Economic Indicators -- March 24, 2022

My thoughts exactly, link here. I see neither a recession nor stagflation:

Weekly jobs unemployment claims:

• five-decade low; lowest level since the year I graduated from high school, 1969
• well under 200,000
• came in at 187,000
• expectation: 210,000
• analyst's top concern, the meme, "the fast-spreading sub-variant of Omicron, known as BA.2"
• or, as I would suggest, "release the kraken"
  

Definition of stagflation: link here --

• high inflation rate
• some suggest the high-water mark will be 2Q22 and then slowly drop from there
  
• economic growth rate slows: 
• of course it's going to slow; that's the Fed's hope; taking steps to slow high inflation will necessarily slow economic growth
  
• unemployment remains steadily high: not yet, and no signs that will happen.
  

Schwab conference yesterday:

• inflation watch
• recently came in at 7.91% or thereabouts; I thought it was closer to 7.9%;
• next reading could have an "8-handle"
• Schwab's perspective: that will be the high and from then on, slowly come down;
• they had a nice chart -- after a rate hike the market slumps -- time to normalize back to 100 on the market, after first rate hike:
• slow tightening: six months
• moderate tightening: six months
• fast tightening: 24 months
• two takeaways for me
• six-month buying opportunity;
• returns will definitely be less, but still "worthwhile"
  
• Schwab thinks we will see a "moderate" tightening policy
• the return on equities will be significantly slower than the last few years
• dividend-paying portfolio now in vogue.
  

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here.Yield -- 2.377%. Up almost 6 basis points.
  
• DXY: link here. 98.79. Pretty much flat.
  
• Silver: link here. Up half-a-percent; $25.32.
  
• Gold: link here. Flat. $1,947.15.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Continues to drop. 23.2.

EVs:

• Nikola has begun production of its first EV semi -- tractor for 18-wheeler.
• factory: Coolidge, AZ
• deliveries to begin 2Q22
• article did not provide prices or price comparisons
• intended for shorter routes; range of 350 miles
• a longer-range version; hydrogen fuel cell, is on track to begin shipping next year