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Monday, August 23, 2021

Pemex Fire In Gulf Of Mexico -- Shuts In 444,000 BOPD -- Reuters -- August 23, 2021

I think folks are aware of the Pemex fire in the Gulf of Mexico, previously posted. I was unaware how much oil was shut in due to the fire: 440,000 bopd? Not fact-checked. Link here

Direct link to Reuters.


Mexico, prior to the fire, was producing less than 1.75 million bopd. Link here.

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The Sports Page

Monday Night Football is airing/playing in the background. I'm really not watching. It's the fourth quarter. New Orleans, 23, Jacksonville Jaguars, 6.

But then my ears perked up, as they say. Trevor Lawrence is not playing. Apparently he played the first half and was then pulled after a pretty mediocre start (and it sounds like I'm being generous).

Deep into the fourth quarter the commentators spent a good ten minutes on how "badly" Trevor Lawrence performed. They didn't use that "exact" word but that's what they were saying. Ten minutes of talking about how bad Trevor Lawrence played. A lot of cliches. A lot of trite statements. My favorite: "College football is different than the NFL." 

Reminds me of the Fitzgerald quote: "Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me."

It might be interesting to tune into First Take tomorrow morning. I haven't watched that television sports talk show in a long, long time.

Breitbart Is Wrong This Time -- August 23, 2021

I apologize. The subject line is incorrect. I don't know if Breitbart is wrong or not; all I can say is I disagree with their op-ed today.

I don't often disagree with Breitbart but in this case I definitely don't agree with them.

Again, to make things perfectly clear, I don't agree with the thesis below.

The most important message coming out of this year's Federal Reserve powwow in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is that it will not be coming out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which is officially the host of the annual monetary policy conference, announced on Monday that the conference was going to be all virtual. Teton County, where Jackson is situated, has recently gone into the high-risk category for covid infection. There were only an average of 16 cases per day reported in Teton recently, but that is a 76 percent increase from the average two weeks ago. Even fully vaccinated people are supposed to wear masks, which is not really a great garb for communicating intricacies of monetary policy during half-hour speeches. 
This is a microcosm of what is happening all across the country. Conventions are being canceled or made virtual. Airline and hotel reservations are being canceled. Dinner reservations are suddenly easier to come by. Convention centers, which pick up business in the fall, are finding events called off. For many urban economies across the country, these crucial sources of income are drying up. The hand-off from summer leisure travel to autumn business travel is almost certain to be fumbled.  
The resurgent virus showed up first in the spending data for the south but is now spreading across the country. The good news is that the rate of Delta variant infections is likely cresting in the south, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb. But that means that the rest of the country has weeks or months to go. Businesses that have pushed their office reopenings from September until October will likely have to announce further delays. As long as infections keep rising, there will not be a full reopening. 
While the reality of the Delta variant has already hit consumer confidence and retail spending, the broader implications likely have not. Namely, only a small share of the public and approximately zero of the punditry has acknowledged the risk that the Delta variant surge may not be the last but the first. There are many variants, and there will be many more. And there does not appear to be any plan—for businesses, for the economy, for society—for what will happen if the future holds a nearly endless series of covid tides. 
The stock market, in particular, is priced for covid fading into the shadows of memory. If that doesn't happen, a lot of the more aggressive valuations of the summer of 2021 will look foolish.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

Oasis WIth Five New Permits; Enerplus Renews Seven Permits; EOG Cancels Two More Hawkeye Permits -- August 23, 2021

YOLO, FOMO, now, add this one: DTGI.

  • Jim Cramer's take on today's market action: today's market move -- buying by those determined to get in.

NASDAQ: closes at record high.

CNBC: today's market -- different quotes / comments form various talking heads on Fast Money

  • PFE gets full approval; opens door for broad mandates
  • schools and Pentagon announce mandates
  • Jackson Hole: going virtual
  • the market does not stay down
    • two "down" days followed by an "up" day
    • dips are getting shallower and shallower
  • oil: not as good as it should have been; seems to have been a "technical" thing ("short covering")
  • more about "central bank" action
    • Fed governors take a step back; might be getting a bit nervous; virtual Jackson Hole
    • PMI sufficiently weak enough to perhaps not get a "hawkish" statement at Jackson Hole
    • it's all about the Fed
    • a lot of industrials oversold, but it's all about the Fed
  • Jackson Hole possibly not as important this time
  • inflation? gonna be a problem
    • surprised that rates didn't go higher today
    • ten-year treasury: technically, the yield went down but ever so slightly
    • none of the talking heads had much to say about "transitory" inflation; one talking head: stagflation;

Cryptocurrency: headline story in WSJ. Closer and closer to a tipping point. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.64
8/23/202108/23/202008/23/201908/23/201808/23/2017
Active Rigs2412646253

Five new permits, #38504 - #38508, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for five Ramirez permits in SWSE 32-151-96;
    • the wells will be sited between 423 FSL and 425 FWL and 1,699 FEL and 1,567 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: six permits in section 23-152-94: Joey, Joey, Boom, Koala, Possum, Quoll, and Potoroo, al in McKenzie County

Two permits canceled:

  • EOG: two more Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County canceled

Note: another FIU well -- Cuskelly FIU

Change of operator: three more wells added to the list Grayson Mill acquired from Equinor

Photo Of The Day -- August 23, 2021

August: summer doldrums.

My favorite chart, US money market fund monitor, link here. These folks are earning zero percent on their money. They are also ignoring the recent $1 trillion infrastructure bill already passed and the $3.5 trillion social infrastructure bill working its way through the US Congress.

Oil Prices Surge On Back Of Stronger Dollar -- CNBC -- August 23, 2021

Moments ago, CNBC just said that oil is surging today because of a stronger dollar. Oh, give me a break. 

The dollar is down 0.52% today, down to $92.98 (from CNBC, by the way). A stronger dollar drives the price of oil down, not up.  I wonder if the "talking head" misspoke? Be that as it may, the strength (or lack of strength) of the dollar today in now way accounts for a four-percent jump in the price of oil.

Link here.


I googled for a stock photo of an oil investor who shorted oil last Friday:

The Next Big Thing: Cryptocurrency

Updates

August 24, 2021: cryptocurrency and Visa.

August 24, 2021: Afghanistan, huge player in the cryptocurrency arena. Links to follow.

August 7, 2021: City of Williston to accept cryptocurrency; first in North Dakota; only the third such municipality in the US of A. Link here.

June 3, 2018: still bullish on cryptocurrency.

May 14, 2018: I'm a believer, and yes, it's still a cult.

Original Post

Re-posting from August 13, 2021:

Cathie Wood: I don't know if folks had a chance to read the AirMail.news story regarding Cathie Wood which I linked the other day. I can't find my post now which suggests I posted it and then took it down for some reason. Maybe it's there and I just can't find it. Whatever.

Anyway, I finally got back to the article and read it again. It's well worth the read if you've heard a bit about Cathie Wood and ARKK and don't know anything or very little about her. 

I was curious from where she came. I guess in Spanglish, I was curious de donde vino ella. LOL. [For those who do not know, Sophia and I are "learning" Spanish together using the Duolingo app and having boatloads of fun.]

An interesting story, Cathie Wood. Long story short, no glass ceiling for her:

  • oldest daughter of Irish immigrants, she is now 65 years old -- younger than I but much older than I realized;
  • grew up in Los Angeles; her coming-of-age years, the late 1970s?
  • graduated from University of Southern California, my alma mater, with a degree in finance and economics
    • mentored by Arthur Laffer, economist, trickle-down economics
  • Laffer helped her get a job at Capital Group, the huge LA-based asset-management firm
    • three years at Capital
  • moved to NYC to join Jennison Associates, another large asset-management firm
    • stayed at Jennison for eighteen years, cycling through various jobs
  • 1998, about forty-two years old: co-founded the hedge fund Tupelo Capital Management
  • three years later joined AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer and the manager of a $5 billion portfolio
  • 2014: "the story goes" -- Alliance not all that keen on her idea for actively managed exchange-traded funds; so about fifteen years after she joined Alliance, she founded Ark Tech EFT,
  • part of the seed money coming from Bill Hwang, the now defunct family office Archegos Capital (Archegos: another story this year)
    • it was a chance meeting with Hwang (or was it?).
  • Ark Investment Management: less than seven years after she started it, now more than $53 billion under management;

Street cred.

I was mesmerized when I first saw her in an interview on CNBC, or should I say when I first paid attention to her. It was as if, to plagiarize a phrase, "she emerged de novo like Minerva from the head of Zeus." 

De donde vino ella. Now I know.

Break, break.

Somewhere recently on the blog -- actually I guess that's in draft also -- recently I've become a convert to "bitcoin." I don't own bitcoin but I do know what it is and it will be a viable currency. Up until two weeks ago, I had no interest in "bitcoin," and pretty much ignored it. Now, 180° turn.

One of the better discussions during our family reunion was talking about technology. Many of my extended family members are high-functioning engineer-types who are involved in high-level technology at pretty big technology companies.

For "bitcoin" to become mainstream, I said there needs to be a tipping point. I mentioned that one of the "first" steps toward that tipping point was Square. 

The next step was that $29 billion deal with Australian Afterpay.

We have yet to see the "tipping point" itself but I know what that tipping point will be but I'm keeping it a secret. I don't want to give it away. LOL. Seriously, my skin is not thick enough to absorb the push back and laughter. But regular readers of the blog, knowing my craziness, interests, and posts, can probably guess. 

From the linked Airmail.news article:

As probably only Wood could do, she recently corralled billionaires Elon Musk, the co-founder and CEO of Tesla, and Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of both Square and Twitter (Wood's 17th-largest holding), to join her for an hour-long virtual panel discussion to talk about Bitcoin in all its wonderfulness. 

Apparently I wasn't the only one that enjoyed it -- a "full reload, July 21, 2021" at this link.

Enough of this, time to enjoy some music. 

Oh, before I get to the music, one last story from the linked Airmail.news story that almost knocked me off my chair. 

Quick: over at the sidebar at the right, I have something called "the next big thing." Quick, for those who have been reading the blog since the beginning, what was the "first" next big thing?

The answer: Netflix. 

For me Netflix was "the next big thing" when I first mentioned it on March 21, 2013.

So, what does that have to do with Cathie Wood? From the linked Airmail.news article: Cathie Wood's meeting with Bill Hwang was apparently completely innocent, unarranged. 

On CNBC, Cathie Wood said, "On our way back from that event, we --Bill Hwang and Cathie Wood -- were exchanging stock ideas back then -- this was back in 2014 or thereabouts -- and I know he bought into one of the stocks in which we had a high degree of confidence, Netflix."

Wow, wow, wow.

Street cred.

Why The Markets Don't Care About Afghanistan -- August 23, 2021

Two reasons.

First: no oil.

Second: GDP.

Quick: what's the GDP of Afghanistan and North Dakota?

  • Afghanistan:
  • North Dakota:

By state.

Not one state has a GDP lower than Afghanistan's.

Covid-19 Update -- August 23, 2021

Updates

Later, 10:00 p.m. CT: Japan -- the current surge began before the Tokyo Olympics ...


Later, 9:51 p.m. CT: tell me again the reason for a total lock down a year ago.

Original Post 

One of the most vaccinated states in the union, and no major professional events or other major indoor / outdoor events in the past month; no presidential birthday party bash; no motorcycle rallies: Oregon.

This corroborates what I've said all along regarding Wuhan flu. 

Link here

Most interesting, whereas the surge in active cases is being seen across most states (being worst in Oregon), Oregon is also unique in the surge in deaths attributed to Covid-19, something not seen in most of the other states. 


No one cares: everything suggests Americans have moved on. 

Think about this: if there was one photograph this past year that put Covid-19 into perspective for Americans -- well, actually there were two:

  • the first: that USAF cargo plane filled with 600 Afghan refugees and no one wearing masks;
  • the second: that photograph that refuses to go away -- the Texas politicos fleeing the state on a plane, cramped quarters; FAA requires masks on commercials flights; and these politicos not wearing masks.

Think about this: why Americans will power through future Covid-19 variant surges, no more lock downs:

  • Dr Fauci lost his credibility quite some time ago; previously posted;
  • Joe Biden was elected "on" the Covid-19 issue; Joe Biden is the poster child for masks and lock downs; and, now, like Dr Fauci, because of Afghanistan, Joe Biden has lost all credibility. Americans have tuned him out. 
Think about this: stay-at-home workers seems to correlate with corporate productivity. Who would have thought?

Off The Net For An Hour -- Off To Target To Buy Orange Juice -- August 23, 2021

Tipping point: the optics suggest the Covid-19 pandemic hype has peaked. At least in America. Saw it "in spades," as they used to say, all over the networks yesterday while surfing through sports. Speaking of which, I missed the end of the NASCAR race -- I went swimming -- who won?  [Spoiler alert: in order, top five: R. Blaney, W. Byron, K. Larson, K. Bush, and D. Hamlin. What I did watch was so enjoyable; so much better than the "fake" NFL pre-season games. Wow, talk about boring.]

But I digress.

The tea leaves suggest the Covid-19 pandemic hype has peaked. Another example, from Yahoo!

Delta might be hitting economic growth. Retailers aren't feeling the pinch.

Last week, two main stories featured prominently for markets and the economy: data showing the economic recovery slowing down and retailers reporting blowout second quarter results. ‌

In the Morning Brief last week, we covered a slowing housing market, economists cutting their forecasts for GDP growth, and more commentary about the idea of "peak growth" in this recovery cycle. All of which followed an August 13 report on consumer sentiment that revealed a shocking drop in confidence in the early part of this month amid the spread of the Delta variant, and a pickup in inflation. ‌

In the background of these developments, the stock market wavered. But a rally on Friday left the S&P 500 roughly unchanged on the week, and within shouting distance of record highs. And a quick glance at my colleague Brian Sozzi's reporting gives us a window into the kinds of results retailers churned out that helped buoy investor confidence.

‌ The week began with Walmart's earnings beating expectations, as executives told the Street the Delta variant wasn't changing consumer behavior. Target followed with a blowout quarter, and commentary that traffic to its stores hadn't been slowing down in recent weeks.

‌ But even as last week's earnings rush moved away from bellwethers like Walmart and Target, the news remained upbeat. ‌

TJX Companies, which owns TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, reported second quarter sales that beat estimates, and said sales have been "very strong" in the early part of the third quarter. Results from Foot Locker also topped expectations, with the company reporting same-store sales that rose nearly 7%, against Street estimates for a more than 1% drop in the second quarter. ‌

Even Macy's, which has been a laggard in the retail space for years, reported a blowout quarter while raising its full-year guidance. It also reinstated its dividend after having cut that payout to preserve cash during the early days of the pandemic. Delta might be hitting economic growth. Retailers aren't feeling the pinch.
Much more at the link. ‌

Common Denominator? Chariots On Fire -- August 23, 2021

Re-posting. The grammar is a bit awkward because I was unsure exactly what the writer of the linked article was saying. I'll leave it as is, and let folks fact-check it if they want.

Chariots on fire. How did I miss this one? We all heard the news on the $1 billion Chevy Bolt recall, but it turns out Hyundai recently announced a hefty recall, one of the most, if not the most, expensive in the industry in history, link here, April 15, 2021.

As of March 2021, Hyundai Motors had already made 82,000 recalls of its sold vehicles. Even though it is a minor figure in the auto industry in terms of numbers, the per-vehicle cost basis makes the recall to be one of the most expensive in the industry.

Its rival, GM, had recalled seven million vehicles because of faulty airbags by its 2020 fourth quarter. But the value of the recalls cannot compare with the value that Hyundai will incur despite the high number of recalled vehicles.

The expensive fault that Hyundai experienced affected some of its electric cars. The company received 15 reports on battery fires. Even though no injuries or fatalities occurred because the fires happened when the vehicles were shut and empty, the company has to replace the entire battery system at a total cost of $900 million.

The said overall cost translates to $11,000 per car. The price stands as “astronomically high,” according to CNN business news. When compared with the $157 that GM spent on each recalled car, Hyundai will incur hefty costs.

Hyundai stated that it would approach LG to negotiate about sharing the costs because the fault was out of a misaligned cell of a battery. However, LG seems hesitant to agree to the collaboration.

So, now we know:

  • for low-MPEG, it's costing in excess of $11,000 for a battery pack for these cheap cars
  • what does that say about high-end EVs? Asking for a friend.

Notes From All Over -- August 23, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Jim Cramer: four companies that can increase their prices and buyers won't balk: Netflix, Costco, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple. 

NASDAQ: hits all-time high.

S&P 500: hits an all-time high today.  

Dividends:

  • APA to pay today;
  • MNRL to pay later this week  (8/27/21)

PFE:

  • vaccine now has full FDA approval;
  • will buy Trillium, a cancer drug developer, in $2.3 billion deal

JNJ:

  • about the only blue chip stock that is negative in today's surging market
  • huge talcum powder overhang

ShiT: shops inside Target

  • first it was Starbucks, Toys 'R Us, then Ulta
  • will now add more than one hundred Disney shops to stores as holiday season approaches
  • Target is my favorite retail store; Amazon? Favorite e-tail
  • I can bike to Target in less tan two minutes; it's like going to local grocer in the old days
    • our local Target is making huge addition, but I don't know what
  • sells beer, wine; needs to find way to work with Texas to be allowed to sell spirits

Got profits? wind-turbine makers struggling; link to WSJ

The world’s appetite for green energy is greater than ever, but that isn’t translating into big profits for some of the companies behind the boom.

Top wind-turbine makers are struggling with lower earnings as rising raw- material costs, problems shipping the hulking machines, and uncertainty over the future of U.S. subsidies pressure their businesses.

Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA and Vestas Wind Systems A/S, two of the largest global manufacturers, reduced profit forecasts for the remainder of the year. General Electric Co., another leading turbine manufacturer, reported year-over-year growth in turbine sales but hasn’t turned a profit in that segment this year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Chariots on fire. How did I miss this one? We all heard the news on the $1 billion Chevy Bolt recall, but it turns out Hyundai recently announced a hefty recall, one of the most, if not the most, expensive in the industry in history, link here, April 15, 2021.

As of March 2021, Hyundai Motors had already made 82,000 recalls of its sold vehicles. Even though it is a minor figure in the auto industry in terms of numbers, the per-vehicle cost basis makes the recall to be one of the most expensive in the industry.

Its rival, GM, had recalled seven million vehicles because of faulty airbags by its 2020 fourth quarter. But the value of the recalls cannot compare with the value that Hyundai will incur despite the high number of recalled vehicles.

The expensive fault that Hyundai experienced affected some of its electric cars. The company received 15 reports on battery fires. Even though no injuries or fatalities occurred because the fires happened when the vehicles were shut and empty, the company has to replace the entire battery system at a total cost of $900 million.

The said overall cost translates to $11,000 per car. The price stands as “astronomically high,” according to CNN business news. When compared with the $157 that GM spent on each recalled car, Hyundai will incur hefty costs.

Hyundai stated that it would approach LG to negotiate about sharing the costs because the fault was out of a misaligned cell of a battery. However, LG seems hesitant to agree to the collaboration.

My favorite chart, US money market fund monitor, link here. These folks are earning zero percent on their money. They are also ignoring the recent $1 trillion infrastructure bill already passed and the $3.5 trillion social infrastructure bill working its way through the US Congress.


Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Up Almost Five Percent -- August 23, 2021

Rigs on fire: Pemex, Gulf of Mexico, off Campeche, Mexico.

WTI: jumps almost 5%; up over $3/bbl; trading at $65.17.

Oil stocks: surging. 

Autos
: Phil LeBeau -- huge apologist for auto industry; blows off the GM Chevy Bolt recall, saying in effect, "nothing to see  here," but does note GM stock is down 25% since early June, 2021. Phil said these were "old" battery design .... which raises the question ... GM was putting the "old" battery design into 2022 models. From social media:

This $1 billion on the Chevy Bolt is pretty wild. LG is legit as it comes when manufacturing batteries, but they they're still having problems that are causing cars to catch on fire. Chevy wants all production to be EV by 2035; I just don't see how people think this is realistic.

Bitcoin: $50K+. I've talked about my flip-flop on this recently.

Covid-19: delta has peaked. Despite.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: updated data COB.

$65.17
8/23/202108/23/202008/23/201908/23/201808/23/2017
Active Rigs24*
12646253

Two wells coming off confidential list:

Monday, August 23, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, August 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

  • 37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, producing, data not updated;

Saturday, August 21, 2021: 12 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 203 for the year:

  • 36078, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-11C-2-2H, Little Knife, no production data, 

RBN Energy: the ins and outs of natural gas storage, part 2.

The volume of natural gas in storage and the flow of gas into and out of it are among the most closely watched indicators in the U.S. gas market. That makes sense, given that these numbers provide important weekly insights into the supply-demand balance, gas price trends, the impact of LNG exports, and any number of other market drivers. However, what’s often ignored by those not involved in the day-to-day physical gas market are the mechanics and economics of storage itself. Who uses gas storage, and for what purposes? What are the value drivers for a storage facility? Why are there different types of gas storage contracts? How much does storage cost, and what do storage rates reflect? Today, we explore these and other questions.

In the decades leading up to the early 2000s, the U.S. gas market underwent a series of fundamental changes, each spurring the development of new storage capacity. First, starting in the 1910s, ’20s, and ‘30s, a number of depleted gas reservoirs were converted to storage facilities — initially in the Northeast, but then in other regions (yellow dots in Figure 1 map and yellow slice of pie chart to left). In the late 1940s and ’50s, another approach — “aquifer storage” — was introduced as an option for regions (primarily the Midwest) that needed gas storage capacity but lacked a sufficient number of depleted gas fields. Aquifer storage (red squares in map and red slice in pie chart to left) had an advantage over depleted-reservoir storage, namely that gas can typically be injected into and withdrawn from it more quickly. However, a disadvantage of aquifer storage is that it needs to be completely empty at the end of the heating season each year, or it can lose gas. The primary purpose of both types of storage facilities was — and is — to help balance seasonal swings in gas demand.