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Sunday, May 22, 2022

NDIC Site Still Compromised -- Unable To Post Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Part 4 -- May 22, 2022

Earlier, I posted:

Reserves: I don't "believe" any of these numbers because I can't accept data for two or three countries, and I assume if those two or three are wrong, the rest are wrong. Link here. If nothing else, Libya is a non-factor in light of today's geo-political events:

So, what are my thoughts on the geo-political events  (i.e., Putin's War and US sanctions on Russia)?

  • it goes without saying, so I will say it -- LOL -- that crude oil / natural gas trading routes have changed, perhaps for decades:
    • Russia loses Europe and turns east toward India, China
    • transportation costs and new infrastructure; supertankers instead of pipelines
  • Qatar and US compete for Europe
    • Qatar: limited upside
    • US: almost unlimited upside
  • supply / demand
    • even without Putin's War / US sanctions, meeting energy demands is now the big challenge, not "demand destruction"
    • supply -- particularly crude oil and diesel -- significantly constrained
    • big change: India
    • almost as big: China
  • energy transition is dead
    • short term: driven by liquidity crisis; recession; investor demand for dividends / companies that deliver profits
  • OPEC: spare capacity doesn't exist; OPEC continues to miss allowed increased quotas
  • analysts surprised that Russia continues to maintain crude oil production / exports / sales
    • increased transportation costs
    • selling at reduced prices
    • western oil service companies exiting Russia
    • parts to maintain Russian oil sector become more difficult to obtain

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