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Thursday, March 3, 2022

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- March 3, 2022

First things first:

  • now that I've had a chance to sleep on it, I've sorted this thing out; my mind is clear (as mud)
  • late last night there was a mini-debate on the blog between two readers about sanctions on Russia and how those sanctions affected the price of oil
  • the discussion was started by me (sorry) and the two debating this: the ever-present "anonymous" and "rsj."
  • clearly, "rjs" won that debate; not even close
  • "anonymous" had some great points; his/her presentation was better; looked impressive, but missed the target
  • "rjs"? right on, as usual, hit the target

ISO NE: wow, I hope you're not charging your EV in Boston overnight.

  • demand is paltry
  • five-minute real-time: trending toward $400 / MWh at 0400
  • pricing at 8th decile; highest decile it can ever hit in NE
  • oil: 2%
  • natural gas + nuclear: 83%
  • renewables: 8% with wind contributing 35%
  • there is nothing "wrong" about any of the numbers coming out of ISO NE this morning except the rpice: one has to ask: why is the price of electricity so high today
  • it's not rocket science


SNOW: nope, not the weather. The Cloud company. Plummeting.

  • off 22% in pre-market trading;
  • reports slowing revenue
  • annual forecast underwhelms; link to MarketStreet
  • another rookie tech mistake from BRK?
  • no moat? Anyone can do this: Google, MSFT, Apple

Citi shorted oil. Bad move. Stops out. Link to ZeroHedge.

  • how can analysts be this wrong?

Why oil is surging; why Russia is imploding: death by a thousand cuts.

  • Sabre Corp -- software giant that pretty much sells seats for all airlines -- ends service with Russia's Aeroflot; will cripple the airline's ability to sell seats
  • sure, Russia is still selling Urals; sure, the tankers are still moving if they can get out of the Black Sea;
    • so, sure, Russia oil is moving; at what price?
  • even before sanctions, even before the incursion, Russia fails to meet OPEC+; spare capacity myth;
  • US hits Russian oil refining sector slaps export curbs on Belarus;
  • Ryan Roberts doesn't get it; link here; thinks it's a structural inflationary issue;
    • sure: inflation tool crude oil from $60 to $120 overnight

Ukraine: in 2007, Time named Putin its "Person of the Year"; link to Brian Taylor;

  • full transcript here;
  • cut to the chase: do you think Ukraine will ever again become part of Russia;
  • Putin: never
  • Time: that's what we wanted to hear; good for you; you're our person of the year
  • is gullible spelled with five consonants or four?

Crude quality matters: link to Mark Rossano; another one reading the blog for story ideas.

Mideast economies: taking advantage of all this

US investors:

  • relative performance over the next 2+ years is going to be dramatic, but you better be long; 
  • link to Dan Pickering;

Ford:recovers; shocked "the system" in a positive way -- analyst

  • will create two distinct internal teams
    • one team: will make money;
    • the other team: will spend that money
  • link here here;
    • Ford Blue will make money;
    • Ford Model e will spend money
  • I can't make this stuff up
  • apparently the market loved this
  • by the way, a lot of companies are doing this: it's called spinning off their cash cow;
  • what's really cool about this, investors can see how much its going to cost them if the want to invest in EVs and renewables. 

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