One Well Coming Off The Confidential List -- WTI At $76+ -- December 28, 2021

Spare capacity / peak oil: Russia seen missing its May target for pre-pandemic oil output. Reuters. Russia is unlikely to hit its May target of pre-pandemic oil output levels due to a lack of spare production capacity but could do so later in the year, analysts and company sources said on Tuesday.

• December output 10.9 mln bpd, on par with November
• Novak has said output to return to pre-crisis level by May
• companies lack spare production capacity

Covid-19: amazing how fast CNBC jumps on bandwagon congratulating Joe Biden ("there is not a federal solution") and the CDC ("cutting the quarantine time in half, from ten days to five days") and professional sports, NBA and NFL ("test only if symptomatic"). I've never seen so many smiling faces on CNBC.

Logistics: end of "just in time" delivery philosophy. 

Investing: trucking vs rail -- rail will be the huge winner going forward.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$76.22	12/28/2021	12/28/2020	12/28/2019	12/28/2018	12/28/2017
Active Rigs	32	13	56	67	50

Tuesday, December 28, 2021: 85 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 340 for the year:

• 36996, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 8-27H,

RBN Energy: Qatar stresses scale in new round of LNG expansion. 

Among the 21 countries able to liquefy methane and export LNG, Australia, Qatar, and the U.S. are the hands-down leaders, holding more than half the world’s liquefaction capacity among them. For now, Australia holds the top position but its capacity buildout is all but complete. While a number of liquefaction projects are planned Down Under, only one has reached the final investment decision (FID) stage in 2021, and it’s relatively small. Future growth seems much more likely to come from the two other big guns. Developers in the U.S. are cautiously thawing the plans for LNG projects they put on ice in mid-2020, when global natural gas prices slumped along with economies during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. And in February, Qatar, which was runner-up to Australian capacity until it slipped to third place due to recent U.S. additions, took FID on the first of two supersized projects to expand its LNG capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Qatar’s expansion plans and how they relate to developments elsewhere.