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Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Back To Business -- June 21, 2022

Top energy story today: a report that anti-fossil fuel Biden-Granhalm administration is asking XOM to expedite its Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Sabine, TX. Absolutely huge; more below. 

Trending: on my Twitter energy feed --

  • it's all about the European energy crisis
    • Europeans in crisis mode
    • will now do everything to conserve natural gas going into winter 
    • why all the interest in coal? to conserve natural gas
    • quick reading suggests Russian not letting up on squeezing Europe
    • indications Russian ploys are working
  • it's back to coal for Germany, Austria, the Dutch, and likely, the UK
  • Germany committing to long-term LNG contracts with US
  • Groningen to shake again
    • if I read this correctly
      • currently, 4.5 bcm produced in CY 2022
      • was to completely end by end of year, CY 2022
      • will now target 2.8 bcm for production year ending October, 2023 
  • Dutch will also remove a cap on production at Dutch coal plants

Investors: usual disclaimers apply

  • OPEC producer says there exists a $30-war premium on the price of oil
    • tea leaves: if truce called, sanctions on Russia will fall faster than Biden's polling
  • oil has fallen so far many companies now at accidental high yields
  • AMZN: interesting analysis over at SeekingAlpha
  • US oil demand: finally, we're going to see a jump
  • anticipate: Biden to announce Federal gas tax holiday before July 4th
    • the gas tax holiday will come too late to save the GDP number for 2Q22
    • having said that, Obama has aid such a holiday -- the gas tax holiday, not the July 4th holiday -- is a "gimmick"

Oil demand: even if demand falls, is that bad for US oil stocks? Just asking.

Domestic LNG

  • US asking XOM to expedite Golden Pass LNG
  • RBN Energy, October 2, 2018
  • note: Golden Pass scheduled for 2025
  • September 2, 2021: 
    • Reminder: how the shale revolution changed things. Link here.  Or go directly to this link at Gulf Times:
    • the first liquefaction train of the Golden Pass LNG liquefication and export terminal in Sabine, Texas, a $10bn joint-venture formed by Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil, is scheduled to come online by 2024;

International LNG: huge story -- the huge new Qatar export terminal

  • now, XOM joins the partnership.
    • others: COP, Eni, and TotalEnergies
  • this expansion, previously announced, will increase Qatar's LNG capacity to 110 million metric tons / year vs 77 million currently
  • memo to self: find Texas/Louisiana LNG export capacity once Golden Pass on line

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First Day Of Sailing School

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