Overnight -- November 22, 2021

My prediction was wrong. I wrote earlier this morning. I was correct that the decision would be announced today. The progressives in the House "lost."

Prediction, Fed chief: Lael Brainard.

• presidents are change agents
• Jay Powell: old school; nothing new; same mandates: jobs, inflation
• Lael Brainard: new school; will add a third mandate: green energy
• will change story for at least one day
• take people's minds off high gasoline prices, other failed policies
• if doesn't appoint Brainard, Brandon will be torn apart by the "woke"
• speaking of which, I wonder how Alec Baldwin's Rust is coming along?
  
• announcement: today (on new Fed chief, not Rust update)

Death: Peter Aykroyd, age 69; no cause disclosed

Best story overnight and, yes, it comes out of Canada.  

Thanksgiving tips: how to save money this week, NBC, I can't make this up;

• NBC's suggestion: don't serve turkey
• recommendation has nothing to do with cost, but rather, if "you don't serve turkey, fewer people might cover over and  that would you money, also"
• it's not called the peacock network for nothing
  

On tap: Legacy Fund deposit for November, 2021. 

Dashboards: can't recall if I've posted the November dashboards.

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Global energy crisis:

• EU, UK getting all the attention
• in fact, Japan is probably at the top of the list among G20, for energy crisis
• Japan's wholesale spot power price surged to highest level ever for this time of year;
• rainy weather reducing solar output
• utilities curbing output to save LNG supply for winter
  
• oil needs to be released to back up natural gas shortages for electricity, heating
• Japan's wholesale power price for next-day delivery surged; highest level in ten months; a 60% jump in one week; link here;
  

Blogging work today:

• EVs: tracked here.
• Tesla: sedans, pickups, crossovers
• Rivian: pickups
  
• Lucid: high end luxury sedans
  
• AAPL: unknown, but tea leaves suggest sedans, maybe crossovers, minivans; perhaps something completely novel
• at some point, and very soon now, Apple must announce manufacturing site / partner
  
• ludicrous: ignoring what GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, Honda are doing in EVs
• unlikely that the Big Five will roll over to Tesla and Rivian
• 600,000: that's the "30-second elevator speech" --
• to be in the EV game, one must deliver at least 600,000 vehicles annually by 2025; otherwise just a niche player
• Apple may be the exception
• union vs non-union favoritism
• may end up in court
• may end up in Mexico 
• links to close out
• Lucid
  
• CBNC on Lucid, September 28, 2021;
• Motley Fool on Lucid, March 2, 2021: is this a joke?
• Reuters on Lucid, September 29, 2021; are you kidding me?
• this year's (2021) goal: 577. Yes, no typo. Fivehundredseventyseven.
• did I read somewhere Lucid now has a market cap greater than GM?
• Lucid search: ludicrous link.
• one-year, XL Fleet Corp; link here. Can we say ludicrous again?
• and not atypical for all the EV SPACs announced in the past year
• these look like shale companies
• Apple Car could double company's revenue and market value -- Morgan Stanley, November 19, 2021;
  
• talk about malarkey; no one has any idea how to "value" AAPL any more
• copper: China's copper premium spiked to highest in years, link here;
  
• others noting it, also;
  

Most interesting factoid this week: Norwegian oil consumption

• goes full Monty on EVs
• oil consumption pretty much unchanged over ten years, link here;

Most interesting energy story not being reported:

• Daimler Benz -- biggest truck company in the world
• huge early mover into EVs
• yes, but ---- it turns out DB says hydrogen will be just as important
• looking for 50/50 split on EVs/HVs
• story is being completely missed; link here;
• apparently this is a big, big deal in UK

Most laughable story all week:

• now that oil companies have cut back on production per COP26, politicos now can't seem to get enough oil
• Morton's Fork;
  

*************************************
Thinking Out Loud

Investing: not ready for prime time.

This is what happens when you watch CNBC all day long:

• old investment rule no longer applies: 60/40 -- 60% stocks / 40% bonds
• new investment rule: 80/20 -- 80% "traditional" stocks / 20% meme stocks

The mix: traditional non-tech blue chip / blue chip tech / meme stocks

• short horizon/conservative/risk averse: 40 / 40 / 20
• longer horizon/more speculative/need for adrenaline rush: 10 / 40 / 50
• the Reddit / Robinhood crowd: 0 / 20 / 80
  

The speculative mix:

• 10%: in one index fund or BRK-B (buy and hold forever)
• 40%: FAANG-M (buy, hold long term, adjust holdings per momentum swings)
• 50%: Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Bitcoin (tickers will change as often as monthly; churn to newest meme stock on weekly basis or even daily basis)

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