Not Ready-For-Prime-Time But I Think The Message Is Clear -- April 19, 2022

This is not going to go anywhere -- President Biden is not going to all of a sudden reverse course and green light the Keystone XL, but late yesterday the twitter-verse was full of tweets from north of the border (Canada) and south of the border (the United States) about the desperate need to get the Keystone XL built. 

First of all, it wouldn't change anything before the mid-terms and this is all about politics. 

But, wow, what a doofus. What a huge mistake. There was no need to red-light the Keystone XL -- he had won the elections. No politician wants to make a decision that is irreversible. Killing the Keystone was one of a handful of executive orders that was irreversible. 

See this note from April 17, 2022, with comment from reader who knows this stuff really, really well. Although the Keystone XL was not mentioned, it explains why that pipeline was so important.

This gives me another chance for a shout-out to readers. Wow, I've learned a lot from readers.

My biggest concern when I blog? Stepping on the toes of those readers who know this stuff so much better than I do. As I've said many times, I probably understand one percent of all that goes on in the oil patch. I've learned a lot after a decade of blogging about the "Bakken revolution" but I remain humbled every time a reader who really knows this stuff comments on something I've posted. 

Back to Biden and the Keystone XL. There are two data points to consider: polling numbers and dollars being raised for the mid-term elections.

Polling: the president's numbers are so low two things to note:

• his support has now dwindled to his core, ultra-left constituency who will vote "D" no matter what;
• those numbers cannot go lower but "D" turnout at the mid-term elections could plummet if Biden were to reverse course on the Keystone XL

Dollars: political dollars are maximized on wedge issues:

• with energy, the one edge issue is Big Oil; as long as that issue remains on the table, both sides will raise a lot of cash;
• if today, Biden reversed course on the Keystone XL, not only would he not gain anything in polling, this huge wedge issue would be taken off the table and dollars coming in on this issue would stop immediately
• as long as the Keystone XL remains on the table, dollars will be streaming in

But having said all that, the amount of noise in the twitter-verse regarding the Keystone XL was quite surprising. I really thought the issue was dead. I guess the metaphorical steel stake has not yet been plunged into the metaphorical heart of this pipeline issue.