Russia -- Junk -- On Brink Of Insolvency -- Day 10 Of The War -- March 9, 2022

Tea leaves: Russia is starting to feel the effect of "going broke":

• it's day 13 of the invasion
• Russia desperately wants NATO to get involved
• direct hit on hospital hoping to drag NATO into conflict
• so far, NATO holding firm: "we" don't want to get involved officially

Russia: Fitch Ratings -- junk (Russia, not Fitch);

• on the brink of defaulting on its debts
• invasion: February 24, 2022
• data as of March 6, 2022, or thereabouts, 10 days after invasion
• ratings released by Fitch, March 9, 2022 -- 13 days after invasion
  

OPEC, spare capacity:

• the quota is an additional 400,000 bopd/month each month going forward
• OPEC members raised their production in February, 2022 by a collective 480,000 bpd -- a headline story;
• combined, OPEC+ produced 560,000 bpd more in February than it did in January
• although this report generated a headline, 560,00 bpd is not enough to offset months of the group's underproducton
• Russian crude oil exports is around 7 million bopd (fact-check me on this) -- Washington Post;
  
• Russian crude oil exports to US is around 600,000 bpd; ban kicks in, May, 2022
• mostly to California, Washington State, and Hawaii;
  
• fourteen members of the group underproduced their quota for the month

US SPR: to the previously announced 32-million bbl SPR release, the US will release an additional 18 million million bbls bring total to 50 million bbls to current program. That works out to 12 hours of global supply/demand. Meanwhile the BLP (Biden Leasing Permitorium) remains in effect. In round numbers the SPR is currently running about 600 million bbls (link here);

• it appears 590 million bbls is the historical average
• we can easily go to 250 million bbls -- that would be very low, but it's war --
• so, 600 - 250 = 350
• 350/50 = 7 more 50 million-bbl releases certainly very doable.
• let's go Brandon

Germany: won't extend nuclear plant lifespan to combat energy concerns. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$109.80	3/9/2022	03/09/2021	03/09/2020	03/09/2019	03/09/2018
Active Rigs	32	15	55	67	59

Two new permits, #38821 - #38822, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Camp (McKenzie)
• Comment: 
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Ron wells in SWSW 21-152-101; 
• to be sited 300 FSL and between 570 FWL and 600 FWL

Fourteen permits renewed:

• Zavanna (6): six Shorthorn permits in Williams County;
• Hess (6): six BB-Federal A-LS permits in McKenize County;
• Liberty Resources (2): two Elroy permits in Williams County;