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Friday, February 18, 2022

Three Day Weekend -- Beautiful Weather -- Lots Of Driving -- February 18, 2022

Already, driving season has not started, and US about to set new all-time driving records. 

Link here

Fortunately 90% of new car sales are all EVs (source: Cathie Wood) and no one is driving ICE vehicles any more (source: Cathie Wood) we should see plenty of inexpensive gasoline this weekend for the few of us still driving ICE vehicles.

Observations From Twitter Accounts I Follow -- February 18, 2022

Before we get started, for cocktail trivia tonight, there are about 56 "tanks" in a battalion. 

  • 125 "tank" battalions = about 7,000 "tanks"
  • Russia has about 12,000 "tanks"
  • the US has about 6,000 "tanks"
  • Russia likely has more "tanks" on Ukraine's northern and eastern borders than the entire US Army "tank" inventory.

Two observations -- TODAY -- from the twitter accounts I follow:

  • war: no one, here in in the US, absolutely no one, is concerned about Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine
    • Putin knows that sanctions will wreak havoc on Europe, not Russia;
      • the US is in "spectator-mode"
      • as long as it stays among "Russians," this is not a NATO issue; it might be a European issue;
    • one of two likely scenarios:
      • Russia stops with Kiev and there is a East Ukraine / West Ukraine standoff
      • Russian generals on the ground race to Lviv
  • oil: some perceived anxiety that US becomes a net crude oil importer starting as early as this year
    • EIA suggests that:
      • US net crude oil: about 4 million bopd net export
      • US new petroleum products: about 4 million bpd net imports
      • US net trade (oil out but refined products in): 0
    • if I'm reading this correctly, US demand will be such that refiners will not keep up with US demand
    • operators are currently operating at about 87% of their operable capacity

Link here.


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Road to Mexico


Link here.

CLR With Six New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- February 18, 2022

US: to be net importer in 2022. Source: Michael Kern 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$91.07
2/18/202202/18/202102/18/202002/18/201902/18/2018
Active Rigs33
15566456

Six new permits, #38785 - #38790 (the NDIC has a typographical error), inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Jim Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for six Medicine HOle permits in SWSE 27-14 6-96; 
    • the wells will be sited between 625 FSL and 761 FSL and between 2208 FEL and 2345 FEL

Four permits renewed:

  • Petroshale (3): two Horse Camp permits in Dunn County, and one Bear Chase North permit in McKenzie County;
  • Hess: one AN-Double Bar V permit in McKenzie County

Two dry holes:

  • 36960, dry, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 9-22H1,
  • 34871, dry, Oasis, Dixon 5602 42-34 3B,

PXD -- Spacing -- 4Q21

PXD spacing. Compare with the Bakken. 

Link here.


ISO NE Pricing -- February 18, 2022

Link here.  

Unfortunately the font might be a bit small for Bernie Sanders and Pocahontas. 

Notes From All Over -- February 18, 2022

COP: has acquired an additional 10% stake in APLNG.

  • cost: $1.7 billion
  • Asia Pacific LNG
  • a subsidiary of COP
  • now 47.5% owned by COP
  • adds $1.8 billion in distributions to parent company
  • COP: 1.3 billion shares outstanding = $1.38 / share
  • so, break-even first year; after that, $1.38 / share

Switzerland: may add more natural gas energy for energy security

Amazon: officially announces increased subscription for Amazon Prime

  • will include exclusive Thursday Night Football (NFL)
  • the big question: how long will "any" Amazon be "free"? 

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Back To North Dakota

Obituary: Ray Fettig. Also here if that link breaks.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Leave You With This -- February 18, 2022

Roku makes up over 6% of Cathie Wood's ARKK -- or at least it did at one time.



I started building a position in ARRK in late-2021, but got out before the end of 2021. Probably held shares for about two months.

CLR To Report One Well Today -- February 18, 2022

Active rigs:

$91.13
2/18/202202/18/202102/18/202002/18/201902/18/2018
Active Rigs3315566456

Friday, February 18, 2022: 35 for the month, 90 for the quarter, 90 for the year

  • 38146, drl, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 11-5H1, Cedar Coulee, no production reported;

RBN Energy: as wind and solar sectors expand, service opportunities open up.

There is a lot we don’t know about how the energy transition might play out over the next couple of decades. One thing that we can say with a high degree of certainty, however, is that the big run-up in wind and solar generating capacity in recent years is just the beginning — a lot more wind farms and solar arrays will be developed through the 2020s and ’30s, as will many, many energy-storage batteries. Another good bet is that as the portfolios of wind and solar developers grow, they will need help in maintaining, upgrading, and replacing their assets from a newly emerging type of company: the clean energy services provider. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss wind and solar’s role in the energy transition and the types of services these new companies might provide.

Back in the late 1950s and early ‘60s, rock ‘n’ roll was taking the world by storm — and so was crude oil. The Seven Sisters — the corporate ancestors of today’s BP, Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil — were huge and dominant. They were growing year-by-year and running every aspect of their operations, each convinced that they alone had the technological expertise to get the most out of the oil reserves they controlled. But as their expansion continued, the big oil companies started turning to new market entrants — oilfield services companies — that offered sophisticated, often proprietary drilling techniques as well as economies of scale and other benefits.

Nowadays, the upstream side of the energy business is considerably more diversified, and oilfield services companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes are indispensable industry players that provide the wide range of products and services needed to efficiently develop wells and produce crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs for their E&P clients.

With the much-discussed energy transition now under way, a new need for specialized support may be emerging in the clean energy space. Since the turn of the century, the U.S. has experienced extraordinary growth in the capacity of wind farms and solar facilities. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), there was about 2,500 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity in place in 2000, but by 2020 the nation’s wind capacity had increased nearly 50-fold to 122,000 MW, including 33,000 MW in Texas alone. Another 7,200 MW of U.S. wind capacity was added in the first three quarters of 2021, and 40,000 MW more is in various stages of construction and pre-construction development.