Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- March 3, 2022

First things first:

• now that I've had a chance to sleep on it, I've sorted this thing out; my mind is clear (as mud)
• late last night there was a mini-debate on the blog between two readers about sanctions on Russia and how those sanctions affected the price of oil
• the discussion was started by me (sorry) and the two debating this: the ever-present "anonymous" and "rsj."
• clearly, "rjs" won that debate; not even close
• "anonymous" had some great points; his/her presentation was better; looked impressive, but missed the target
• "rjs"? right on, as usual, hit the target

ISO NE: wow, I hope you're not charging your EV in Boston overnight.

• demand is paltry
• five-minute real-time: trending toward $400 / MWh at 0400
• pricing at 8th decile; highest decile it can ever hit in NE
• oil: 2%
• natural gas + nuclear: 83%
• renewables: 8% with wind contributing 35%
• there is nothing "wrong" about any of the numbers coming out of ISO NE this morning except the rpice: one has to ask: why is the price of electricity so high today
• it's not rocket science

SNOW: nope, not the weather. The Cloud company. Plummeting.

• off 22% in pre-market trading;
• reports slowing revenue
• annual forecast underwhelms; link to MarketStreet
• another rookie tech mistake from BRK?
• no moat? Anyone can do this: Google, MSFT, Apple
  

Citi shorted oil. Bad move. Stops out. Link to ZeroHedge.

• how can analysts be this wrong?

Why oil is surging; why Russia is imploding: death by a thousand cuts.

• Sabre Corp -- software giant that pretty much sells seats for all airlines -- ends service with Russia's Aeroflot; will cripple the airline's ability to sell seats
  
• sure, Russia is still selling Urals; sure, the tankers are still moving if they can get out of the Black Sea;
• so, sure, Russia oil is moving; at what price?
• even before sanctions, even before the incursion, Russia fails to meet OPEC+; spare capacity myth;
• link  to Charles Kennedy;
• US hits Russian oil refining sector slaps export curbs on Belarus;
• Ryan Roberts doesn't get it; link here; thinks it's a structural inflationary issue;
• sure: inflation tool crude oil from $60 to $120 overnight

Ukraine: in 2007, Time named Putin its "Person of the Year"; link to Brian Taylor;

• full transcript here;
• cut to the chase: do you think Ukraine will ever again become part of Russia;
• Putin: never
• Time: that's what we wanted to hear; good for you; you're our person of the year
• is gullible spelled with five consonants or four?

Crude quality matters: link to Mark Rossano; another one reading the blog for story ideas.

Mideast economies: taking advantage of all this

• talk about a windfall; no wonder they're not interested in trying to bring down prices;
• link to Oxford Business Group;

US investors:

• relative performance over the next 2+ years is going to be dramatic, but you better be long; 
• link to Dan Pickering;
  

Ford:recovers; shocked "the system" in a positive way -- analyst

• will create two distinct internal teams
• one team: will make money;
• the other team: will spend that money
• link here here;
• Ford Blue will make money;
• Ford Model e will spend money
• I can't make this stuff up
• apparently the market loved this
• by the way, a lot of companies are doing this: it's called spinning off their cash cow;
• what's really cool about this, investors can see how much its going to cost them if the want to invest in EVs and renewables.