Jobs And GDP = Huge Market Sell-Off -- December 22, 2022

Link here.

Jobs:

• claims rise modestly;
• forecast: 222,000
• actual: 216,000
• an increase of 2,000
  
• a raft of layoffs in the technology sector and interest-rate sensitive industries like housing have not had a material impact on claims;
• big declines in claims in California (blue), Indiana (red), Ohio (purple), Texas (red)
• huge increase in claims in Massachusetts (blue)

GPD: 3Q22 estimates revised up

• 3.2% vs 2.9%
• economy not dead yet
  
• despite mounting recession fears and a housing market slump, growth estimates for the fourth quarter are as high as a 2.7% pace, with consumers doing the heavy lifting, also buttressed by savings accumulated during the pandemic.
• business spending on equipment has also remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs.

Fed: more people need to lose their jobs

• job losses not happening fast enough
• 6,000 job losses short of forecast nowhere near enough to stop the Fed from raising rates
• housing market hasn't tumbled enough
• claims above 270,000: "would raise a red flag" -- say what -- isn't that what the Fed wants? Why would that be a red flat -- oh, that's right --> recession.