Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- March 8, 2022

Buffett: back in world's top five. Link here. I wasn't going to post the article; it's unimportant. But then I read the last paragraph; another example of a writer not thinking:

On Friday, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a purchase of almost 30 million additional shares in Occidental Petroleum Corp., a Houston-based oil and gas company. The deal, worth roughly $1.6 billion at midday Monday, helped draw down his company’s near-record $146.7 billion pile of cash.

So, $1.6 billion will help draw down his company's near-record $150 billion pile of cash. Oh, give me a break. If I have $150 and I give Sophia $2.00, for all intents and purposes I still have $150.  

On the other hand, this just goes to show me how much money BRK has -- makes a huge purchase -- 30 million shares of OXY -- and it doesn't even dent the pile of cash, much less the market cap of BRK. 

Buffett: here's the same story, again over at Yahoo!Finance, but it's not just a footnote. Now it's the headline: "Buffet chips away at cash pile with big Occidental bet." LOL. Chipping away is about as accurate as it gets. He spent $1.6 billion out of his $150 billion pile of cash. Whoo-hoo.

Biden: bans Russian oil, coal, natural gas. Pretty much bans everything. 

Russian oil: again for those who think Russia is still going to sell its oil, as long as its tankers can get out of the Black Sea. From S&P Global: surging oil, Russian crude woes pull down China independent refiners' runs. Link here. 

Race against time (they're reading the blog): Putin cannot "withstand" this war behond March. Link here. Russians are used to bare shelves, but this time it's gonna be a whole worse.

Bank of America (for what it's worth, I agree with all of this), link here:

• Bank of America's global oil team lifted oil price forecasts across the board, raising 2022 / 23 Brent forecasts to $110 / $95 from $85 / $75, respectively; the long-term price forecast was lifted from $60 to $70.
• The bank sees risk of a spike to $150 Brent, on the back of war in Ukraine.
• However, US analyst Doug Leggate is "disinclined to chase spot prices" writing that now is the time to rotate out of high-beta oil stocks, and into high-quality names and refiners.
• Leggate downgraded Ovintiv, OXY, NOG, COP, Diamondback, and EOG to hold from buy in Tuesday's note.
• Interestingly, the US analyst calls the environment a "golden age" for US refiners, as a pivot to bio-fuels has reduced capacity industry wide, and the crisis in Europe has raised operating costs for European competitors.
• Doug upgrades Holly, PBF, and Delek in Tuesday's note.
• In Europe, analyst Christopher Kuplent upgrades Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) to buy, citing structurally higher natural gas prices in Europe. 

Some thoughts:

• Brent forecasts are too low;
• I would not rotate out of (sell) high-beta stocks; I would hold; let profits run; use dividends, other revenue streams to start building / adding to positions in high-quality tech, streaming, and cloud names.