Here We Go -- October 5, 2022

Biden administration, needs to, immediately:

• double the US SPR release; the SPR is only three percent below its historic average; three percent;
  
• done! Within minutes after OPEC+ announces cut, Biden announces an additional ten million bbls of crude oil will be released from the SPR in November;
• it will all be exported: US refiners are pretty much maxed out
  
• ban US petroleum and petroleum products exports

Immediately.

Before this gets out of control:

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Ukraine 

Is Kherson a turning point? by Peter Zeihan on October 5, 2022.

Ukrainian forces are poised to rout Russian defensive formations around the critical southern city of Kherson. 

This comes weeks after a planned counter offensive went into effect, but on the heels of significant gains made against Russian troops in Ukraine's northeast, which saw Kyiv recapture Izium and and the strategic rail hub of Lyman. 

The battle for Kherson will represent a significant bellwether in the current phase of the Ukraine conflict. Russia's best troops and equipment are stationed there. If they dissolve, as have other fronts in recent weeks, not only does this have significant implications for Russia itself but the capture of advanced Russian equipment by Kyiv's forces will represent a larger and more significant transfer than nearly anything NATO has provided up to this point.