The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 12/28/21

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

John Madden, Dead, At Age 85 -- Details Pending -- December 28, 2021

He was a football savant—named head coach of the Oakland Raiders at age 32, he won a Super Bowl in the 1976 season, and didn’t have a losing year in a full decade on the sideline. On TV, he never talked down to his audience. Football is a complex sport, often described through stiff wartime lingo, but Madden cut through the bombast and made it sound like backyard fun, using newfangled Telestrator technology to diagram schemes as if he was sketching them in the sand.

He was always gently selling—the playmaking, the atmospherics, the coaches, the stars, and especially the lesser-known fellows on the line, because he’d been one of those. Madden loved hirsute centers, rumply ends and roly-poly nose tackles, and on any given Sunday, he’d make household names out of them, too. He began selecting an All-Madden Team, full of his kind of guys, tough men who played with broken thumbs and ate bolt screws for breakfast.

He was both a critical phenomenon and a relentless populist. Madden on TV spoke like he was sitting next to you in an airport bar, except if you knew anything about Madden, you knew he’d never be in the airport. He always took the train, then a customized bus—a choice owing to claustrophobia and a bad episode on a flight while with the Raiders.

Who Knows? December 28, 2021

With regard to energy right now, the most fascinating story is who will turn out to be "right" when the crude oil story is told in 2022.

The forecasts are across the entire continuum, all the way from those who argue there is a huge supply / demand imbalance that will drive crude oil prices back down to $40.

Others say the demand / supply imbalance will be so severe in mid- to late-2022 that we will see $160-crude oil.

The "technical data," the fundamentals, history suggest we should see significantly higher prices for crude oil in 2022, but at the same time, "we" always seem to find a way to muddle through and the "powers that be" will be able to manage any "shortage" of crude oil. I have absolutely nothing to contribute to this conversation. It will simply be fascinating to watch. But I am investing as if the "technical data," the fundamentals, history turn out to be correct.

Danger zone.

Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins

The Beginning Of The End Of Covid-19 -- December 28, 2021

Wow, I'm in a good mood. I think I mentioned this once before on the blog, or maybe it was in a sidebar, an e-mail conversation with a reader.

With regard to the whole Covid-19 pandemic, there are three arenas, but unlike the typical Venn diagram, the three arenas do not overlap:

the science;
the "Fauci" component; and,
the politics.

Some might argue the three arenas do overlap. Maybe they do. Doesn't matter. Whatever.

Up until recently, all three arenas were continuing to grow in size with no indication of any "end" in sight.

Until "now."

The political arena is yet to play itself out, all the way, perhaps, to the US Supreme Court ruling on Federal and OSHA mandates.

The "Fauci" component is imploding. Dr Fauci, himself, is most likely about ready to go down in flames in the eyes of the American public and perhaps even the mainstream media. Quarantines lasting two weeks long and all the other policies nearly destroyed the global economy, and now it turns out, like most respiratory viral infections, Covid-19 required maybe five days of quarantine. Imagine how different things would have been these past two years had five-day quarantines, along with some other less draconian policy changes, been the norm. In a "just" world Dr Fauci would be held accountable. He will simply fade away.

That leaves the third arena, the science. This "thing" is literally coming to an end in front of our eyes. The NFL struck the first blow.

Elsewhere, I've linked supporting documentation that "proves" this is all over, literally and figuratively, and perhaps some day I will link that site. But not now.

For now, this is absolutely fascinating. This is truly the beginning of the end of Covid-19 as a virus of which to be afraid. But, wow, I wish we knew more how Spanish flu simply disappeared following the late, fourth peak, occurring in January - April 1921.

I'm in a great mood for two reasons with regard to what's going on with Covid-19 right now. First of all, I'm glad, that as an infectious disease, it is the beginning of the end, regardless how that occurs.

The second reason I'm in a good mood is because the evidence is now staring us in the face, as they say, proving that the pandemic is in its final stages. This will be absolutely fascinating.

I'm not saying the second and third arenas ("the Fauci component" and the politics) won't prolong the agony, all I'm saying is that this virus has pretty much burned itself out as a virus of which to be concerned.

Scientists, both medical scientists and political scientists, have learned a lot from this virus.

End Of The Line, The Traveling Wilburys

That would be enough to say, I suppose, but think about this. The Spanish fly mysteriously abruptly ended in 1921, to be followed by the "Roaring Twenties."

The Young And Beautiful, Lana Del Rey

From the wiki link:

The spirit of the Roaring Twenties was marked by a general feeling of novelty associated with modernity and a break with tradition, through modern technology such as automobiles, moving pictures, and radio, which brought "modernity" to a large part of the population. Formal decorative frills were shed in favor of practicality in both daily life and architecture. At the same time, jazz and dancing rose in popularity, in opposition to the mood of World War I. As such, the period often is referred to as the Jazz Age.

Now, 2021:

jazz and dancing, music: ?
modern technology such as automobiles: EVs
moving pictures and radio which brought "modernity" to the masses: AR-based hardware --> the metaverse

History may not repeat itself but it does rhyme.

What an exciting time to be alive.

I'm back to watching CNBC. I had not watched it since the flash crash, "Thanksgiving Friday," with minor exceptions. Today, I watched a little bit, not much, but I can hardly wait to watch what tomorrow brings. I'm not sure if Jim Cramer is taking the week off; I will be disappointed if he's not there, at least on Friday.

It's too bad Louis Rukeyser is no longer around.

A Closer Look At Slawson's Three New Permits -- December 28, 2021

Updates

January 25, 2023:

38725:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	12972	12418	42732	8519	8220	149
BAKKEN	10-2022	27	11485	12149	45869	7102	6117	848
BAKKEN	9-2022	5	1508	0	8610	923	0	896

38726:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	26007	25439	6135	19693	19480	63
BAKKEN	10-2022	27	29436	30080	8622	18200	16730	1335
BAKKEN	9-2022	3	1674	0	1428	1015	0	1000

38727:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	25	19646	19032	5433	13058	12703	230
BAKKEN	10-2022	18	14671	15440	8424	8021	7344	586
BAKKEN	9-2022	4	1673	0	1998	904	0	883

November 7 - 8, 2022: DUCs reported as completed --

38727, 795, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H, Big Bend, t--; cum 36K 11/2;
38726, 1,083, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 57K 11/22;
38725, drl/A, Slawson, Sauger Federal 5 SLTFH, t--; cum 26K 11/22;

Original Post

Slawson doesn't drill many wells in the Bakken, but when they do, they drill some great wells.

Three new permits, #38725 - #38727, inclusive:

Operator: Slawson
Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
Comments:

Slawson has permits for two Sauger Federal wells and one Cannonball Federal well, all in SWSW 22-152-91;

to be sited 550 FSL and 525 FWL and 625 FWL;

From this pad:

Sauger Federal wells run north.
Cannonball Federal wells run north.

Note: these new permits are for wells in Big Bend oil field. The older Sauger Federal / Cannonball Federal wells are clearly in the Big Bend oil field, also, but their scout tickets show these wells in Van Hook oil field, a field several miles to the south.

Wells of interest, along section line, 22/27-152-91:

To the west:

18717, 1,306, Slawson, Sauger Federal 1-22H, Van Hook, t4/10; cum 421K 10/21;
18170, 1,382, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1-27-34HH, Van Hook, t5/10; cum 490K 10/21;

To the east:

21039, 626, Slawson, Sauger Federal 3-22H, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 265K 10/21;
21038, 454, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 3-27-34HH, Van Hook, t12/11; cum 549K 10/21;
20099, 1,080, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 2-27-34HH, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 406K 10/21;

Parent well sited in NENE 22-152-91:

20107, 1,060, Slawson, Sauger Federal 2-22H, Van Hook, t11/11; cum 384K 10/21;

Slawson With Three New Permits; WTI Hits $76 -- December 28, 2021

Global warming wallops California: nine feet of snow buries California mountains as brutal cold invades US -- Axios.

record-breaking snowfall, Sierra Nevada Mountains
major interstates closes
Northstar California Resort picked up fifteen inches since Monday
some one-week snowfall totals may eclipse ten feet
at UC Berkeley's Central Sierra Snow Lab: 202.1 inches have fallen since December, making it the snowiest such month on record there; third-snowiest month of all time

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: closes at $76.01

Active rigs:

76.01	12/28/2021	12/28/2020	12/28/2019	12/28/2018	12/28/2017
Active Rigs	32	13	56	67	50

Three new permits, #38725 - #38727, inclusive:

Operator: Slawson
Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
Comments: Slawson has permits for two Sauger Federal wells and one Cannonball Federal well, all in SWSW 22-152-91; to be sited 550 FSL and 525 FWL and 625 FWL;

Four permits renewed:

Whiting: four State Federal permits in McKenzie County, NENW 16-148-99;

FWIW: I Can Now "Air Drop" Images To Brandon's iPhone With A Single Click -- What A Great Country -- December 28, 2021

FWIW: Landman Offer For Minerals -- December 28, 2021

Reader sent me this random note. Offers from two different landmen for two different holdings:

Williams County, section 30-153-99: $6,720 / net mineral acre
McKenzie County, section 2-153-101: $6,666.67 / net mineral acre

I replied to the reader that landmen generally offer "xx%" of ultimate likely value.

Hummers? Here, Hold My Beer -- December 28, 2021

The Mercedes-Benz Zetros, link here:

introduced in 2008
off-road truck for extreme conditions
designed to be compatible with the USAF C-130 Hercules a/c -- wow!
also fits standard German railway carriage
although normally used as a truck, the Zetros has also been put to work as an off-road tractor unit in the middle east

Also here:

Clearing Out The In-Box -- December 28, 2021

Covid-19:

flashback, Joe Biden's chief of stiff, June 24, 2020: "I've been saying since March, 2020, that we can't beat Covid with an "articles of confederation" response. We need a national government .... solution. Donald Trump won't use it to beat this killer disease.....
now, Joe Biden: "There is no federal solution. This gets solved at a state level."

Dr Fauci's head just exploded

NYC accounts for 25% of all active Covid cases currently in US (it was either NY or NYC, I forget which; doesn't matter; I don't live in either)

Whimpering end to the madness. Link here. If link breaks, short video of --

Joe Biden calling it quits with regard to Covid
leaving DC for DE
no mask

Lessons learned, link here.

Can LNG tankers "turn on a dime"? You be the judge. Link here.

Bitcoin: in free-fall? Or simply a return to the 200-day average?

Logistics: link to The WSJ --

rail will surge;
end of "just in time" delivery
retail takes a page from "mom-and-pop": stockpile and keep the pantry full; this is a tectonic shift in retail ordering, how "stuff" is stored; where "stuff" is stored

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.46%. Down.
DXY: link here. 96.13. Yawn.
Silver: link here. Right now, for me, this is most interesting as I get ready to buy some more silver. $23.225. Up 1.035.
CBOE volatility index: link here. 18.12. Up 2.5%. Yawn.

Lego: top sellers. On my wish list:

The Fed: oh, by the way, the Fed won't raise rates three times in 2022 -- it's an election years. One and done, Perhaps two and through, But no three-peat.

One Well Coming Off The Confidential List -- WTI At $76+ -- December 28, 2021

Spare capacity / peak oil: Russia seen missing its May target for pre-pandemic oil output. Reuters. Russia is unlikely to hit its May target of pre-pandemic oil output levels due to a lack of spare production capacity but could do so later in the year, analysts and company sources said on Tuesday.

December output 10.9 mln bpd, on par with November
Novak has said output to return to pre-crisis level by May
companies lack spare production capacity

Covid-19: amazing how fast CNBC jumps on bandwagon congratulating Joe Biden ("there is not a federal solution") and the CDC ("cutting the quarantine time in half, from ten days to five days") and professional sports, NBA and NFL ("test only if symptomatic"). I've never seen so many smiling faces on CNBC.

Logistics: end of "just in time" delivery philosophy.

Investing: trucking vs rail -- rail will be the huge winner going forward.

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