Updates
Later, 3:26 p.m. CT after market close: Dow falls 1,000 points and NASDAQ slumps 4 percent. Whoo-hoo.
- The incredibly short statement and the words he used earlier today at "Jackson Hole" suggests three things with regard to Jay Powell:
- he's had it with pundits second-guessing his actions, and suggesting he doesn't have the fortitude to stay the course (to do what it takes to bring inflation down)
- he is most upset by the actions of the Biden administration and the US Congress: when the Fed is doing everything it can to bring down inflation, Capital Hill shows Powell the middle finger by:
- passing an ill-advised trillion-dollar climate bill and calling it an "inflation reduction act"; and,
- by executive order, forgives $20,000 in student debt for couples earning as much as $250,000
- the key word in his five-minute speech today: "pain." "Pain" is a euphemism for "recession."
- Jay Powell, with the full support of the Federal Reserve, has had enough of the Biden administration and the pundits.
- The Fed won't hold an early meeting to raise rates, but they will raise rates 75 basis points in September and it will take all of Powelll's will power not to raise a full one hundred basis points.
- The "Fed rate" will be 4 percent by Christmas, if not higher.
Original Post
I am an investor, not a trader.
I am always 100% invested. Minus a very small cash position for unexpected bills.
30-year horizon. I will never "see" my portfolios: it all goes to daughters and grandchildren.
I have a revenue stream to allow monthly investment, which I do in two tranches:
- first week of every month;
- third week of every month;
My allocation mix changes over time.
My current allocation mix:
- 50%: blue chip, dividend paying; and yes, Apple is now in this group (was tech, no longer)
- 30%: tech (mostly semi-conductors)
- 20%: energy (oil and gas)
It's becoming more difficult to maintain that mix on a monthly basis.
- chips can wait;
- oil and gas: make hay while the sun shines
- I might slow monthly allocation on techs over next six months; increase oil and gas, but make up for shift through "tech surge" at seven-to-twelve months to keep 50-30-20 allocation mix.
Posted for the archives, so my family understands my investment "mood." For no other reason.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
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General and Governor Lew Wallace.
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Sewing Machines and Handguns
Interchangeable parts.
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