D5S -- China Update -- December 15, 2022

Link here.

China could take up to 400,000 barrels per day of additional crude oil from Russia and possibly more.

However, it is likely to wait for physical crude markets to settle down ....

Beyond this initial caution, traders say quality issues, involving high mercury and vanadium content in Russian Urals crude, will likely impose some constraints on the extent and pace of any increase in China's imports.

China has been one of the main buyers to pick up Russian crude displaced from traditional markets in Europe, alongside India.

With the EU introducing a formal ban on imports of Russian crude from December 5, 2022, the appetite of these two countries to take more has become a key question for Russian production and global oil supply.

Assuming that uncertainties related to the price cap and associated bans wane and market players figure out how to trade safely within or around the cap, China could eventually buy an additional 200,000 b/d-400,000 b/d of Russian crude.

Another source at a major global market player said China could potentially increase Russian crude imports by significantly more.

Much more at the link.