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Thursday, June 24, 2021

All Of A Sudden Folks Like The Crude Oil Story -- June 24, 2021

I've been traveling for the past few days and have not been able to keep up with the blogging, but I've tried to keep up with all the energy stories. 

It's amazing how fast things change.

When things looked bleak for oil and gas four months ago, it seemed incredible the number of anti-oil, ESG articles, and support for renewable energy.

All of a sudden, the same sources are reporting an incredible number of bullish articles on oil. It's amazing what $75-oil will do to change the narrative.

HOU: new oil futures contract will trade under "HOU." Harold Hamm says new marker will overcome limitations of Cushing WTI contract. Link here. Folks might not that Cushing storage is already opening up. Previously posted. Also here at Rigzone.

OPEC back in the driver's seat. Link here. Link at S&P Global Platts here.

Dallas Fed: "seventy-six percent of executives said they believe there will be a global crude supply gap in the next two to four years." Link here.

BP: says it will stick with oil and gas. Link here.

CVX: says it does not plan to shrink its conventional oil and gas business.

Norway: expands Arctic oil exploration now Biden has ceded the Arctic to Denmark, Norway, Russia, and China. Link here

Ka-ching: oil producers on track to set $348 cash flow record. Link here

The world’s publicly traded independent oil producers will make record profits this year, surpassing the levels reached when crude hit an all-time high near $150 a barrel more than a decade ago, according to Rystad Energy.

Combined free cash flow from the sector is expected to surge to $348 billion, beating the previous high of $311 billion in 2008, Rystad said. Key to the turnaround is U.S. shale, with the industry expected to reverse years of losses in 2021 and make “super profits” of nearly $60 billion of free cash flow before hedges.

Surging oil prices will add to producers’ revenue, but profits will be super-charged by executives determined to constrain capital spending on new output, the Oslo-based consultant said in a note authored by Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research. This is the opposite of previous cycles, when crude rallies prompted companies to spend heavily on exploration and production in search of fresh supplies.

Ka-ching: oil, up; CAPEX, down = IOCs will make record profits this year, surpassing the levels reached when crude oil hit an all-time high near $150 / bbl more than a decade ago. Link here.

US gasoline: unexpected draw amid strong demand. Link here.

  • gasoline stocks fall 3 million bbls (means nothing to me without the denominator)
  • demand tests pre-pandemic highs (huge story)
  • crude oil stocks fall amid rising demand, sideways production (huge story)

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