Oil Surges; Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 29, 2022

ISO NE: even if price of electricity doesn't spike to the 6th and 7th deciles, it is consistently running much higher in price than what I'm used to seeing.

• link here;
• earlier this a.m. surged to $120/MWh
• surged at same time as hydro "kicked in"; probably due to demand increasing as a new day begins, and wind, of course, does not respond

Oil surges:

• Brent: up 1.68%; up $1.81; trading at $109.40
• WTI: up 1.25%; up $1.32; trading at nearly $107
• diesel: average price hit a new record high overnight, $5.155 / gallon
• surpasses previous record of $5.153 / gallon set March 10, 2022
• see link and comments;
• helps explain the Pelosi-Schumer silliness yesterday
• White House monitoring the situation; all options on the table
• except:
• fewer regulations
• no new pipelines
• no new drilling
• no fracking

Price of oil surging:

• probably as much as a "short squeeze" as anything
• all things equal, expect crude oil to fall next week
• the fundamentals have not changed
• GDP suggests we are in a recession already
• plenty of oil in storage and in pipelines
• refiners working at 90+% capacity
• everything suggests plenty of oil (except perhaps "right" kind of oil -- see surging diesel prices; would be much worse if middle of winter and competing with heating oil)

White House: as much time spent on forgiving college loan debt as working to solve high-gasoline prices.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$106.70	4/29/2022	04/29/2021	04/29/2020	04/29/2019	04/29/2018
Active Rigs	36	16	31	64	62

Friday, April 29, 2022: 61 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 220 for one year

• 38137, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 10-5H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  
• 37855, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
  
• 37703, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,
  
• 37495, conf, True Oil, Northern State 31-36, North Branch, no production data,
  
• 36522, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-5, Blue Buttes, a very nice well,
  
• 36107, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, a nice well;
  

RBN Energy: off-season blizzard slams Bakken natural gas production.

Extreme blizzard conditions wreaked havoc on North Dakota energy infrastructure last weekend, taking offline as much as 60% of the state’s crude oil production and more than 80% of natural gas output, and leaving utility poles and power lines strewn across the landscape. 

On the gas side, the unprecedented supply loss is having never-before-seen impact on regional and upstream flows and storage activity. 

It is also compounding maintenance-related production declines in other basins, leaving Lower 48 natural gas output at its lowest since early February. Moreover, the extent of the storm-related damage to local infrastructure could prolong the supply recovery. In today’s RBN blog, we break down the aftereffects of the offseason winter storm on regional gas market fundamentals.

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Initial Production

The wells:

• 37855, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	25147	21583
1-2022	30430	21511
12-2021	28476	17133

• 37703, conf, Whiting, Lacey 43-2XH, Sanish, producing, a nice well,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	21340	15237
1-2022	23431	13050
12-2021	17223	9990

• 36522, conf, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-5, Blue Buttes, a very nice well,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	30316	54681
1-2022	27226	44196
12-2021	36387	59815
11-2021	41499	66551
10-2021	6224	9917

• 36107, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, a nice well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2022	21227	37219
1-2022	31879	49596
12-2021	31539	45127
11-2021	27033	35235
10-2021	378	0