Observations From Twitter Accounts I Follow -- February 18, 2022

Before we get started, for cocktail trivia tonight, there are about 56 "tanks" in a battalion. 

• 125 "tank" battalions = about 7,000 "tanks"
• Russia has about 12,000 "tanks"
• the US has about 6,000 "tanks"
• Russia likely has more "tanks" on Ukraine's northern and eastern borders than the entire US Army "tank" inventory.
  

Two observations -- TODAY -- from the twitter accounts I follow:

• war: no one, here in in the US, absolutely no one, is concerned about Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine
• Putin knows that sanctions will wreak havoc on Europe, not Russia;
• the US is in "spectator-mode"
• as long as it stays among "Russians," this is not a NATO issue; it might be a European issue;
• one of two likely scenarios:
• Russia stops with Kiev and there is a East Ukraine / West Ukraine standoff
• Russian generals on the ground race to Lviv
• oil: some perceived anxiety that US becomes a net crude oil importer starting as early as this year
• EIA suggests that:
• US net crude oil: about 4 million bopd net export
• US new petroleum products: about 4 million bpd net imports
• US net trade (oil out but refined products in): 0
• if I'm reading this correctly, US demand will be such that refiners will not keep up with US demand
• operators are currently operating at about 87% of their operable capacity

Link here.

*********************
Road to Mexico

Link here.