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Monday, January 17, 2022

Random Look At The Hess EN-Joyce Wells -- January 17, 2022

There are several recurring memes regarding the Bakken, e.g.,

  • the decline rate;
  • daughter wells don't do as well as parent wells;
  • high density infills are ruining the Bakken;
  • running out of drilling sites;
  • halo effect doesn't exist;
  • rig counts matter (don't take that out of context);
  • others.

It's all in the eyes of the beholder. For me, I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. It's always entertaining to find exceptions to the memes. Note: I didn't say the memes are not "accurate"; I'm simply saying they are commonly-repeated comments about the Bakken and I find it interesting to find / post exceptions. People with strong biases and inappropriate exuberance do things like that.

It's important to note that my perspective is from the small mom-and-pop mineral owner in North Dakota who often see this as simply a lottery and not particularly interested in investing in companies that are drilling or working in the Bakken. 

Here's another example. 

A long time ago I started tracking the Hess EN-Joyce wells for some reason. I've long forgotten why. I probably had no reason except that it was an "early" pad and I was curious to see how this would play out. Note: Joyce is a family name and that may have had some effect on why I followed the pad. The "family name" had nothing to do with these wells; it was simply a coincidence. 

Hess was not known for great wells in the "early" Bakken boom but has certainly improved over time.

I track the Hess EN-Joyce wells here

Note: I've never considered the Manitou oil field a particularly interesting or prolific field. 

Either this area or these wells (or perhaps both) are going to be fascinating to watch over the next ten years. I think this one pad will address a lot of the memes noted above. 

Two examples:

The first well, the parent well: less than 100K after a decade but Hess is still coaxing it along.

  • 17887,165, the parent well, off-line; never did well; will be interesting to see if it comes back on line; came back on line, 6/21; off line again, 8/21; 165, Hess, EN-Joyce-156-94-1720H-1, Manitou, t6/09; cum 95K 11/21; intermittent production; struggling;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021295151441141140
BAKKEN10-202100220000
BAKKEN9-202111280000
BAKKEN8-2021749949994454651036
BAKKEN7-20213124812495422826779091768
BAKKEN6-202123134212022434145114510
BAKKEN5-20210000000

 Halo effect;

BAKKEN7-20213124812495422826779091768
BAKKEN6-202123134212022434145114510
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210070000
BAKKEN2-202127475871710
BAKKEN1-20212111103141081080
BAKKEN12-20200020000
BAKKEN11-2020131291220
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200070000
BAKKEN7-2020131211331451541540
BAKKEN6-2020293403472824414410
BAKKEN5-2020313543542614654650

Initial production: 

BAKKEN11-20093016751750607154415440
BAKKEN10-20092214411336259134313430
BAKKEN9-20091812561305876188718870
BAKKEN8-200931273527431561403440340
BAKKEN7-200931454145972483616461640
BAKKEN6-20092543324186269868546222632
BAKKEN5-20098172116021557107101071

The most recent well:

  • 37978, conf-->drl/A, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, 33-061-04836, HUGE WELL, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 286K 8/21; fracked 4/1/21 - 4/8/21; 10,97 million gallons of water; 85.5% water by mass; note how fast that frack was -- seven days. With regard to the memes, did anyone expect this particular well to produce in excess of 63,000 bbls of oil in one month? That's almost more than what the parent well produced in ten years.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20216217022124332565456540
BAKKEN10-202111579158296318956895680
BAKKEN9-20213020353203461916132419324190
BAKKEN8-2021311931219396229702913328144989
BAKKEN7-20212729953299543068448117458122305
BAKKEN6-20213025835260313669143614352838331
BAKKEN5-202131633356303210594411666210221814444
BAKKEN4-2021253265259528883277656

And we move on.

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