 1/22; 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-20223111191115541081341753402500
SANISH12-2021311267612404110224458742612378
SANISH11-20213012193122131034546760415183677
SANISH10-2021311172811810929255080535230
SANISH9-202130129241279493945148049046826
SANISH8-2021241192411991723336394340091460
SANISH7-2021311552615389762953782525480
SANISH6-20213016789167471013157442561480
SANISH5-2021312149221795130356463762124948
SANISH4-2021302605425939173046605963853403
SANISH3-2021313761137500219097525572303503
SANISH2-20212851347515032662685579824110
SANISH1-20213047626475693586768519643851174
SANISH12-20202250286501645295265042606261392
SANISH11-2020789959186453913254113161391
SANISH10-20203168977689392715990000858240
SANISH9-202030110439110134565891378241303031077
SANISH8-20201528319279321997530120266111815

And, Of Course, Folks Will Complain About The Dreaded Bakken Decline Rate -- It Gets Tedious -- March 17, 2022

The well of interest:

  • 21450, off-line due to neighboring huge fracks.

The MRO "Little Owl" pad is followed here.

  • 37770, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 168K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022311753317517112663170530833162
BAKKEN12-20213121815217462225138941380710
BAKKEN11-20213017309173072350525659250350
BAKKEN10-20213120734207752877926560258570
BAKKEN9-2021292309323575295072780926990113
BAKKEN8-20213067697670175587882579771791484

37771, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 195K 1/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231164741649678333225731391174
BAKKEN12-20213124058240531140940257393110
BAKKEN11-20213026826268211342439233382700
BAKKEN10-20213131919319271641440340392620
BAKKEN9-2021292915529570233583450733433177
BAKKEN8-20212966166655015178074352693411199
BAKKEN7-2021200163000
  • 37772, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 155K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022311894018932186903888437819251
BAKKEN12-20213124459243772116652216511760
BAKKEN11-20213018888188842384228061273810
BAKKEN10-20213122376224432903128728279690
BAKKEN9-2021292762427816339463447133516122
BAKKEN8-20212142716422875735851891479881434
BAKKEN7-2021200163000
  • 37773 conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO,  Perry USA 41-6TFH, Renion Bay, t--; cum 279K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022312404523989211604765146393244
BAKKEN12-20213126703268492043556878557420
BAKKEN11-20213046158462452328185870840980
BAKKEN10-20213167554677084209094279919380
BAKKEN9-2021297773477433631328730384475467
BAKKEN8-2021133634535980342353990137261548
BAKKEN7-2021200559059
  • 37774 conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 242K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231142251425285902148820838116
BAKKEN12-2021312150621658937140478396010
BAKKEN11-20213040990411871777173115715740
BAKKEN10-202131757677569827953100685980940
BAKKEN9-2021295895558754280926851466278446
BAKKEN8-2021930258299541629933968305131715
BAKKEN7-20212001571290129