NE ISO Out Of Oil, Coal? Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- February 7, 2022

NJ: mask mandate removed for public schools. A huge "thank you" to all the politicians photographed maskless while visiting schools where kindergarten and first-grade students masked. 

Bakken electricity: from The Bismarck Tribune:

Electric power generation from the Missouri River’s six upstream dams fell below average in 2021, forcing the federal agency that sells the power to buy electricity on the open market to fulfill contracts — a cost that may ultimately be passed on to ratepayers in a half-dozen states. 

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers manages dams and reservoirs along the 2,341-mile river. Mike Swenson, a Corps engineer in Omaha, Nebraska, said that energy production from the dams in the Dakotas, Montana and Nebraska was below average because water was kept in reservoirs to make up for drought conditions. 

Comment: just wait until $3 billion cryptomining company goes into operation west of Williston.

NE ISO: is New England temporarily out of oil, coal? That's how I'm reading the numbers this morning. I could be wrong but I'll let CNBC explain it.

• Monday morning commute beginning
• demand at a very paltry 16,499 MW
• pricing at 8th decile; highest decile it will ever get;
• spiked to $320 / MW
• at this price need to use least expensive option: coal
• most expensive option: hydro
• use of natural gas is climbing which is typical, nothing unusual here
• but I can't recall oil ever going to "0" when prices are surging; at zero this morning;
• coal, of course, at "0" has been common the past couple of weeks; at zero this morning;
• hydro at an incredible 12%
• renewables only 7%k and of that wind at 33%; should be maxed out at 50%+
• wind: 7% x 33% = 2% contributions; I've seen much worse
• but total renewable under 1,000 MW; 0.02*925 = 18.5 MW for wind
• 18.5 / 16,499 = 0.1% -- a tenth of a percent of energy supply is being provided by all those wind turbines in New England this morning
• my hunch: the way electric utility rates are set, my hunch -- the wind developers are making huge amounts of money on this; 

EIA: yesterday -- New England natural gas and electricity prices increase on supply constraints and high-demand heating costs; link here. 

• most interesting "thing" about this government tweet: it came out on Sunday when "no one" would see it
• the graphic is even worse than the headline
• I have readers who suggest the numbers are "false"; whatever
• prices for natural gas and electricity are now greater than 4x "normal"
• 4x normal doesn't sound so bad until you see the actual numbers
• an average monthly utility bill of $200 could now run $800
• electricity, wholesale, day-ahead, spot: $210 vs $40
• natural gas, spot: $30 (rounded; actual $29) vs $4

Note source: EIA pulls their data from private company. 

EVs: headline story today in The WSJ -- "Green Startups Stumble, Accelerating Selloff of Risky Stocks."
once-hot EV makers and battery suppliers face investigations and doubts by technology:

• we'll look in on F later today;
• from the linked article:

Electric-vehicle startups and other green tech companies soared early last year. Now a wave of investigations, outside allegations and growing investor skepticism have sent shares down 75% or more for many of them.

Last week, investigations by boards of directors into top executives at two electric-vehicle makers led to management changes. A short seller alleged that a startup lithium producer’s technology doesn’t work. And an agriculture-technology company’s shares fell further after it wrote off most of the value of a recent acquisition.

Many of the companies went public through special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, an alternative to traditional initial public offerings that allows companies to make lofty business projections. Some of the deals generated frenzied buying by small investors who are eager to invest in companies they believe will help reduce carbon emissions and limit climate change. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$91.62	2/7/2022	02/07/2021	02/07/2020	02/07/2019	02/07/2018
Active Rigs	34	15	54	63	58

Monday, February 7, 2022: 22 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 77 for the year
36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH,

Sunday, February 6, 2022: 21 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 76 for the year
38444, conf, Eagle Operating, Ober 20-5,
38421, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-
38420, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37331, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155=94-0310H-5,
36619, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH,
35130, conf, Enerplus, Blackwidow 149-92-32D-29H,

Saturday, February 5, 2022: 15 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
38422, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 4-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37448, conf, Koda Resources Operating, Porter 2614-2BH,

RBN Energy: Alberta's oil sands production setting up for another record year in 2022.

Oil sands, the workhorse of Alberta’s — and Canada’s — crude oil production growth, achieved a record production year in 2021. A steady turnaround in crude oil prices, improved market access, and the tried-and-true resilience of oil sands producers combined to drive the increase in output. With 2022 barely out of the starting blocks, the oil sands players have provided production guidance for this year that, if fulfilled, could set the oil sands on track for another year of record output. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the latest production guidance estimates and what these could mean for the availability of oil pipeline export capacity from Western Canada.

With benchmark crude oil prices reaching seven-year highs in the past two weeks, the remarkable turnaround in crude oil prices has not gone unnoticed by Alberta’s oil sands producers. Seeking to capitalize on their corporate resilience, lower cost structures, and the improved market conditions, these producers are starting to gear up for increased output. This apparent oil sands renewal comes after what has been several years of very tumultuous conditions for Western Canada’s most important industry.