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Monday, February 28, 2022

Gut Check: Ukraine Seeks Immediate EU Membership As Russia Closes In On Kiev -- 12:45 P.M. CT -- February 28, 2022

Weekend twitter: some on social media suggested this would be a "Lehman weekend" when the market opened today, and that "the Fed" has no arrows left in its quiver to respond. 

As of later afternoon, Monday, first trading day after severe sanctions put into effect, we are not yet seeing the evidence of a "Lehman weekend."

US equity markets: apparently "we" all survived. 

I don't watch the markets and I don't watch CNBC during such volatility as we see now. I haven't watched CNBC now for three weeks, I suppose and don't miss it one bit. 
There's really no way to do any analysis; and, recommendations to buy, sell, or hold, are no more than hunches by individuals. However, having said that, one can get a pretty good picture of the flip side: what the market is telling us about world events. 
Based on what little I know with regard to the market today, it appears that a) crude oil is still a big deal; and, b) the Russian-Ukraine conflict remains not much more than a regional event. 
What will be most interesting is if the Russian economy can implode and not materially affect the rest of the world. I saw a headline that the Russian central bank was scrambling to buy gold and yet the price of gold hardly moved. At the close, the dollar hardly moved (up 0.1 percent) and gold had gone up 1%. Hardly scary.

Covid: I see mainstream media is reporting that "ahead" of the State of the Union Address, the White House is dropping "the mask mandate." Details to follow. 

I have read and am reading disparaging comments with regard to this decision. The folks making those comments remind us that more folks than ever are sick and testing positive for Covid-19, most likely most of them with the omicron variant. 

Those who make those remarks appear to be misinterpreting what this is all about. This may or may not be political but it does not have anything do with the number of cases, even though the White House says that. I will argue that the "delay" in removing the mask mandate was not a delay at all but rather in line with CDC guidelines and public health officials. I have no complaints.

I continue to look at the glass half full, and not half empty.

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