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Friday, February 18, 2022

Observations From Twitter Accounts I Follow -- February 18, 2022

Before we get started, for cocktail trivia tonight, there are about 56 "tanks" in a battalion. 

  • 125 "tank" battalions = about 7,000 "tanks"
  • Russia has about 12,000 "tanks"
  • the US has about 6,000 "tanks"
  • Russia likely has more "tanks" on Ukraine's northern and eastern borders than the entire US Army "tank" inventory.

Two observations -- TODAY -- from the twitter accounts I follow:

  • war: no one, here in in the US, absolutely no one, is concerned about Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine
    • Putin knows that sanctions will wreak havoc on Europe, not Russia;
      • the US is in "spectator-mode"
      • as long as it stays among "Russians," this is not a NATO issue; it might be a European issue;
    • one of two likely scenarios:
      • Russia stops with Kiev and there is a East Ukraine / West Ukraine standoff
      • Russian generals on the ground race to Lviv
  • oil: some perceived anxiety that US becomes a net crude oil importer starting as early as this year
    • EIA suggests that:
      • US net crude oil: about 4 million bopd net export
      • US new petroleum products: about 4 million bpd net imports
      • US net trade (oil out but refined products in): 0
    • if I'm reading this correctly, US demand will be such that refiners will not keep up with US demand
    • operators are currently operating at about 87% of their operable capacity

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Road to Mexico


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