About That EIA Gasoline Demand -- August 6, 2022

Updates

August 7, 2022: link here. 

• WTI oil prices have given up nearly all their gains since Russia invaded Ukraine, falling roughly 9.5% over the course of the week amid fears oil demand is collapsing (opinion, not fact).
• Some oil pundits are now claiming that the Biden administration has been fabricating low gasoline demand data in order to drag prices lower (yes, that is true; "conspiracy theory" thinking; I don't buy it).
• While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand (they can both be correct; GasBuddy and EIA measuring two different things)
  
• I like Alex Kimani but he missed the target on this on, on a number of levels. 
• I was disappointed there was really no analysis; no number-crunching to try to explain things
• look at the weekly data, million bbls/day
  
• 7/15/22: 8.541
  
• 7/22/22: 9.245
  
• 7/29/22: 8.521 (w/w= minus 7.8%; y/y = -12.8% 
• one year ago, 7/31/21: 9.775
  

Original Post 

We'll talk about this again later.

The interesting thing: nothing supports the suggestion that gasoline demand has fallen that much, except the price of gasoline and crude oil have both come down significantly in just the past few days. Although it's hard to say gasoline at $4.25 "has come down significantly."

Suggestion regarding previous post. As a reminder:

US gasoline demand.

With new annotation:

Suggestion:

• Measuring apples and oranges.
  

Original Post

Gasoline demand: link here.  

• then explain:
• gasoline under $4.00 / gallon and dropping fast;
• WTI below $90 and dropping fast;
• US refiners operating at a very low capacity; trending toward 90% of their operating capacity; lowest in the last few years;

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Road trip.

Currently I am on the road: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.