Clearing Out The In-Box -- May 10, 2022

Tom Brady:

• after retirement (2045) he will be lead NFL analyst for Fox Sports
• record-breaking contract: $375 million for ten years

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Putin's War

Russia, post Putin's War

• The war: a race against time.
  
• Russian economy will implode summer of 2022.
• Inevitable decline of its oil industry.  
• Putin's War will set back Russia fifty years. 

GPS: your teenage daughter has better GPS capability with her smartphone than Russian pilots

• hardware: Russia can't keep up with its losses; posted previously

• May Day parade: obviously short of tanks

Remember: global GPS -- managed by USAF.

Ukraine: 

• has captured more Russian tanks -- many of them still operational -- than Germany has in entire Germany Army

US:

• US senior staff colleges will be studying this war for a long time
• Russia: trained for defensive warfare, not offensive
• senior officers killed because senior NCOs not trained to make decisions in the field; very different from US

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Energy Transition

Transition: it's possible this will speed up transition to renewable energy; that's the debate. If money were not object, then renewable energy might be "winner" coming out of Putin's War -- but "time" and "money" are working against renewable energy. Me? US LNG is the big winner.

Twain's Mustache: one of a handful of analysts I trust / follow on my twitter feed, link here:

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Global Energy

The fundamentals aren't making sense -- unless one thinks the coming recession will end demand for oil once and for all as we know it.

Spare capacity: 

• Peter Zeihan:

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EU - NATO - ETC

Some think Putin's War will hasten break-up of NATO, EU, etc.

• won't happen; if anything, NATO, EU become stronger
• still looking for next EU / NATO spokesperson; quick, name NATO’s top general.
• my nominee: Zelenskyy (or however you spell his last name)
• no can can name head of EU, NATO, etc, but everyone knows who's running Ukraine and the war against Putin

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EVs

Some serious meetings this month after the Rivian-Ford and the Rivian-Amazon debacles.

• it's all about cash
• Tesla is now free cash flow positive (some question that);
• spent $9 billion, 2007 - 2019
• now, free cash flow positive, generating $2 billion to date
• Rivian? Link here.

Ford: huge deal

• United Rentals will buy 500 Ford F-150 Lightning electric trucks, 30 electric Transit vans; link here.
• who cares?
• at the close today, F was trading at $13.35, down another 20 cents; the bleeding has not stopped
• in past six months, F has lost 32% (share price); YTD down almost 40%; okay.
• Ford will sell all it can make, bu how many can it make and how fast?
• and margins?

• GM? Berenberg analyst likes GM along with some European auto makers
• "lukewarm" on Ford and Tesla; 
• The big question: who does Cathie Wood (ARKK) like? Link here.
  she sold "some" Tesla and bought "some" GM
  

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The Literary Page

Fifty best horror books of all time.

Link here. 

Stephen King with at least four.

#1: IT by Stephen King.

#4: The Shining by Stephen King. 

#9: Dracula by Bram Stoker.

#10: Frankenstein by Mary Shelley

#22: Pet Sematary by Stephen King.

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A Musical Interlude

Elenore or Happy Together?

Elenore, The Turtles