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Monday, February 14, 2022

Video Of The Week: Clearing The Logjam At The Bridge -- February 14, 2022

Source: Ontario says it plans to lift proof of vaccination requirements from March 1, 2022. Needs to be fact-checked. 

Masks: every Super Bowl attendee given free N95 mask as a souvenir.

Shale and $100 oil: from Rystad Energy. For all practical purposes, WTI is now "at $100":

  • oil at $100 could trigger an additional 2.2 million bpd of US tight oil output by 2023.
  • tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd.
  • high oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight.

Chariots on fire: Stellantis recalls 20,000  plug-in minivans for fire risks. Link here.

An internal investigation found 12 incidents of fires in vehicles from the 2017 and 2018 model years, the automaker said Friday in a statement. 
All of the minivans were parked and turned off, and eight were charging when the fires occurred
Comment: probably not smart to park these vans in a garage or near a structure or near another car.

For investors:

  • NOG: to uplist to the NYST; effective February 17, 2022; same symbol; Thursday, this week;
  • Yahoo!Finance: T -- analysis indicates that ATT will stabilize and will pay a future dividend of $1.11. With an indicated price today, $24.50, yield will be 4.5%. Link here.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: owns three of the top ways to make money in this market. IBD.
  • RBC: $115 WTI summer; sustained $95+WTI through 2023; FCF over those two years would = ~67% of the entire capital structure of the average CDN energy stock. Link here.
  • Autos: North American automotive builds could increase by 2.1 million vehicles in 2022; link here

Video of the week: clearing the logjam at the bridge.  

Focus on Joan Crawford: link here to Roger Ebert.

Cartoon of the day:

4 comments:

  1. In years past the higher oil prices would cause production to increase and, in short order, flood the market and crash the price.
    With the margins so tight, this price run up could potentially be prolonged, in spite of supply increase.
    My 2 cents worth

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Cathy Wood is on record saying that oil will drop back to $3 this summer (no typo -- three dollars per barrel of crude oil). Others say we will see $150.

      I assume the price will be somewhere between the two extremes.

      Delete
  2. Agreed that WTI is close to $100 now. But DEC22 is at $82 and DEC23 is at $76.

    Rystad showed three cases, $40/$70/$100. Right now the strip is about halfway between their $70 and $100 cases.

    Of course we don't know what will happen, oil price hard to predict. But if you just go off the betting market strip, it's $80 average or so. Implies about a $12.5 MM exit from DEC23. Not even really that aggressive a call. EIA sees 12.8 exit in DEC23.

    Personally, I think even if the strip happens, oil will get to 13 before DEC23. Think 80 is enough to do it, don't need 100.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I stand by my earlier comment:

      I think Cathy Wood is on record saying that oil will drop back to $3 this summer (no typo -- three dollars per barrel of crude oil). Others say we will see $150.

      I assume the price will be somewhere between the two extremes.

      Delete

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