Clearing Out The In-Box -- April 29, 2022

Oil:

• is it time for another SPR release?
• this is why Schumer - Pelosi are so concerned
• they can put all the auditors they want between crude oil at the well head and the pumps at my neighborhood service station, but those auditors cannot possibly affect the price of oil. Period. Dot.
• surging
• I guess losing 60% of the Bakken is not trivial
• or, maybe it's short covering as we get to the end of the month
• Brent: up 2.34%; up $2.52; trading at $110.10
• WTI: up 2.36%; up $2.49; trading at $107.80

Chevron:

• a reader tells me that Chevron plans to increase their production by 35% (year-over-year?)
• all the auditors ...

Records:

• oil set to record the longest winning streak in three years

Solar:

• US solar industry braces for slump in new capacity
• solar farms: NIMBY
• rooftop solar panels: folks don't have the cash to install such systems
• supply chain shortages and raw material inflation: will kill US solar

Russia:

• one year from now we'll be reading stories about Russian oil sector collapsing due to lack of western technology
• if I know that, Putin knows that

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Business Models

No pun intended.

Victoria's Secret will open a "storefront" on Amazon.

When a reader sent me that link, my reply:

Supports my assertion that companies like Amazon will lap others.

It also suggests that Victoria's Secret is really, really hurting.

I don't go to the malls much any more, maybe once or twice a year I visit the local mall to take Sophia. I find the malls generally empty and that's where the bulk of Virginia's Secret stores are located.

We will know in a year or so if this business decision is as bad as CNN+, New Coke, Edsel, AMC Gremlin. or the US Football League which lasted three years trying to compete with the NFL.

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Little Missouri River at Marmarth, ND

Level is at recent record highs, link here.

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Amazon

How bad did these affect Amazon's earnings?

• high price of gasoline / diesel
• supply chain issues
• inflation
• Rivian

A response:

This stock's poor performance has nothing to do with government stimulus checks or no government stimulus checks. This is about the end of the Pandemic, an overvalued American dollar, and what happens when you operate a delivery company and fuel prices skyrocket. 

Amazon is simply saying here that we are going to defend our market share we won in the last 2 years from the brick and competitors who are now getting back all their customers that Amazon stole or borrowed, depending on your point of view. If you are willing to look the other way on several more quarters of scorched earth pricing and profits, Amazon is for you as an investor. Amazon has the financial power to do this. However, most other Ecommerce companies do not. Many will fail in the next year or two.

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Pantheon Resources

Why are we not hearing more about Pantheon Resources and Alaska?

Link here to SeekingAlpha.

 

A reader alerted me to Pantheon Resources. 

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Intel Continues To Un-Impress Me

Link here.

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Biden's Foreign Policy: Leading From Behind

A reader sent me a cartoon of Biden and his foreign policy. An anti-Biden cartoon.

My reply:

I have no idea what Biden's foreign policy is but actions speak louder than words. 

Ukraine is not scoring the successes we see reported each day without huge, unprecedented support from the US.

Biden is asking for an unprecedented $33 billion for Ukraine and to get it quickly, and he will get it. At least most of it. GOP will be crazy to vote against it.

Quick: who's running the US war in Europe?

• name the US president
• name the US VP
• name the SecDef: it's not Rumsfeld
• name the Pentagon's Chief of Staff: it's not Colin Powell
• name the US European commander: I have no idea
• name the Air Force commander in Europe (USAFE): I have no idea and if I don't know, no one except a few actually know and where do you think Ukraine is getting all their intel (drones and RC-135s)
• name the US combatant commander: it's not Stormin' Norman

Devil's advocate:

• if Trump were president, Trump would clearly be in charge;
• Trump would be a very, very visible Commander-in-Chief
• things would be a lot worse with Trump running the show

Just being a devil's advocate.