NDIC Site Still Compromised -- Unable To Post Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Part 6 -- May 22, 2022

Crude oil: US supply in days, excluding SPR, slips below 27 days.

Global wheat supply: less then ten weeks. Link here. A better link here:

• World wheat stocks for 2022-23 are expected to drop to a six-year low of 267 million metric tons, according to the USDA’s first global projections for the upcoming growing season. The agency cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and extreme weather hampering growing conditions in key regions as underlying factors.
• In the United States — the fourth largest global supplier of wheat — the USDA is expecting the smallest harvest since 1963 of hard red winter wheat, which makes up 40% of the domestic crop and is commonly milled into bread flour, as poor growing conditions delay planting. 
• Wheat futures in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis jumped by their exchange limits after the USDA’s global projections were first released last Thursday. For food manufacturers who rely on flour and other wheat-based ingredients to create baked goods and snacks, the poor supply outlook only adds to an already inflationary environment. 

Earlier I wrote: 

But three quick thoughts, folks may want to take these shortages more seriously:

• gasoline shortages, formula shortages, semi-conductor/chip shortage: one may want to take these seriously; more tomorrow, if I remember;
• shale oil remains bigger than folks realize -- watch Vicky Hollub, Warren Buffett
• it's amazing how fast we've gone from $1.99 gasoline to folks talking about $10-gasoline -- in less than a year? I guess elections matter.

Without question, the baby formula shortage took everyone by surprise. I was surprised.

I'm not dismissing the "food crisis" stories. 

Because I use my bike when grocery shopping I can only buy a limited amount of groceries each time I go to the store. But I am now adding an extra bag to whatever I would normally buy: a bag of non-perishables simply to put in storage in case it's needed later year (one from each line item below on each grocery trip above and beyond what I would normally buy):

• canned fish (tuna), canned meat (spam)
• soups
• flour, sugar, pancake mix, rice, spaghetti
  
• juices (apple)
• paper products 
• coffee is on auto-pilot: subscription delivery from Amazon -- in fact, I'm thinking of going Amazon subscription where available for non-perishables.
  

As I told a reader, I can live on tuna sandwiches and soup for a long, long time. I did that during four years of post-graduate education decades ago. 

I don't buy Oreo cookies but it will be interesting to see if there is a price-cut in cookies.