See "observations regarding wells coming off confidential list this next week" at this link.
- Bakken operators earnings, 1Q22:
- earnings and free cash flow should be huge, based on price of oil;
- those earnings and free cash flow will not be as great as they could be;
- those earnings and free cash flow could actually be less than expected:
- very few operators are completing their wells
- this could affect companies like NOG
- unable to complete wells due to lack of workers
- unwilling to complete wells with such high fracking sand costs, other costs
- interestingly, this "completion issue" may have something to do with focus
- a lot of DUCs have been completed; running up against two-year deadline
- frack resources moved to older DUCs; newer wells will have to wait
- might there be other reasons newer wells are not being completed?
- unwilling to even add rigs because unable to complete wells
- however, less rigs = less CAPEX
- the calendar:
- January is a tough month to produce in the Bakken
- February is probably worse (and it's a short month)
- March: road restrictions start to kick in
- any good news:
- EIA predicts huge jump in shale production in April, but might this be the Permian, and not the Bakken?
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