EVs -- Commentary -- January 5, 2022

Note: WTI just crossed (going up) $78. Whoo-hoo. 

Updates

Later, 12:36 p.m. CT: what are the three top reasons why folks don't buy pick-up trucks? Answer:

• they are pick-up trucks;
• they are expensive to buy;
• they are expensive to fuel;

New paradigm: why folks are going to love all-electric pick-up trucks:

• they are pick-up trucks;
• they are no more expensive than the current Teslas being sold;
• they are incredibly inexpensive to fuel.

Original Post

I was slow to "coming around" to EVs but slowly I'm starting to get "a feeling" for what's going on or how it plays out.

A disclaimer: for EVs to become mainstream there is still a huge infrastructure build out that will be required, and a recognition that forty percent of Americans live in apartments or rental homes, where individuals have less control over availability of in-home EV charging stations.

EVs can be divided into at least seven categories:

• POVs, non pick-ups: family sedans, SUVs, cross-overs; across all income sectors, including luxury
• POVs, pick-up trucks: farm, ranch, urban cowboys;
• commercial, personal rentals: Hertz, Enterprise, U-Haul;
  
• commercial, last mile: minivans, vans, neighborhood delivery vehicles, US Postal Service
• commercial, pick-ups: construction; landscaping / lawn; pool maintenance;
• commercial trucks, long haul:
• commercial trucks, specialty:

In the POV sector, the big story will be pick-up trucks. 

And that makes sense. I'm used to paying $20 to fill up my little Honda Civic but I see sales of $70 or more when someone fills up their F-350. A lot of those folks pay in cash. These folks are going to love not going to the service station and paying that kind of money. In addition, if the pickup truck is being used for work, less down time for oil changes and routine maintenance. I think EV pick-ups sales are going to be huge, and right now, it appears Ford has the advantage. 

In the commercial truck, specialty sector, I am very, very biased toward Daimler. 

Rental, fleets, neighborhood small business: I don't know how the other sectors play out, but my hunch is that the US government (USPS), Amazon, Hertz, Enterprise, U-Haul will pick winners and losers when it comes to two of the sectors. It's very possible, U-Haul could be the next big commercial company to announce transition to EVs. 

POV cars/SUVs: up for grabs. 

Commercial trucks, long haul ("18-wheelers," "semis"): up for grabs. Daimler might be big in this arena overseas but not so much in the US.