pipeline had been operational since November, 2019;
DAPL:
the court cancelled the certificate even though the pipeline is
operational, noting that “remanding without vacatur under these
circumstances would give the Commission incentive to allow ‘build[ing]
first and conduct[ing] comprehensive reviews later’ (Standing Rock
Sioux Tribe v. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 985 F.3d 1032, 1052 (D.C. Cir.
2021). We certainly do not wish to encourage such an approach given the
significant powers that accompany a certificate of public convenience
and necessity.”
Oh-oh:
US Army Corps will require a new Enbridge Line 5 EIS
"Scare" headline of the day: US could sell oil from the SPR to pay for the infrastructure bill.
OMG. How many times have we heard this?
So, what are we talking here?
In May/June, 2021, timeframe, US offered to sell nine million bbls of oil from the SPR. I don't know how much oil was actually sold. Successful bidders were to take delivery as early as May and deliveries were to be completed by June, 2021.
0.67 million bbls/day / 20 million bbl/day = 0.67 / 20 = 3.35%.
Bakken: one million bbls/day.
SPR sale of 20 million bbls/30 days = 0.67 million bbls/day, about two-thirds of what the Bakken produces.
The big question is to what degree the sale of SPR crude oil would meet the expected demand/supply gap?
All things being equal, selling oil from the SPR simply increases the storage deficit (link to S&P Global Platts).
Draining the entire SPR -- the entire SPR -- would raise $45 billion at current prices ($64). Link here.
$45 billion / $1 trillion = 4.5% -- LOL.
$7.5 billion for EV charging stations
Bottom line:
this will generate a lot of political rhetoric: selling SPR oil to pay for the infrastructure bill
won't amount to a hill of beans
such talk often affects price of oil
by the time the SPR oil runs through the overall system, it will have almost no effect on the price of gasoline
whether it affects price of crude oil is yet to be seen
if selling oil from the SPR has ever affected the price of oil:
it has been minimal;
it has been self-limited:
unless I missed something of consequence which is always possible;
Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. Matters not to me. I was just curious what the numbers even meant, in a ballpark way of thinking. Folks will run their own numbers and come up with their own conclusions. I look forward to the numbers Brian Williams and the NY Times staff come up with.
Still my favorite video, "really bad math." I think this is priceless. [This will be removed by YouTube.]
Look at the sixth column: the is the number of doses given in the previous 24-hours. One million doses/24 hours should run at least 1.5 million doses/24 hours, and some would argue, 2.5 to 4.0 million. Look at the last five days: the average is a paltry 713,882 doses.
Starting this fall:
by October, 2021, at least some of the Covid-19 vaccines should be "fully approved," none of this "emergency use authorized" stuff ;
here will be a push for everyone currently fully vaccinated to get a booster shot, for Covid-19, just like "season flu";
the big question is whether we "see" "seasonal flu" again: it all depends on the government's reimbursement rate for a "Covid-19" diagnosis vs a "seasonal flu" diagnosis;
right now, CDC statistics this past year suggest "season flu" has been eradicated.
A
B
C
E
F
Total Doses Administered
Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose
Fully Vaccinated
Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
********************************* Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$73.34
6/24/2021
06/24/2020
06/24/2019
06/24/2018
06/24/2017
Active Rigs
20
10
62
65
58
Seven permits canceled:
Crescent Point Energy (5): five CPEUSC Reed permits; all in Williams County; these wells were new names; my assumption: we will see these permits renewed
Oasis (2): one Grad permit and one Weisz permit, both in Mountrail County
Four permits renewed:
Enerplus (3): one Ridley, one Loggerhead permit, and one Aldabra permit, all in McKenzie County;
Petro-Hunt: one USA permit in McKenzie County
Nine new permits,, #38395 - #38403, inclusive:
Operators: Hess (5); CLR (2)
Fields: Robinson Creek (Dunn) , Jim Creek, Corral Creek
Comments:
38395, CLR, Pletan 8-18HSL, Jim Creek, lot 1 section 18-146-95 200 FNL 850 FWL;
38396, CLR, Dvirnak 10-7HSL1, Corral Creek, lot 1 section 18-146-95 200 FNL 895 FWL;
I've been traveling for the past few days and have not been able to keep up with the blogging, but I've tried to keep up with all the energy stories.
It's amazing how fast things change.
When things looked bleak for oil and gas four months ago, it seemed incredible the number of anti-oil, ESG articles, and support for renewable energy.
All of a sudden, the same sources are reporting an incredible number of bullish articles on oil. It's amazing what $75-oil will do to change the narrative.
HOU: new oil futures contract will trade under "HOU." Harold Hamm says new marker will overcome limitations of Cushing WTI contract. Link here. Folks might not that Cushing storage is already opening up. Previously posted. Also here at Rigzone.
Dallas Fed: "seventy-six percent of executives said they believe there will be a global crude supply gap in the next two to four years." Link here.
BP: says it will stick with oil and gas. Link here.
CVX: says it does not plan to shrink its conventional oil and gas business.
Norway: expands Arctic oil exploration now Biden has ceded the Arctic to Denmark, Norway, Russia, and China. Link here.
Ka-ching: oil producers on track to set $348 cash flow record. Link here.
The world’s publicly traded independent oil producers will make
record profits this year, surpassing the levels reached when crude hit
an all-time high near $150 a barrel more than a decade ago, according to
Rystad Energy.
Combined free cash flow from the sector is expected to surge to $348
billion, beating the previous high of $311 billion in 2008, Rystad said.
Key to the turnaround is U.S. shale, with the industry expected to
reverse years of losses in 2021 and make “super profits” of nearly $60
billion of free cash flow before hedges.
Surging oil prices will add to producers’ revenue, but profits will
be super-charged by executives determined to constrain capital spending
on new output, the Oslo-based consultant said in a note authored by
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research. This is the opposite of
previous cycles, when crude rallies prompted companies to spend heavily
on exploration and production in search of fresh supplies.
Ka-ching: oil, up; CAPEX, down = IOCs will make record profits this year, surpassing the levels reached when crude oil hit an all-time high near $150 / bbl more than a decade ago. Link here.
US gasoline: unexpected draw amid strong demand. Link here.
gasoline stocks fall 3 million bbls (means nothing to me without the denominator)
demand tests pre-pandemic highs (huge story)
crude oil stocks fall amid rising demand, sideways production (huge story)
Propane
prices at Mont Belvieu soared above $1/gallon on Wednesday — the first
time that’s happened in the month of June since 2014. This
buck-and-change price doesn’t come as much of a surprise for industry
insiders, however. U.S. propane inventories have been very skinny
lately, sitting at 56.2 MMbbl — or only 587 Mbbl above the five-year
minimum based on yesterday’s EIA data. At the same time, propane exports
have been riding high, averaging 1.3 MMb/d so far this year, up nearly
90 Mb/d from the same time frame in 2020, while production has remained
virtually flat over the past 18 months. Surprise or not, the spike past
$1/gal raises an important question: How high will U.S. propane prices
have to go before exports are reined in so U.S. inventories can
increase? Today, we discuss the key drivers behind the current price
level and our propane market outlook for the second half of the year.
