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Saturday, January 15, 2022

Atmospheric CO2 -- December, 2021

Link here.

 

Wow, just when mankind shut down the global economy for two years in an attempt to cut manmade CO2 emissions, and Mother Nature goes ahead an erupts a volcano with year's worth of manmade CO2. Greta should be yelling at Mother Nature.

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Brotherly Love

It never ceases to amaze me the "closeness" twins have. 

These two were separated for all of three minutes while one was in the bathroom, the other waiting his turn.

They are literally never out of each other's eyesight except when in the bathroom. It would seem they had not seen each other for years. I guess it's a relief every time the door opens after the "flush" and your brother is still there.

NE ISO Update; "Green CO2" -- January 15, 2022

Link here. Also, here for earlier updates.

  • 4:38 p.m. ET, Boston:
  • current demand: 18,394 MW at $223.86 / MW
  • renewable energy:
    • has been decreasing ever so slightly since noon;
    • now providing 1714 MW
    • wind provides 59% of that 1714 = 1,011 MW
  • coal is maxed out in New England; a typical coal plant: 500 MW
  • a typical nuclear plant: 1,000 MW
  • if wind were to go to "zero," that would be "equal" to two coal plants
  •  bottom line -- right now: NE ISO is relying completely on "wind holding." If NE ISO loses wind tonight, it could be a tough twenty-four hours. 
  • during the middle of the night last night, wind dropped to 885 MW 

Late afternoon, Satuday, January 15, 2022:

Early dinner, Saturday, January 15, 2022:

  • total demand is not particularly remarkable and really no different than earlier;
  • but look at that continuing need for Canadian hydroelectricity and natural gas peaking and now falling?
  • this makes me think of watching a slow-moving train wreck or the 24-hour I-95 closure a couple of weeks ago.


The worst is over for the day; after dinner, below the day's max
:

Late night, January 15, 2022: low demand, but lots of oil being burned:

  • again, assuming natural gas is the preferred fossil fuel of the three (natural gas, coal, and oil) it is interesting that this much oil is being burned and the fact that natural gas component is plummeting suggests natural gas inventories are an issue.

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"Green CO2 Is Not As Bad As "Black CO2"

From a reader: 

All I can say is, wow, Mother Nature is seriously mixing her elements sending massive amounts of natural green CO2 into the atmosphere ... the Tonga eruption ...
... keep an eye out for any readings comparing how much CO2 this one explosion put into the atmosphere vs. how much mankind contributes.
The last big volcanoes in Iceland, from what I remember, the CO2 that was ejected into the atmosphere in four (4) days was equal to the entire manmade CO2 contribution for an entire year (not yet snoped but I know I read that somewhere so it must be true [TIC or TFIC].

But ignoring the global warming trauma, I was more impressed with the lighting bolts that added to the drama....hope the boat got away from the pyroclastic flow tho:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1482437044785889286

CNP Energy

Locator: 10010CNP.

Yesterday I mentioned CenterPoint Energy, something I knew nothing about except that I bought some shares in this company back in the 1980s (?) and have long forgotten about them in an "orphaned" brokerage account. 

Time to take a more in-depth look.

Google CNP energy winter storm URI.

Reminder: Winter Storm URI began to hit parts of Texas on February 13, 2021.

First google hit from Forbes: Elective cooperatives, the lone shining utility start --

The more than two-thirds of Texans who lost power during this devastating storm were notably more negative than positive in their evaluation of the performance of their local electric utility, with one exception.

That exception are the members of the more than 60 electric cooperatives operating within the Texas Interconnection electrical grid, which, in sharp contrast to the customers of the commercial utilities that provide power to the majority of Texans, gave their local utility a positive evaluation related to its performance during the storm.

[Not getting good grades:] The four main utility providers are Oncor, CenterPoint CNP, American Electric Power (AEP) North, and American Electric Power (AEP) Central. 

The other 25% of the survey population live in areas with regulated markets, where a single company is responsible for both delivering the electricity to homes and businesses and serves as the only source from which electricity is purchased. 

Municipal-owned and operated utilities (e.g., Austin Energy, Bryan Texas Utilities, Burnet Electric Department, Denton Municipal Electric, New Braunfels Utilities, San Antonio’s CPS Energy serve 73% of the regulated market.

Electric cooperatives (e.g., Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative, Central Texas Electric Cooperative, Guadalupe Valley Cooperative, Lamb County Electric Cooperative, Pedernales Electricity Cooperative, Wood County Electric Cooperative) serve one-fifth of this market (21%), with private companies accounting for 6% of the regulated market. 

Texans served by electric cooperatives in regulated markets were more likely to agree that the power cuts in their local area were carried out in an equitable manner compared to Texans served by commercial electricity utilities in deregulated markets. More than half (52%) of those served by an electric cooperative agreed that power cuts during the winter storm in their area were carried out in an equitable manner, compared to only 26%, 23% and 23% of those served by Oncor, AEP and CenterPoint respectively.

Corporate presentation: 3Q21, November 4, 2021.  

CNP is in the process of becoming ... google a pure-play regulated electricity provider: CNP is one step closer to becoming a 'pure-play regulated utility' this quarter -- CEO, November 11, 2021.

CenterPoint Energy begins exit of midstream following Energy Transfer's completed acquisition of Enable Midstream Partners.

  • Upon the closing of the transaction, CenterPoint Energy (CenterPoint) received approximately 201 million Energy Transfer LP (ET) common units and $5 million in cash in exchange for its Enable Midstream Partners, LP (Enable) common units and general partner interest, respectively
  • In addition, CenterPoint exchanged approximately $363 million of Enable Series A Fixed to Floating Non-Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred units for approximately $385 million ET Series G Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred units
  • The closing of the transaction triggers the settlement of the previously announced contingent forward sale of 50 million ET common units, or approximately 25% of CenterPoint’s total ET common unit holding
  • Transaction supports and aligns with CenterPoint’s goal to fully eliminate midstream exposure by the end of 2022, its current 10-year growth strategy and plan to move to a purely regulated utility

I don't know if I have this right, but it looks to me like this:

  • CenterPoint Energy, an electricity provider based in Houston, TX had (past tense) a regulated division (electric utility) and a non-regulated division (gathering and transporting natural gas by pipeline)
  • the unregulated division was primary through a large stake in Enable Midstream Partners
  • CenterPoint Energy sold its share of Enable Midstream Partners, LLP, to Energy Transfer
  • once that sale was complete, then CenterPoint divested itself of it Energy Transfer LP shares.

I might have it wrong -- I'm generally interested in the big picture, not all the details in these kinds of stories -- but that's how I see it now.

So, the question is whether the "new" CenterPoint Energy company is a buy, hold, or sell.

Stocks To Watch -- Only The Current Quarter

June 11, 20222: next week, stocks to watch - now requires a subscription. I will no longer follow.

June 4, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • Apple's WWDC
  • economic data to be reported:
  • headline inflation:
    • forecast, 8.2% y/y for May
    • forecast, 8.3% y/y for April
    • some see core CPI trickling down to 5.9% from 6.2 (after backing our energy, food)
  • reporting earnings next week: Campbell Soup, DocuSign
  • investor events: AMD, AAPL
  • FB disappears; replaced by META
  • dividend watch: Credit Suisse notes: IBM, CVX, KO, EMR, SWK, NEE, CL, SYY, MCD and CAT.

May 28, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • last chance to buy Amazon before the 20 -1 stock split becomes effective June 6, 2022

May 21, 2022 next week, stocks to watch --

  • Nvidia, Snowflake, Costo.

May 14, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, Deere,
  • Hyundai: to announce a $7 billion EV plant near Savannah, GA

May 7, 2022: next week, stocks to watch -- 

  • earnings: DIS; RIDE (Lordstown Motors); OXY; Peloton; Wendy's; Honda;
  • major auto summit, attendees, speakers: Tesla.
  • Rivian: will roll past the IPO lockup period for early investors.

April 30, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • earnings: WMB; MPC; AMD; SBUX; MDRN; UBER; COP; LCID; DASH; ENB
  • IPOs: Bausch + Lomb (BLCO); 
  • projected dividend increases: FANG (from 60 cents to 70 cents); Devon (from $1.00 to $1.15); Baxter (from 28 cents to 32 cents.

April 23, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook), and Intel
    • Thursday: AAPL earnings
    • Friday: earnings -- XOM, CVX, PSX
  • Fed rate hysteria sinks the markets
    • predicted:
      • 50 bp-increases at next three meetings;
      • 25 bp-increases until final rate of 3.50% in May, 2023
  • dividend increases being forecast:
    • AAPL: 24 cent from 22 cents (yawn)
    • MRO: 8 cents from 7 cents (yawn)
    • XOM: 92 cents from 88 cents (okay, a big better, perhaps, but not much)
  • why the recent transportation service issues? UNP says "congestion on tracks was hurting its ablity to meet shipping demand.
  • Boeing earnings preview: EPS with a loss of 21 cents/share; revenue of $16.16 billion; lots of headwinds; but some bright spots: commercial deliveries rose 24% and defense shipments were up 5%.
  • Apple: analysts still confused; look at all the possible partners analysts have suggested:
    • Porsche; Tesla; Volkswagen; Hyundai; XPeng; Nio; Magna International; Stellantis; Foxconn; Nissan; Toyota; and .... drum roll ... more.

April 16, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

  • earnings this week, of interest: JNJ, UAL, T, Netflix (NFLX)
  • projected dividend increases:
    • SLB: from 12.5 cents to 21 cents;
    • KMI: from 27 cents to 28.5 cents;
    • JNJ: from $1.06 to $1.11

April 9, 2022: next week, stocks to watch -- 

  • next week marks the beginning of 1Q22 earnings season;
  • starting with the big banks: JPM, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo.
  • Delta reports
  • inflation likely to be reeported as worse;
  • Enerplus -- ERF -- will hold a webcast for investors on the Bakken on April 12
  • how did ATT (T) not get mentioned!

April 2, 2022: next week, stocks to watch -- Greenbrier (GBX); but there's really nothing that catches my eye.

Notes From All Over -- Waiting For The NFL Playoff Games Later Today -- January 15, 2021

ISO NE for the day has been updated as we watch this phenomenon during the developing storm. Link here.  

What a great country. In the US, a neuroscientist can take one of two routes for fame and money:

  • game show host: Mayim Bialik
  • convicted terrorist, serving 86 years in Carswell (Ft Worth, TX) federal prison: Aafia Siddiqui ("Pat, I'd like to buy a vowel"). 

An EV experience in Germany: link here or go direct to the translated story. What I find most interesting:

  • all the planning required to take a simple 400-mile trip in a western country; and,
  • all the advice she was given after the trip on how "she did it wrong." 

Worthy of a subscription:

Fair, Balanced, and Humorous

New England Running Out Of Natural Gas? Teslas Being Re-Charged With Electricity Generated By Oil And Natural Gas! Go Greta! January 15, 2022

Link here. And they are finally reading the blog. LOL.

Until told differently I can only interpret these graphs one way.

First of all, electricity demand is not particularly "huge" in New England at the moment, certainly very, very manageable. 


But look at the fuel mix:

  • natural gas use has plummeted; dropping being the nuclear component, something I have not seen before in this setting;
  • burning oil has surged; now accounting for 20% of the mix;
    • at 20%, I believe this is the all-time high;
  • of course, nuclear energy is flat-lined at max available:
  • coal is a significant player, at 4%;

As noted, unless someone can tell me differently, this suggests that:

  • New England is literally running out of natural gas;
  • they can't get any more out of nuclear (SOP);
  • they can't afford to make up the difference with Canadian hydroelectricity (very expensive);
  • so, they go to oil (from Russia, Trinidad, Tobago); and,
  • it appears they are either running out of coal, or more likely, the coal burning plants are simply nearing max capacity

But I'm certainly open to other explanations, but that fall off natural gas is eye-opening.

By the way, this explains why those on the east coast are "banning" new natural gas hook-ups. There simply won't be enough natural gas available unless pipeline policies change. 

Not gonna happen in my lifetime.

By the way, folks are starting to notice that the front pages of the likes of the NYT no longer carry stories on global warming / climate change. 

The best things about these graphs: we will see what the max is for:

  • nuclear (already knew)
  • oil (a function of power plant capacity and how fast tankers in port can off load oil)
  • coal ( a function of power capacity and coal stored on site; with rail replenishment)
  • renewable: over time, perhaps a year's worth of data, we will get a feeling for renewable energy production vs nameplate capacity 

For the record (I think a reader has better data points than I do on this one), max capacity, all numbers rounded and rounded slightly higher. I have no idea how accurate these are but they will provide me a baseline from which to start:

  • current demand: 15,236 MW; $141.21 / MW 
  • fuel mix
    • coal: 400 MW
    • hydro: 1,000 MW (today's max: 750 MW)
    • oil: 2,600 MW
    • nuclear: 3,350 MW
    • renewables: 2,000 MW
    • natural gas, so far today: 4,200 MW

Wow, it would be interesting to see the nameplate capacity of the entire system by fuel mix.

I may have to add a new tag for "Road_To_New_England": "Road_To_Little_Germany." 

**********************************
Later, Same Day, As Demand Increases
During A Developing Storm

Observations:

  • since original post (above), demand has remained unchanged (gone from 15,236 MW to 15,952 MW)
  • electricity rates have gone from sixth to seventh decile; huge increase
  • NE ISO has cut back on Canadian hydro (expensive source) but at tail end one can see that source starting to increase ever so slightly
  • huge, huge increase in natural gas; unable to explain how this happened but incredibly interesting;
    • the increase in natural gas could be in response to ever-so-slight decrease in renewable energy;
  • but look at that increase in oil use
    • is the sharp increase in natural gas and oil "anticipating" greater demand yet to come this afternoon / evening?
  • current demand: 15,952 MW; $172.37 / MW 
  • fuel mix
    • coal: 400 MW
    • hydro: 600 MW (today's max: 750 MW) -- notice how it has come down significantly;
    • oil: 2,800 MW
    • nuclear: 3,350 MW -- unchanged
    • renewables: 1,890 MW (falling)
    • natural gas, so far today: 4,200 MW (from a low of 3,100 to a max of 4,200 MW)
    • since Canadian hydro has flat-lined since original post, and oil has increased significantly, it suggests the NE ISO has increased due to cost of oil?

The reader who keep me "straight and narrow" on ISO NE provided the following:

You have pretty accurately described the power situation in New England and correctly identified many of the ISO site's functions.

Some added info ... 
1. Nuclear maxes at ~3,300 Mw from 3 plants ... 2 units at Millbrook and 1 at Seabrook. Steady Eddie output, with rare plant malfunctions.
Bad storms have occasionally impacted transmission lines just downstream of Seabrook which have temporarily curtailed contributions from this plant.
2. I have seen oil output as high as 2,900+ Mw. There is a dedicated oil burner (Wyman) - capacity ~600 Mw - at Yarmouth, Maine and it seems to get much of its (very) expensive fuel oil from the nearby Irving refinery at St. John, New Brunswick.
The bulk of the remaining oil fueled electricity comes from the dual fuel CCGT plants. I have no more detailed data, however.

3. The highest contribution from natgas that I have seen was ~ 14,800 Mw in the summertime when natgas was both cheap and plentiful.

4. There is now only one remaining coal plant, the 415 Mw plant at Merrimack.
Interestingly, this plant abruptly curtailed output the other night (7 PM sharp) and ran at 108 Mw for several days. Reasons unknown, but it is getting back up to capacity now.
5. The 'Trees and Trash' output (officially labeled Wood and Refuse) is a consistent 650 Mw contributor.

6. The hydro varies with the 'rush hour' demands of AM/PM markets, with  2,000+ Mw being the highest that I have seen.
(I need to learn more about the hardware/infrastructure involved with NE's hydro).

Addendum ...

You can learn an a lot by using the 'Fuel Mix Graph' options.
By clicking (upper left corner) 'Date', tap blank box, choose - for example  - yesterday,  Jan. 14, click 'Include Next Day', tap Apply, and a 2 day chart appears. 
When viewing this, it forcefully validates your claim that NE is 'running out of natgas' as the usage spikes correlate to rush hour demands and the injection (speculative, on my part) from the FSRU (Exemplar) tethered offshore Boston and hooked up to the region's pipeline system via the Northeast Gateway Terminal).

If you tap/click the non default data icon -  shown as 3 horizontal lines next to the default chart icon - raw data appears showing the precise Megawatt contribution for each of the 11 fuel sources in running ~10 minute increments. This is a HIGHLY instructive bit of information.  
FWIW, it is not unusual to see the wind contribution fluctuate daily over a 500 Megawatt range. Numerous times it has dropped ~1,000 Megawatts in a 12 hour span.
For context, that equates to regularly losing their coal output (~400 Mw) or one nuke plant (~1,000 Mw) off and on every day.