Oil Surging -- This Time "It Feels Real" -- March 21, 2022

This time "it feels real."

Last week? A trial run.

It's finally sinking in:

• analysts now realize that even if the war ends today, the sanctions on Russia won't end overnight;
• possibly, if Putin pulled back after the first two or three weeks, there was a possibility that sanctions would gradually be "taken down"
• but now, with the stories coming out of Ukraine, no indication this will end any time soon, and war spreading ever closer to Poland, this time the surge in oil prices feels real;

But that's only part of the problem. The bigger issue:

• everyone coming around to "the myth of spare capacity"
• tipping point: Saudi Arabia says it's not responsible for what happens next;

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Moving Day