Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Huge Day Of News Today; Earnings Pending Wednesday -- April 27, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Peter Zeihan e-mail campaign archive: link here. Today's missive is particularly interesting. If one thinks a global oil economy is "messy," wait until we go to an "all-green" economy. 

Desperate: cutting off natural gas to Bulgaria and Poland is Putin's "nuclear option." Great map here.

China Covid-19 lock downs: there was a single note over at twitter early this morning suggesting things were improving in China. If I find it again, I will link it.

NYMEX ULSD futures closed at $4.50 yesterday, Tuesday, a "settlement record high." Link here. This story is getting little play in Texas and elsewhere but my hunch: this is a big story in New York. And then look at this: from Fujairah -- "fu-ji-rah" -- oil product stocks after rare fuel oil shipment to US. Link here. Will be stand-alone post later.

XOM: hikes resource estimate after three new Guyana discoveries; estimates now at 11 billion boe recoverable. To put that in perspective, Bakken estimates at 50 billion bbls crude oil using Leigh Price's estimates of OOIL and 10% recovery. 

Goldman's top five shale plays: Hess, EOG, PXD, COP, Kosmos. Will post stand-alone later. Link here for now.

Of interest:

• AMGN (after market close: forecast; $4.15)
• AR (Antero Resources) (after market close; forecast: $1.12)
• Boeing (before market open; forecast: -27 cents)
• CP (Canadian Pacific) (after market close)
• NSC (Norfolk Southern Corp) (before market open; forecast: $2.92)
  
• HES (before market open; forecast: $1.13)
• QCOM (after market close; forecast: $2.91)
• F (Ford) (forecast: 37 cents)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$102.10	4/27/2022	04/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018
Active Rigs	37	16	30	64	62

Wednesday, April April 27, 2022: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 212 for one year

• 38139, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 11-8H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  
• 37723, conf, Enerplus, Lynx 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, huge well, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 162K 2/22;
  
• 35561, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnit E 159-95-31-30-2MBH, Northwest McGregor, nice well; first production, 11/21; t--; cum 98K 2/22;
  

RBN Energy: Everything has changed! Plan to quickly wean Europe off Russian gas faces major hurdles. 

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe is planning massive and rapid changes in its natural gas supply, including a significant increase in LNG deliveries from the U.S. But there are major challenges and implications associated with this shift. For example, how can the U.S. government prod U.S. exporters to send more LNG to Europe? How can LNG buyers — or sellers — collaborate without running afoul of European Union antitrust laws? Can the development of new LNG import terminals be fast-tracked? And can long-term contracts for Russian pipeline gas be breached without penalty now that Russia has suspended deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria for not paying in rubles? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what U.S. and European efforts need to overcome.

As readers of Daniel Yergin’s “The Prize” will know, energy price spikes caused by military or geopolitical conflict are a hallmark of the oil industry. The Arab-Israeli War in 1973 gave rise to the first oil price shock of modern times, followed in 1979 when oil production was reduced after the Iranian revolution. More oil price shocks came with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the ensuing Gulf War and with the Arab Spring and Syrian conflict of 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Incidentally, The Prize, by Daniel Yergin, was perhaps one of the first and one of the best books I have read in any genre. For years I considered it "the bible" for those who wanted to understand the history of oil. It remains easily accessible on my top shelf but I haven't looked at it in a long time. It just seems that was so long ago, and almost irrelevant -- but in a very good way.