$100 Oil? Morgan Stanley Says "Yes" -- January 21, 2022

$100: Morgan Stanley joins the long list of analysts predicting $100-oil. MS' timeline: 2H22, by the end of 2022. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the second half of the year, becoming the latest major Wall Street bank to expect triple-digit oil prices by the end of 2022.

The oil market is headed to a “triple deficit” of low inventories, low spare production capacity, and low investment.

The bank now expects oil at $100 in the third and fourth quarters of this year, lifting its previous Q3 and Q4 forecasts from $90 and $87.50 a barrel, respectively.

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Active rigs:

$85.14	1/21/2022	01/21/2021	01/21/2020	01/21/2019	01/21/2018
Active Rigs	28	12	53	67	58

Three new permits, #38752, - #38754, inclusive:

• Operator: Ovintiv
• Field: Westberg (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Ovintiv has permits for three Clear Creek Federal permits, to be sited in SESW 36-152-97;
• they will be sited between 530 FSL and 490 FSL and 1471 FWL;

Eighteen permits renewed:

• Enerplus (7): the "whale" pad -- an Orca permit; a Baleen permit; a Sei permit; an Omura permit; a Blue permit; a Brydes permit, and a Narwhal permit, all in Dunn County;
• Hess (6): six BB-Federal permits in McKenzie County;
• Whiting (3): three Brehm permits in Mountrail County
• Slawson (2): two Armada Federal permits in Mountrail County (or as the NDIC types it, the "Mountrial" County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35772, 3,067, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-3H, Sand Creek, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 59k 11/21; see this post;
  
• 35773, 2,239, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-2TFHU, Sand Creek, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 63K 11/21; see this post;
• 37407, 1,437, CLR, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production,