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Monday, November 22, 2021

Reminder -- ICYMI -- RNB Energy's Update On Oasis Petroleum -- November 22, 2021

RBN Energy: a new day for Oasis Petroleum as it delevers, focuses on free cash flow.  Yes, of course, it is archived.

With the market dislocations brought on in 2020-21, many if not most E&Ps have been reexamining their strategies and making changes. A common result has been a deemphasis on capex and expansion and a renewed focus on increasing free cash flow — and with that excess cash reducing or eliminating debt and rewarding shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. 
A prime example of a producer taking this approach is Oasis Petroleum, a Bakken-focused E&P that a year ago this week emerged from COVID-induced bankruptcy filing and has since taken a number of additional steps to position itself as a reliable money-maker, even if crude oil prices were to slide to significantly lower levels. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ongoing trend among producers to rethink and rework their strategies as energy markets recover.

The RBN Energy blogs remain available for several days but will eventually disappear behind a paywall. 

Thirty-Three Active Rigs; Petro-Hunt With Five New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- November 22, 2021

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

Active rigs:

$76.75
11/22/202111/22/202011/22/201911/22/201811/22/2017
Active Rigs3313576254

Five new permits, #38667 - #48671:

  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Charlson (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Charlson has permits for five USA wells in section 3-153-95; 
    • the wells will be sited in SESE 3-153-95;
    •  between 1072 FSL and  1271 FSL and and between 294 FEL and 360 FEL;
    • see actively producing well in that section down below;

Five permits renewed:

  • XTO (3): three Ruby State Federal permits, all in McKenzie County
  • Liberty Resources Management Company (2): a Christine permit and an LTM permit, both in Mountrail County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37499, 1,926, CLR, Harrisburg 6-34H, Indian Hill, no production data;

The Petro-Hunt actively producing well in same section where permits above were issued:

  • 34654, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3D-10-6H, Charlson, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 211K 9/21; 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2021281829818
8-20213312313094
7-20213234411540
6-20213418813475
5-20212900413883
4-2021271051514
3-20212585323267
1-20211028274

Active rigs:

Note: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Operator

Well

NDIC File #

Rig

CLR

Rolf Federal 7-17H

38299

Patterson 901

CLR

LCU Ralph 4-27H

37013

H&P 492

CLR

LCU Reckitt Federal 8-22H

36999

H&P 456

CLR

Charolais South Federal 7-10H2

37905

Nabors B27

CLR

Bang 9-4H1

28606

AES 4

CLR

Whitman FIU 13-34HSL1

38533

Nabors B6

CLR

Thorp Federal 8-28H

38518

Nabors B1

CLR

Flint Chips Federal 16-SHSL

38151

H&P 454

CLR

Whitman FIU 7-34H1

38494

Cyclone 38

Crescent Point

CPEUSC Pankake

38556

Nabors 21

Crescent Point

CPEUSC Austin

35410

Noble 4

Enerplus

Minnow …25H

36991

True 40

Grayson Mill

Jay 24-13F 6H

38612

Patterson 811

Hess

CA-E Burdick ….8

38003

Nabors X24

Hess

BL-S Ramberg … 5

36642

Nabors X27

Hess

EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1

38397

Nabors X28

Hunt

Quill … 3

38534

H&P 640

Iron Oil Operating

Antelope 3-17-20H

38459

Nabors B18

Koda

Stout 3410-2BH

37797

Cyclone 35

MRO

Weekes 14-8TFH

38593

H&P 259

MRO

Cody 11-18H

38587

H&P 535

MRO

Phillip 41-4TFH

37997

Nabors X-10

Oasis

Lindvig Beck Federal … 5B

38525

Nabors B26

Oasis

Soto 5097 12-3 2B

38333

Nabors B13

Ovintiv

Wisness State ….5H

38546

H&P 516

Petro-Hunt

Mongoose 149 …3H

28830

H&P 515

Petroshale

Crockett Federal 1TFH

36893

Stoneham 16

Sinclair

Grasslands Federal … 1H

38493

Unit 411

Slawson

Rainmaker Federal 7-25-36TFH

38456

Unit 414

Summit Carbon Solutions

Milton Flemmer 1

38594

T&S Drilling 1

True Oil

Northern State 31-36

37495

True Drilling 39

Whiting

Miller 31-15H

37413

Patterson 806

Whiting

Kannianen 11-5-2HU

38521

Patterson 808

Notes From All Over; X-North Dakota Natural Gas Pipeline -- Monday, Thanksgiving Week, November 22, 2021

MDU: acquires two construction materials companies. Link here:

  • Baker Rock Resources: Beaverton, OR
  • Oregon Mainline Paving:
  • with reach into California, Idaho and Washington

North Dakota natural gas pipeline: I assume this has been previously posted but cannot find it because, apparently, this pipeline doesn't have a name yet. Maybe it does, I don't know. Frm KXNET online:

  • from the Bakken to Minnesota state line;
  • $150 million from North Dakota's ARPA funds as well as $150 million from federal government;
  • along US Highway 2, from Williston, to Grand Forks, and then south to Fargot
  • the Bakken’s two major export pipelines, Northern Border and Alliance, go through Minnesota, Iowa, and to the Chicago market. ND Economic Development and Finance Director Josh Teigen explains that because Iowa has a greater existing pipeline infrastructure, the state holds a competitive advantage over ND.
  • that was November 1, 2021; apparently North Dakota landed the pipeline but the story is a bit confusing;
  • for now, let's call this the X-North Dakota natural gas pipeline;  behind a paywall at Informum;

Weekly Covid-19 vaccine rollout data: link here.

  • prior to Biden mandate: trending toward 700,000 vaccinations / day being given in the US
  • after the Biden mandate: this past week -- 1,521,815 vaccinations given

****************************************
At An Undisclosed Location -- In The Bat Cave

US SPR At 18-Year Low; XOM Still WIthdrawing Oil From The SPR In Wake Of Hurricane -- November 22, 2021

I have made major, major changes to the way I manage the blog. It will be transparent (or "unnoticed") by readers.

I am absolutely thrilled. 

It has re-invigorated my interest in the blog. 

I had three goals:

  • get back to more updates on wells and pads; something I had been neglecting due to the IT issues at the NDIC;
  • de-clutter the blog; fewer posts on non-Bakken news, especially, posts which could be construed as "political";
  • lengthier "background" posts which can be linked in shorter "twitter-like" links and thus de-clutter the blog.

Meanwhile, while I'm off line, spend some time on "Focus on Fracking."

One data point needs to be added to most recent "edition" of "Focus on Fracking":

SPR at an 18 1/2 year low 

recent weeks we've been pulling oil out of the SPR & building up commercial storage....the only reason i've seen is that it's "apparently still part of an emergency loan of oil to Exxon in the wake of hurricane Ida…"

Exxon is out of oil?  come on...
One happy club: politicians in Washington and Big Oil.
 
If XOM is "out of oil," they are simply managing their assets. LOL.

If the US SPR is an 18-year low, that's very similar to the Japanese SPR, reported earlier today.

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List; RBN Energy On Oasis; Oasis Surging -- November 22, 2021

RBN Energy: focus on Oasis today! See below.

Hess: more and more, a pure-play Bakken play. TotalEnergies, COP to buy Hess out of Libya -- Argus -- link here.

Active rigs:

$75.78
11/22/202111/22/202011/22/201911/22/201811/22/2017
Active Rigs3113576254

Monday, November 22, 2021: 32 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 286 for the year:

  • 36231, conf, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-95H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;

Sunday, November 21, 2021: 31 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 285 for the year:

  • 37658, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 5-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,

Saturday, November 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

  • 38082, conf, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, no production data,
  • 36229, conf, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
  • 35484, conf, Oasis, Nikolia Federal 5397 42-33 4B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --:
Friday, November 19, 2021: 27 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 281 for the year:
  • 37659, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 36895, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7HU, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: a new day for Oasis Petroleum as it delevers, focuses on free cash flow.  Yes, of course, it is archived.

With the market dislocations brought on in 2020-21, many if not most E&Ps have been reexamining their strategies and making changes. A common result has been a deemphasis on capex and expansion and a renewed focus on increasing free cash flow — and with that excess cash reducing or eliminating debt and rewarding shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. A prime example of a producer taking this approach is Oasis Petroleum, a Bakken-focused E&P that a year ago this week emerged from COVID-induced bankruptcy filing and has since taken a number of additional steps to position itself as a reliable money-maker, even if crude oil prices were to slide to significantly lower levels. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ongoing trend among producers to rethink and rework their strategies as energy markets recover.

Oasis: up $3.03 / share; up 2.42%; trading at $128. Phenomenal. A year ago traded at $32 / share.

Early Morning -- November 22, 2021

NFL overnight:

  • Custer at the Little Big Horn.
  • Russell Wilson re-thinking all that talk earlier this summer.
  • wow, what a comeback; Ben nearly pulled it off;

Great day on Wall Street

  • Brandon stays the course with renomination of Jay Powell.the progressives lost

Breaking: the 21st UK "utility provider" collapses

  • Bulb, a large UK gas and electricity retailer serves nearly two million customers
  • now in the hands of a "special administrator"; code for Bulb "too big to fail"
  • customers will not get cut off; rates will be capped; losses will be covered by rest of UK ratepayers

Got coal: the new transitional fuel.

  • Inner Mongolia produced almost four million tons of coal on November 20, 2021, a record daily output. Link here.

Oil:

  • COP26 asked producers to stop producing oil
  • they did
  • now they are desperate for more
  • Alex Kimani has an excellent essay
  • by the way, states exactly what I saw a couple of days ago
  • two factions in the White House on this: ideologues vs political realists

Over at the "investor's page":

  • 10-Year Treasury: link here. Still below 1.6% but just barely.
  • DXY: link here. Up nicely in early trading; traders happy with the Powell renomination.
  • Silver: link  here. Flat at $24.78.
  • CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. At 17.93, slightly higher but but well below the three-month high (25.5). Traders really happy with the Powell renomination.

EV, tracked here. Ford, Rivian abandon joint venture. Ford will "go it alone" to produce 600,000 EVs per year.

EV scorecard just a few days ago, link here:

  • Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford -- GlobalFoundries
  • Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
  • Tesla -- chips (?)

Landscape changed:

  • Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford out -- GlobalFoundries
  • Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
  • Tesla -- chips (?)
  • Lucid - chips (?) -- Casa Grande, AZ

ISO NE, link here.

  • New England grid regulator divides the "cost structure" into deciles.
    • blue, very low wholesale costs: 1st - 2nd deciles
    • green, moderate, sweet spot wholesale costs: 3rd - 5th deciles
    • yellow, warning: 6th decile
    • beige-brown, expensive: 7th - 9th decile
    • red, severe, very, very expensive: 10th decile
  • for example, 10:43 a.m. ET, ISO NE at 3rd decile, except for eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire, which are in the 4th decile.
  • deciles generally related to overall demand
    • impacted to a degree by renewable energy

Overnight -- November 22, 2021

My prediction was wrong. I wrote earlier this morning. I was correct that the decision would be announced today. The progressives in the House "lost."

Prediction, Fed chief: Lael Brainard.

  • presidents are change agents
    • Jay Powell: old school; nothing new; same mandates: jobs, inflation
    • Lael Brainard: new school; will add a third mandate: green energy
  • will change story for at least one day
    • take people's minds off high gasoline prices, other failed policies
    • if doesn't appoint Brainard, Brandon will be torn apart by the "woke"
    • speaking of which, I wonder how Alec Baldwin's Rust is coming along?
  • announcement: today (on new Fed chief, not Rust update)

Death: Peter Aykroyd, age 69; no cause disclosed

Best story overnight and, yes, it comes out of Canada 

Thanksgiving tips: how to save money this week, NBC, I can't make this up;

  • NBC's suggestion: don't serve turkey
  • recommendation has nothing to do with cost, but rather, if "you don't serve turkey, fewer people might cover over and  that would you money, also"
  • it's not called the peacock network for nothing

On tap: Legacy Fund deposit for November, 2021. 

Dashboards: can't recall if I've posted the November dashboards.

Global energy crisis:

  • EU, UK getting all the attention
  • in fact, Japan is probably at the top of the list among G20, for energy crisis
  • Japan's wholesale spot power price surged to highest level ever for this time of year;
    • rainy weather reducing solar output
    • utilities curbing output to save LNG supply for winter
    • oil needs to be released to back up natural gas shortages for electricity, heating
    • Japan's wholesale power price for next-day delivery surged; highest level in ten months; a 60% jump in one week; link here;

Blogging work today:

  • EVs: tracked here.
    • Tesla: sedans, pickups, crossovers
    • Rivian: pickups
    • Lucid: high end luxury sedans
    • AAPL: unknown, but tea leaves suggest sedans, maybe crossovers, minivans; perhaps something completely novel
      • at some point, and very soon now, Apple must announce manufacturing site / partner
  • ludicrous: ignoring what GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda are doing in EVs
    • unlikely that the Big Five will roll over to Tesla and Rivian
  • 600,000: that's the "30-second elevator speech" --
  • union vs non-union favoritism
    • may end up in court
    • may end up in Mexico 
  • links to close out

Most interesting factoid this week: Norwegian oil consumption

  • goes full Monty on EVs
  • oil consumption pretty much unchanged over ten years, link here;

Most interesting energy story not being reported:

  • Daimler Benz -- biggest truck company in the world
    • huge early mover into EVs
    • yes, but ---- it turns out DB says hydrogen will be just as important
  • looking for 50/50 split on EVs/HVs
  • story is being completely missed; link here;
  • apparently this is a big, big deal in UK

Most laughable story all week:

  • now that oil companies have cut back on production per COP26, politicos now can't seem to get enough oil
  • Morton's Fork;

*************************************
Thinking Out Loud

Investing: not ready for prime time.

This is what happens when you watch CNBC all day long:

  • old investment rule no longer applies: 60/40 -- 60% stocks / 40% bonds
  • new investment rule: 80/20 -- 80% "traditional" stocks / 20% meme stocks

The mix: traditional non-tech blue chip / blue chip tech / meme stocks

  • short horizon/conservative/risk averse: 40 / 40 / 20
  • longer horizon/more speculative/need for adrenaline rush: 10 / 40 / 50
  • the Reddit / Robinhood crowd: 0 / 20 / 80

The speculative mix:

  • 10%: in one index fund or BRK-B (buy and hold forever)
  • 40%: FAANG-M (buy, hold long term, adjust holdings per momentum swings)
  • 50%: Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Bitcoin (tickers will change as often as monthly; churn to newest meme stock on weekly basis or even daily basis)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.