REMINDER: Apple special event today, 12:00 noon CT.
Bitcoin: continues to surge. Pre-market, up 560 points, now trading above $61,000.
WTI: $83.56, pre-market.
Minnesota: "No
pipelines for environmental reasons? Fine, deal with the same oil via
rail! Congratulation! 👋 Railroad venture boosts the number of oil
trains in Minnesota https://t.co/3dwfpwKXAc https://t.co/i9lVeG1gxE" /
Twitter. Link here.
OPEC: Bloomberg Energy on Twitter: "OPEC and its allies once again fail to
pump enough oil to meet their output targets, exacerbating the supply
deficit supply as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic
https://t.co/E5Y3ZNzwxn" / Twitter. Link here. This is even more interesting given the fact that Brent is trading around $85. Also here, whoops.
Japan: Javier Blas on Twitter: "OIL MARKET: Japan becomes the second G7 nation
after the U.S. to publicly call on oil producers (read OPEC+) to boost
output amid surging prices above $85 a barrel. https://t.co/1RExfKQxBW" /
Twitter. Link here.
India: "India's
sharp revival in #gasoline appetite, surpassing even pre-pandemic
levels, has prompted its refiners to increasingly queue up to import
lighter crudes in recent months, but the fourth quarter could see
changes in this trend. https://t.co/EXLWLgCwPO #Petrol #Diesel #Gasoil
https://t.co/PkbBHT8hC4" / Twitter. Link here. GASOLINE REBOUND MAKES LIGHT CRUDE FLAVOR OF THE MONTH IN INDIA.
Lighter grade crudes, such as US West Texas Intermediate, Nigeria's
Akpo and Kazakhstan's CPC Blend have been in demand among Indian
refiners as they have tried to maximize production of in-demand
gasoline, which as come at the cost of reduction in purchases of some
heavier Middle Eastern crudes, analysts said.
Kang Wu, head of global oil demand and Asia analytics at Platts,
said India's mobility index continued to improve from 172% in September
to over 200% at the start of October with the easing of pandemic
movement restriction measures.
"Indian refiners are looking to adjust their crude oil import mix
in favor of sweeter and lighter grades that can be refined to maximize
production of light distillates, to feed increased production of
gasoline needed to meet the recent surge in demand for the fuel," Kapoor
added.
Market becoming increasingly tight: Latest
Argus Global Markets weekly says Opec+ is impervious to signs that the
market is becoming increasingly tight "Oil prices are less volatile than
other energy sources because the supply chain can be more flexible. But
supply, and suppliers, are proving inflexible so far."
https://t.co/UpwzVeHW0Q" / Twitter. Link here.
Putin: tea leaves suggests Russia not providing that extra natural gas to Europe as "promised." If anything, extra Russian gas going to Asia. From twitter:
"🚨No
gas for you🚨 No evidence of an increase in Russian gas supplies to
Europe next month in today’s keenly awaited pipeline capacity auctions,
despite hints from Putin and friends in recent weeks. European gas
prices jump almost 18% https://t.co/YcAjHeRSug" / Twitter.
Old news: Hart
Energy on Twitter: "Once gone to waste, flared gas is becoming the
energy source of choice to power advanced computing systems used for
cryptocurrency. https://t.co/plxOJhjVsx" / Twitter. From twitter.
Colin Powell: wow. CNBC is focusing on the "breakthrough death." They are trying very, very hard to convince listeners this was rare, very unusual for a Covid death in a person fully vaccinated. It's almost embarrassing. Embarrassing because they don't seem to know the statistics. There have been a lot of fully vaccinated deaths. Joe Kernan talking with governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire (R).
************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs, daily update by NDIC COB:
$83.57
| 10/18/2021 | 10/18/2020 | 10/18/2019 | 10/18/2018 | 10/18/2017 |
|---|
| Active Rigs | 29 | 16 | 61 | 70 | 55 |
No wells coming off confidential list.
RBN Energy: the energy crunch, decarbonization goals, forecasts, and Putin.
If the ongoing global energy crunch is teaching us anything, it’s
that decarbonizing the world’s economy may be even more difficult than
many had figured. While a strong case can be made for reducing — or even
slashing — greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting to low-carbon and
no-carbon energy sources, the sheer magnitude of the undertaking means
there are likely to be major setbacks and compromises along the way.
Setbacks like having to turn to coal-fired generation this winter to
help keep parts of the Northern Hemisphere warm and productive, and
compromises like acknowledging that sometimes the wind doesn’t blow, the
sun doesn’t shine, and utilities need to burn a lot more natural gas to
make up the difference — assuming there’s enough gas around to burn,
that is. One more takeaway from current events is that energy security
in the form of being able to count on your counterparties is a pretty
big deal. (We’re looking at you, Vladimir Putin.) With all that in mind,
in today’s RBN blog, we examine the long-term outlook for energy and
GHG emissions as the United Nations’ climate change conference in
Glasgow, Scotland, looms on the horizon.
You could say that how all this plays out is anyone’s guess. And by
“this” we could be referring to either the energy supply/demand
situation this winter in the northern half of the globe or the prospects
for meeting the mid-century goals for decarbonization set by the U.S.
and other participants in the Paris Agreement nearly six years ago.
Short supply and soaring energy prices, for natural gas in particular,
are likely to lead to a lot more coal being burned in green-as-can-be
Western Europe this heating season. It’s a hard pill to swallow, and a
dose of harsh reality — there’s simply not enough gas around to ensure
that everyone there can stay warm and still meet the area’s energy
needs, especially if it’s an unusually cold winter or if the region’s
wind farms and other renewable energy sources continue to be erratic
producers.
Those issues, along with the social impact of higher commodity prices
on still-recovering and vulnerable populations are sure to be hot
topics at the aforementioned UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26).
After Paris, the world seemed to say, “We need to make a change and
invest in the future.” The key question this time around will be “How
long?” How long will the current energy crisis last? How long will
demand for hydrocarbon-based energy continue to hold up (or expand)
before demand starts to decline? How long will it be until low- or
no-carbon technologies can reliably satisfy demand for energy and all
the other things hydrocarbons are used for? And this: How long before
the effects of too-high GHG emissions lead to catastrophe?
