Early Numbers, Monday Morning -- October 18, 2021

REMINDER: Apple special event today, 12:00 noon CT.  

Bitcoin: continues to surge. Pre-market, up 560 points, now trading above $61,000.

WTI: $83.56, pre-market.

Minnesota: "No pipelines for environmental reasons? Fine, deal with the same oil via rail! Congratulation! 👋 Railroad venture boosts the number of oil trains in Minnesota https://t.co/3dwfpwKXAc https://t.co/i9lVeG1gxE" / Twitter. Link here. 

OPEC: Bloomberg Energy on Twitter: "OPEC and its allies once again fail to pump enough oil to meet their output targets, exacerbating the supply deficit supply as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/E5Y3ZNzwxn" / Twitter. Link here. This is even more interesting given the fact that Brent is trading around $85. Also here, whoops.

Japan: Javier Blas on Twitter: "OIL MARKET: Japan becomes the second G7 nation after the U.S. to publicly call on oil producers (read OPEC+) to boost output amid surging prices above $85 a barrel. https://t.co/1RExfKQxBW" / Twitter. Link here. 

India: "India's sharp revival in #gasoline appetite, surpassing even pre-pandemic levels, has prompted its refiners to increasingly queue up to import lighter crudes in recent months, but the fourth quarter could see changes in this trend. https://t.co/EXLWLgCwPO #Petrol #Diesel #Gasoil https://t.co/PkbBHT8hC4" / Twitter. Link here. GASOLINE REBOUND MAKES LIGHT CRUDE FLAVOR OF THE MONTH IN INDIA.

Lighter grade crudes, such as US West Texas Intermediate, Nigeria's Akpo and Kazakhstan's CPC Blend have been in demand among Indian refiners as they have tried to maximize production of in-demand gasoline, which as come at the cost of reduction in purchases of some heavier Middle Eastern crudes, analysts said.

Kang Wu, head of global oil demand and Asia analytics at Platts, said India's mobility index continued to improve from 172% in September to over 200% at the start of October with the easing of pandemic movement restriction measures.

"Indian refiners are looking to adjust their crude oil import mix in favor of sweeter and lighter grades that can be refined to maximize production of light distillates, to feed increased production of gasoline needed to meet the recent surge in demand for the fuel," Kapoor added.

Market becoming increasingly tight: Latest Argus Global Markets weekly says Opec+ is impervious to signs that the market is becoming increasingly tight "Oil prices are less volatile than other energy sources because the supply chain can be more flexible. But supply, and suppliers, are proving inflexible so far." https://t.co/UpwzVeHW0Q" / Twitter. Link here. 

Putin: tea leaves suggests Russia not providing that extra natural gas to Europe as "promised." If anything, extra Russian gas going to Asia. From twitter:

"🚨No gas for you🚨 No evidence of an increase in Russian gas supplies to Europe next month in today’s keenly awaited pipeline capacity auctions, despite hints from Putin and friends in recent weeks. European gas prices jump almost 18% https://t.co/YcAjHeRSug" / Twitter. 

Old news: Hart Energy on Twitter: "Once gone to waste, flared gas is becoming the energy source of choice to power advanced computing systems used for cryptocurrency. https://t.co/plxOJhjVsx" / Twitter. From twitter. 

Colin Powell: wow. CNBC is focusing on the "breakthrough death." They are trying very, very hard to convince listeners this was rare, very unusual for a Covid death in a person fully vaccinated. It's almost embarrassing. Embarrassing because they don't seem to know the statistics. There have been a lot of fully vaccinated deaths. Joe Kernan talking with governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire (R).

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, daily update by NDIC COB:

$83.57	10/18/2021	10/18/2020	10/18/2019	10/18/2018	10/18/2017
Active Rigs	29	16	61	70	55

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: the energy crunch, decarbonization goals, forecasts, and Putin.

If the ongoing global energy crunch is teaching us anything, it’s that decarbonizing the world’s economy may be even more difficult than many had figured. While a strong case can be made for reducing — or even slashing — greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting to low-carbon and no-carbon energy sources, the sheer magnitude of the undertaking means there are likely to be major setbacks and compromises along the way. Setbacks like having to turn to coal-fired generation this winter to help keep parts of the Northern Hemisphere warm and productive, and compromises like acknowledging that sometimes the wind doesn’t blow, the sun doesn’t shine, and utilities need to burn a lot more natural gas to make up the difference — assuming there’s enough gas around to burn, that is. One more takeaway from current events is that energy security in the form of being able to count on your counterparties is a pretty big deal. (We’re looking at you, Vladimir Putin.) With all that in mind, in today’s RBN blog, we examine the long-term outlook for energy and GHG emissions as the United Nations’ climate change conference in Glasgow, Scotland, looms on the horizon.

You could say that how all this plays out is anyone’s guess. And by “this” we could be referring to either the energy supply/demand situation this winter in the northern half of the globe or the prospects for meeting the mid-century goals for decarbonization set by the U.S. and other participants in the Paris Agreement nearly six years ago. Short supply and soaring energy prices, for natural gas in particular, are likely to lead to a lot more coal being burned in green-as-can-be Western Europe this heating season. It’s a hard pill to swallow, and a dose of harsh reality — there’s simply not enough gas around to ensure that everyone there can stay warm and still meet the area’s energy needs, especially if it’s an unusually cold winter or if the region’s wind farms and other renewable energy sources continue to be erratic producers.

Those issues, along with the social impact of higher commodity prices on still-recovering and vulnerable populations are sure to be hot topics at the aforementioned UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26). After Paris, the world seemed to say, “We need to make a change and invest in the future.” The key question this time around will be “How long?” How long will the current energy crisis last? How long will demand for hydrocarbon-based energy continue to hold up (or expand) before demand starts to decline? How long will it be until low- or no-carbon technologies can reliably satisfy demand for energy and all the other things hydrocarbons are used for? And this: How long before the effects of too-high GHG emissions lead to catastrophe?