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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Oasis, Back In The Bakken, Has Two New Permits -- June 15, 2021

RIDE: no product; no CEO, no CFO (except a director now taking on those roles) was actually up 75 cents on a $10-stock on a day the market was down, tech was really down. Fundamentals no longer matter for these meme stocks. 

Ten-year Treasury: 1.489%.

Rate hikes: everyone agrees, earliest, 4Q22 but the really smart, credible folks don't see rate hikes until 2024. And even if they are wrong, the Fed will raise rates ever so slightly. GDP will be strongest since the Marshall Plan and rates are at zero percent. The economy is simply "on fire." And rates are at zero percent.

House prices: people are not yet buying these expensive houses with cheap dollars; they are buying these houses with money in the bank that accumulated during the lockdown, and they are buying these houses at really, really cheap rates.

Brent: $74.30. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$72.45
6/15/202106/15/202006/15/201906/15/201806/15/2017
Active Rigs1913616256

Two new permits, #38372 - #38373, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis:
  • Field: Camp (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for two Rey Federal wells:
    • #38372, loc, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B, NWSW 11-152-101, 1669 FSl 1221 FWL;
    • #38373, loc, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B, NWSW 11-152-101, 1662 FSl 1189 FWL;

Six producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 37713, drl/A, CLR, Morris 12-26H1, Oakdale, first production, 4/21; t--; cum --;
  • 37714, drl/A, CLR, Morris 13-26H, Oakdale, first production, 4/21; t--; cum --;
  • 37715, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2, Oakdale, first production, 4/21; t--; cum --;
  • 37716, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1, Oakdale, first production, 4/21; t--; cum --;
  • 37794, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 13-35H, Oakdale, first production, 4/21; t--; cum --;
  • 36273, SI/A, Hess, EN-Chamley-LW-156-93-0508H-1, Baskin, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 209K 4/21; 

The CLR Carson Peak / Morris wells are tracked here.

CLR is very, very active with these wells:
  • many of the wells are now "inactive," suggesting neighboring wells are being fracked;
  • several DUCs were reported as completed today;
  • several wells that were inactive are back on line;
  • several wells have produced well above 700K bbls crude;
  • most interestingly, four wells that were previously reported at "PNC" are now actively producing.

EVs Need Cheap Electricity, And Cheap Electricity Means Coal -- VW -- June 15, 2021


This tells me all I need to know about EVs, the need for cheap electricity, the need for coal ....

First Production Numbers For Petro-Hunt Well Re-Entered, Lengthened -- Looks Good -- June 15, 2021

This is a big one. 

If nothing else, the landmen should get excited.

From things that need to be followed;

So, here we go. New production update; file report with no update.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021251366213558550517961707210715
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20211800000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020145955630910282017866239
BAKKEN10-20201109001430142
BAKKEN9-202012690533300323
BAKKEN8-202021030291200
BAKKEN7-202021171748829022
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202836293722127746234543813
BAKKEN3-20203163936437280737430144144
BAKKEN2-20202949054875327438504183
BAKKEN1-20203152445270400489804682
BAKKEN12-20193148854832603510304887
BAKKEN11-201930370638131592496704758

Not Only Once, But Twice -- Jump In Production -- June 15, 2021

CLR's Angus and Angus Federal wells are tracked here

  • 20805, 487, CLR, Angus 3-9H, Three Forks, 28 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t2/13; cum 359K 3/20; subtle jump in production, 4/19; again, another jump in production 3/21; cum 378K 4/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202130757874607822923564452385
BAKKEN3-2021630472788116736242848702
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020151231130224216211236195
BAKKEN10-2020152095236015127722031552
BAKKEN9-2020100018180
BAKKEN8-20206324246745284600
BAKKEN7-2020312982323843241513625114
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202052870765975410
BAKKEN4-2020281682183548634322778342
BAKKEN3-202031200219344813898340179

Notes From All Over -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- June 15, 2021

Covid-19. Wow, wow, wow -- 

this was opined on the blog last year, now being supported by a scientific study -- a new analysis of blood samples from 24,000 Americans taken early last  year (2020) is the largest study to date to suggest the coronavirus popped up in the US in December, 2019.
People in these five states had Covid-19 before any reporting last year: Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Link to The WSJ.
Oil companies moving to renewables: low margins. And, boring, boring, boring. 

Equinor, pivoting to renewable energy, has lowered its expected returns in renewables (mostly offshore wind) to 4 - 8%, down from 6 - 10% as recently as October 2020). Wow. 
Memo to self: stay away from energy companies pivoting to wind, solar. Double-down on companies like CVX whose CEO says he will stay the course.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here
.

XOM: whispers -- dividend will be raised. I posted that note earlier this morning; it was an off-hand remark by Jim Cramer (?) on CNBC this a.m. Now this: XOM could rise 40% with big dividend growth. 

Exxon took drastic measures last year to conserve cash, even temporarily suspending matching payments to some employee retirement accounts. The dividend cost the company $14.9 billion, a hefty sum in a year when it made just $14.7 billion in operating cash and spent $21.4 billion on capital and exploration expenses. Exxon borrowed substantially, ending the year with $20.1 billion more net debt than it had in 2019. 
But that spending restraint and the recent increase in oil prices—to a two-and-a- half-year high—has changed Exxon’s fortunes this year. In the first quarter, Exxon was able to pay its dividend and capital expenses out of its cash flow.

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A Random Bakken Metric

Runs in Big Bend-Bakken oil field, April, 2021:

  • MRO:
    • wells: 4
    • crude oil: 10,063 bbls
    • per well: 2, 516 bbls/well
  • Slawson:
    • wells: 227
    • crude oil: 1,615,595 bbls
    • per well: 7,7117 bbls/well
  • White Butte Operations, LLC
    • wells: 2
    • crude oil: 2,366 bbls
    • per well: 1,183 bbls/well
  • Whiting:
    • wells: 2
    • crude oil: 7,950 
    • bbls per well: 3,975 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 235
    • crude oil: 1,635,974
    • per well: 6,962 bbls/well

Runs in Grinnell-Bakken oil field, April, 2021:

  • Whiting:
    • wells: 4
    • crude oil: 13,562
    • per well: 3,391 bbls/well
  • XTO:
    • wells: 69
    • crude oil: 59,532
    • per well: 863 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 73
    • crude oil: 73.094
    • per well: 1,001 bbls/well

Runs in Reunion Bay, April, 2021:

  • MRO:
    • wells: 258
    • crude oil: 983,409
    • per well: 3,811 bbls/well
  • WPX:
    • wells: 67
    • crude oil: 186,123
    • per well: 2,778 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 325
    • crude oil:  1,169,532
    • per well: 3,599 bbls/well

Notes From All Over -- June 15, 2021

Best part of the day:

  • Rick Santelli, CNBC. Wow, he sounded angry today. LOL. 

Second best part of the day:

  • Jim Cramer in the morning.


***************************
Retirements

One of the themes of the blog: Covid-19 expedited "2020 - 2035" -- that fifteen year span -- into a five-year span, "2020 - 2025." 

Exhibit A: retirements.

Multiple links:

The worst thing one can do if inflation is a) transitory, b) going to be worse than predicted, c) is longer than expected .... is retire. 

Will put additional strain on social security fund.

********************
Market

Amazon will pass Walmart in the next year or so as the largest US retailer -- Jamie Dimon. 

I have never been disappointed with Amazon.

WTI: up $1.04; number to watch today: $72. Trading at $71.94 at 8:52 a.m. CT, June 15, 2021.

Aerial Photos Of Valley City, ND -- Vern Whitten -- June 15, 2021

From Vern Whitten this morning!

Photos of Valley City, ND, taken yesterday.

Such an unbelievable state. Incredibly beautiful.

From space: the Earth appears to be a blue marble.

From 10,000 feet: the earth is really, really green (summer).

Vern Whitten would love to hear from you.

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

Bakken DUCs -- Update -- June 15, 2021

Data supplied by a reader.

Bakken wells: drilled, completed for the given month; DUCs during that month.






Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

121

819

Aug-19

122

144

797

Sep-19

110

87

820

Oct-19

116

108

828

Nov-19

96

88

836

Dec-19

94

86

844

Jan-20

99

98

845

Feb-20

94

99

840

Mar-20

94

108

826

Apr-20

69

32

863

May-20

33

14

882

Jun-20

18

16

884

Jul-20

18

26

876

Aug-20

19

30

865

Sep-20

18

51

832

Oct-20

19

46

805

Nov-20

20

39

786

Dec-20

20

46

760

Jan-21

20

49

731

Feb-21

19

40

710

Mar-21

25

47

688

Apr-21

27

52

663

May-21

29

56

636