Notes From All Over, Thursday The Thirteenth -- January 13, 2022

Can we end the lunacy?  Covid-19 and Sweden.

• 2019: historic low annual morality (pre-Covid)
• 2020: higher mortality, similar to 2013 (year of the plague)
• 2021: last year -- historic second low

Investors:

• TSM, a proxy for AAPL: up $3.06, up 2.4% yesterday; futures today: up $5.67, up 4.3%.
• QCOM: yesterday, up $1.02; futures, today, up again
• NVDA: after huge fall, seems to have bottomed, in futures today, up nicely in pre-market;
• HES: up a bit;
• EOG: down slightly
• CVX: down yesterday; flat in pre-market trading today:
• SRE: flat today; this $124 stock is trading at $136
• AAPL: this $145 stock is trading at $175
• RIVN: up 3.5% yesterday; trading at its IPO; slightly negative today in pre-market trading;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Map of the day: North American bear habitats. If you zoom in, you will see there are no bears left on Wall Street.

Returns: all those ESG hedge funds? At risk of missing record returns are now back to buying oil companies.

US oil production: EIA forecasts record average production in 2023 -- that's next year -- production forecast to be 600k bopd greater than 2022 average;

• 2022e: 12.4 million bopd -- forecast based on $63-WTI
• 2021e: 11.8 million bopd
• 2020: statista says US hit 16.5 million bopd in 2022; link here.
  
• 2019: 12.3 million bopd (current record); statista says US record was 17.045 million bopd
  

Big discrepancy between statista and EIA: obviously they're measuring / reporting differently. But I do believe the 30-second elevator number is 12 million bopd is being produced by the US. Regardless, the US is the world's largest producer. EIA report here.

Most honest comment ever, on shale:

With regard to EIA's 2023 forecasts, I'm a bit skeptical; notably we will run out of DUCs by then, but shale has always surprised me (to the upside). Javier Blas.

Permian carbon capture: Permian's largest CCS project in New Mexico. Lucid Energy.

Pet peeve: when someone asks me if I got the text message? It would be a lot more efficient to just make a declarative statement ... "John said ...." Instead of, "Did you get John's message?

Jobless claims: continuing claims finally back to pre-Covid

PPI: not bad at all. Dow jumps on PPI and jobless numbers.