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Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Russia -- Junk -- On Brink Of Insolvency -- Day 10 Of The War -- March 9, 2022

Tea leaves: Russia is starting to feel the effect of "going broke":

  • it's day 13 of the invasion
  • Russia desperately wants NATO to get involved
  • direct hit on hospital hoping to drag NATO into conflict
  • so far, NATO holding firm: "we" don't want to get involved officially

Russia: Fitch Ratings -- junk (Russia, not Fitch);

  • on the brink of defaulting on its debts
  • invasion: February 24, 2022
  • data as of March 6, 2022, or thereabouts, 10 days after invasion
  • ratings released by Fitch, March 9, 2022 -- 13 days after invasion

OPEC, spare capacity:

  • the quota is an additional 400,000 bopd/month each month going forward
    • OPEC members raised their production in February, 2022 by a collective 480,000 bpd -- a headline story;
    • combined, OPEC+ produced 560,000 bpd more in February than it did in January
    • although this report generated a headline, 560,00 bpd is not enough to offset months of the group's underproducton
  • Russian crude oil exports is around 7 million bopd (fact-check me on this) -- Washington Post;
  • Russian crude oil exports to US is around 600,000 bpd; ban kicks in, May, 2022
    • mostly to California, Washington State, and Hawaii;
  • fourteen members of the group underproduced their quota for the month

US SPR: to the previously announced 32-million bbl SPR release, the US will release an additional 18 million million bbls bring total to 50 million bbls to current program. That works out to 12 hours of global supply/demand. Meanwhile the BLP (Biden Leasing Permitorium) remains in effect. In round numbers the SPR is currently running about 600 million bbls (link here);

  • it appears 590 million bbls is the historical average
  • we can easily go to 250 million bbls -- that would be very low, but it's war --
  • so, 600 - 250 = 350
  • 350/50 = 7 more 50 million-bbl releases certainly very doable.
  • let's go Brandon

Germany: won't extend nuclear plant lifespan to combat energy concerns. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$109.80
3/9/202203/09/202103/09/202003/09/201903/09/2018
Active Rigs3215556759

Two new permits, #38821 - #38822, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Camp (McKenzie)
  • Comment: 
    • Grayson Mill has permits for two Ron wells in SWSW 21-152-101; 
    • to be sited 300 FSL and between 570 FWL and 600 FWL

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • Zavanna (6): six Shorthorn permits in Williams County;
  • Hess (6): six BB-Federal A-LS permits in McKenize County;
  • Liberty Resources (2): two Elroy permits in Williams County;

8 comments:

  1. 2021 Russia imports of commie crude were 72MBO or ~200KBOPD. And declining. See chart from EIA

    https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/browser/#/?vs=PET_IMPORTS.WORLD-US-ALL.A

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, thank you. And the ban doesn't even kick in until May, 2022

      Delete
  2. n 2021, the United States exported about 8.63 million b/d of petroleum to 176 countries and 4 U.S. territories. Crude oil exports of about 2.98 million b/d accounted for 35% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports in 2021.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know where you stand on this issue, but I'm with the group that still "believes" the USA is energy independent.

      Delete
    2. totally agreed on independence - for now - and again in mind little mind it is just a matter of logistics and quality. Getting the right crude from producing states to US refineries.

      Delete
    3. Wow, I can't believe it. Someone else who understands the importance of "kinds" oil, the "right" oil. Thank you so much.

      Delete
    4. right...the "shale revolution' really turned the refineries upside down given their historical inputs were from heavier crude origins. Seems counter intuitive to me that lighter crude is harder to work with - maybe someone can explain that sometime b/c some of this can be directly put into cars - <>.

      The other thing I am stumped by is the whole grease recycling thing. Why this isn't a larger part of our domestic fuel mix and, by association, climate solution is baffling. We throw out grease from almost every restaurant in the US (some is recycled) and yet that can EASILY be filtered and centrifuged (remove water) then directly put into most diesel engines - again <>. Plenty of content out there and have personally seen this work VERY well. Remember, I laugh at those who will come back and say "we have 100 years of oil left'. Then what? Waste to fuel cannot be a bad thing. All hands on deck.

      Delete

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